Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter
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The five periods in the history of Earth that had the highest levels of extinction were all linked to climate change, fossil evidence shows.
The findings support fears that wild-life will be driven to extinction in the next few centuries in numbers to rival the death of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
Higher temperatures found to be associated with four of the mass extinctions were at about the same level that is forecast by climate change scientists for the next 100 to 200 years.
During each of the mass extinction events in the past 525 million years at least half of the animal and plant species were estimated to have been wiped out.
Estimates of the effect of global warming on animals and plants alive today suggest that between 20 and 30 per cent will die out if temperatures rise by 1.5 to 2.5C. Such a rise is thought by climate scientists to be likely before the middle of the century and extinction rates would be expected to rise with temperatures.
By the end of the century temperature rises of up to 6.4C (11.5F) are forecast unless the carbon dioxide emissions that are blamed for driving global warming are curbed.
Scientists looking at the fossil record have found that similar changes in temperature took place at the same time as each of the prehistoric mass extinctions. Of the five mass extinctions, the most recent was the Cretaceous-Tertiary, 65 million years ago, when temperatures were about 4C higher than today. A greenhouse climate, probably in conjunction with a meteorite strike, was thought by researchers to have played a role in killing off the dinosaurs.
The most devastating extinction was at the end of the Permian period, 251 million years ago, when an estimated 95 per cent of marine species and 70 per cent of land species were killed off. Temperatures were estimated to be about 6C higher than today. Four of the five extinctions were associated with greenhouse climates and only the earliest was linked to lower temperatures, when vast numbers of marine creatures died as glaciers formed and sea levels dropped.
Peter Mayhew, from the University of York, said: “Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner.
“If our results hold for current warming - the magnitude of which is comparable with the long-term fluctuations in Earth climate – they suggest that extinctions will increase.”
Tim Benton, of the University of Leeds, said: “When you look at the short-term, ten-million-year fluctuations we’ve shown there is quite a strong correlation between when things warm up and an increase in extinction rates.”
Professor Benton said that the outlook was bleak for many species, such as specialist plants in the Cairngorms that will die out in a warmer climate, but that evolution happened so fast that the extinctions would be followed by a rapid influx of new species. Butterflies, for example, may develop stronger wing muscles to reach landscapes emptied of competitor species, and eventually grow so different that they can be classed as new species.
The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society, concluded: “In the current transition from an icehouse to a greenhouse world, Earth history may help us to estimate future effects on biodiversity.
“Our results from the fossil record endorse those of ecological models which demonstrate that expected future warming will adversely affect biodiversity.”
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Kevin
Your are right............and wrong
In a very general sense, temperture increases now are not mediated by volcanic activity (not as much anyway), and the rate of temperature increase now is faster than has been thought to occur at many temperature increase phases of geological history. Therefore it is reasonable to show, that yes temperature increases in the past, caused by other factors, are correlated with increased extinction rate, and that regardless of what is causing the increase in contemporary temperature, it is feasable that it will lead to an increased extinction rate. This is also backed up by climate envelope models, so it cannot be dismissed as nonsense.
It is science, you just dont agree with it, and your language is not fitting with the debate!
Tom, Leeds, UK
To say anything with certainty we would have to have something called Physics, and that doesn't exist yet because people persist in pushing theories in front of the facts. Until Physics comes into being by following something called the Scientific Method all is lost. Do you know there are still "physicists" who say that Laithwaites gyroscopic ship drive system doesn't work despite several being built and demonstrated? Remember it was Michelson who said in the 1890's that everything was known and we would just be extending the theories into the 6th decimal place, ... it is on Michelson's experiment that all Einstein's work hangs or falls as Einstein himself said, perhaps why he went to such pains to discredit Dayton Miller's critique of that and similar experiments. Dayton was a Scientist, Einstein was a fraud who ensured the Michelson-Morley experiment, known colloquially as the Mickey-Mouse experiment, had not a null result but an anulled result. Physics? No, fraud, witchdoctory.
John Sinclair, dundee, UK
Thank god for that itâs about time we saw the planet sticking up for itself against the human race .
Looks like old mother nature will have the last laugh . so on this basis why worry about green taxâs
If we cant avoid the inevitable we should just inevitably get on with it .thereâs no point worrying there is âBâ all we can do
mark, stratford, warwickshire
Hmm, I thought we had >800,000 years of ice core data on temperature, co2 concentration etc. Why does this debate have to have become so irrational. The Times seems to be taking a measured view but its readers seem like they shoot first and ask questions later? Why is that? Can't the two sides actually listen to each other, criticize and test their own views as Karl Popper would suggest. To me it seems the probability of human causes of climate change is increasing and the correlation with the sun's activity is poor. It's like insurance: there is no perfect view of the future but the scenario of major human caused problems grows more likely by the day so we need to act. I wish it were not so as the world has plenty of other problems to tackle. Though I think there are huge opportunities to tackle the problem creatively, that will be good for the economy, reduce waste, reduce use of scarce fossil fuels and maybe like war time Britain be good for the national soul: an end to Eyorism.
ed sketch, Ann Arbor, USA
Not so long ago the world was flat according to popular opinion. Didn't make it true though. Just a little something to cinder for everyone that knows the answers to everything.
Sure global warming may not be true, but I for one hate breathing in the crappy air around london day in day out.
Justin, London,
Dr Kevin Law
Well said i agree totally with what you say and i have an idea why the politicians are so eager to get us on board the al gore bandwagon
by using FEAR on the poulation they can mould public opinion.
currently nuclear power is unpopular with the public so building more nuclear power stations is very unpopular .
the russians, americans and uk want to upgrade their old nuclear weapons in order to do this they need to build many more power stations but the public won't allow this to happen so they have to invent an enemy 'carbon' and tell us we are all going to die if we don't get rid of 'carbon'.so they persuade us to abandon fossil fuels as these produce carbon. we are already told this in the media every day. so if we phase out fossil fuels how do we produce our electricity ? the same governments who have demonised 'carbon' are not keen on wind farms and solar energy in fact they havn't told us yet what their solution is . enter nuclear power our saviour . smell a rat yet
col, leeds, uk
"mass extinction"
U.S has an easier method by using their nuclear arsenal. Now that is the one we all should be more concerned about.
stanzler, ny, usa
If people take the trouble to study the findings of dedicated scientists working in all aspects of Climate Change from Palaeoclimatology to Carbon Dioxide Sequestration you will come to realise the need for urgent action is real.
Join a local geological society in your area and become involved in the debate.
PK, Barnoldswick, UK
What a WONDERFUL result we have from the NATURAL PRUNING of past ages!
Why would we want to stop up all the Volcanos, Cows, and kill off all the bacteria devouring the rotting wood in the Rain Forests just to slow down the INEVITABLE weather cycles that have been going on for eons?
I am EAGER to see Mastadon roaming Canada, Russia, and Alaska ONCE AGAIN!
Don Dutkowski, CHILLIwack, B.C., Canada
251 million years ago? And we are still here? what exactly is the problem?
I don't fancy the idea of having had to share this place with dinosaurs. The figures you use of a 6 degree increase have already been shelved because the hockey stick needs some sticky tape. Have a look at David Bellamy's article to get a sense of proportion and balance
jim, norwich, uk
When water vapour is taken into account (because it too is a greenhouse gas), the entire human kind contribution of C02 is just 0.03% of the total greenhouse gases.
Which is more likely to cause warming - the thermonuclear reaction in the sky that can burn skin at a distance of millions of miles, or 0.03% of the greenhouse gases.....
W Smith, Oldham,
Global warming hype:
Did the change in species populations cause the climate change (as apparently is happening now) or was caused by - as your article suggests?
Max jalil, Birmingham, UK
I don't get it either !
How is it then that populations on other continents explode, even when hardship prevails, yet here there is IVF . Is our climate to blame for decreased fertility?
Here in our Jurassic landscape , you wonder how the violent earth survived, and newer creatures replaced the the monsters whose fossilised bones are regularily found in our cliffs and quarries. If we become extinct, we will only go the way of the most fearsome predators that lived in that period!!
maggie snook, wool wareham, Dorset UK
while I oppose any global warming taxes, I can't see how can anybody get out and breath that thick smog and still think it has nothing to do with global warming!
Acibeb, London, UK,
Fools...
Global Warming is caused by the Sun. And there's absolutely nothing we can do about it.
The Mayans warned us.
Mick, Liverpool,
You win some and you lose some.
Billy, Belfast,
Dont beat around the bush Kev, tell us what you think..........
AJ, Lincoln,
This is fascinating. I had no idea there were cars, poisoning industrial activity, and belching power stations all those millions of years ago. Perhaps dinosaurs were particularly flatulent.
Or maybe these events were caused by an as-yet-poorly-understood natural cycle of climate change.
Steve, Exeter, Devon
I am sorry but this is utter nonsense. It is scientific illiteracy. There are so many things wrong with this study, but let us just look at an obvious one. These phases of extinction are measured over vast time scales. Certainly several hundred thousand years. The Permian extinction is a perfect example of this. You cannot in all seriousness compare that to the present day when data extends only over several 10's of years, A hundred at most. This is ridiculous. It also takes no notice of volcanic activity, which is known to have a profound effect on extinctions phases (such as that in the Ordovician period). This is nothing more than a crass attempt to link geological catastrophy to modern theories on climate change. This is not science. It is political propaganda
Dr Kevin Law, Dundee, UK