Mark Henderson, Science Editor
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Mars is in danger of being struck by an asteroid at the end of next month, astronomers have calculated.
The newly discovered space rock known as 2007 WD5 has a one in 75 chance of colliding with the planet on January 30. While the probability of an impact is only slim, the odds have been cut from one in 350 when the object was first identified, and they are much shorter than is usual for new asteroids.
If 2007 WD5, which is about 100 metres in diameter, does strike Mars on January 30, it would cause an explosion equivalent to several megatonnes of TNT.
“These odds are extremely unusual,” said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
“We frequently work with really long odds when we track threatening asteroids. We know that it's going to fly by Mars and most likely going to miss, but there's a possibility of an impact.”
If the asteroid does hit, it would give astronomers a rare opportunity to study the effects of such a strike. The object is broadly similar in size to the one that hit Tunguska in Siberia in 1908, which felled an estimated 80 million trees over 810 square miles. Had the Tunguska rock hit a city, it would have wiped it out.
The impact, however, would be tiny in comparison to that of the asteroid that struck Chicxulub in Mexico 65 million years ago, which caused a worldwide cataclysm that is thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs. The new asteroid is 100 times smaller than the 10km diameter rock that caused that event.
The likely impact would be on the threshold of visibility from the largest of Earth's observatories, but its effects would readily be seen by probes orbiting the Red Planet such as the European Space Agency's Mars Express. It will not be visible with domestic telescopes or the naked eye.
The asteroid would probably hit a spot near the Martian equator, close to the point where Nasa's Opportunity rover has been exploring since 2004. Opportunity is safe, however, as it lies outside the projected impact zone.
The chances of an impact being seen with large terrestrial telescopes are greater than usual because Mars is currently very close to Earth. On Tuesday, the planet was just 55 million miles away, the closest it will be until 2016.
Mars is currently the brightest object in the night sky after the Moon.

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The odds are down to 1 in 10,000 now.
Move along folks, nothing to see here.
Steve, Homlfirth, England
The object that caused the explosion in the Tunguska region
was not a rock. Nothing hit the ground. There was no more than a small crater near the epicenter . The explosion that occurred
could be seen 35 kilometers from the area, which would have put the exploding object 300 meters off the ground.
The trees were uprooted by the force of the blast, and those trees closest to the epicenter had all of the water boiled out of one side of their trunks.
Brian, St James, Perth West Australia
Nasa and world science has shown us that collision can happen. However why is there such a problem with computing the trajectory of Asteroids? Trajectory and speed in space should be a standard of measurment. In short they know where and when it is going to hit; they want more money for tracking objects and are using this asteroird to get the $$$$$$.
DOUG, TEXAS, USA
Doug, Sugar Land, Texas / USA
did the asreoid hit mars !!or not....
dave, crestline, ca.
if mars doesnt get hit by the asteroid there is a chance of the asteroid to hit with earth.
nikhil, noida, india,up
Update this article. The chance of a hit has been refined to 1 in 25. The debris is only 150 feet across and stoney, Humans would survive that.
Susan King, Oklahoma City,
to Mike Smith,
The article reads, "Mars is currently the brightest object in the night sky after the Moon". This is true. CURRENTLY, being the key word, Mars appears just below the Moon in the night sky and is the brightest star in the night sky currently.
Virginia, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Trevor - There's nothing nonsensical at all, nor careless in the calculations. The impact zone is an extremely thin ellipsoid 1,000,000 km long by 1,200 km wide. So there is a strip that intersects the planet that delineates the allowable places 2007 WD5 might hit on the surface of Mars, and Opportunity is just outside that band ... but there's only a 1-in-75 chance (given current observed knowledge) that the asteroid will go through that portion of the ellipse.
Timothy R., Boulder, Colorado, USA
@ Gregory Baker,
Uncertainties in the trajectory of 2007 WD5 lead to a probability of 1:75 impacting Mars on Jan 30.
However, the velocities of Mars and 2007 WD5 are known far better. Hence, the -moment- of the 1:75 chance collision can be predicted very accurately. If Opportunity is at the "backside" of Mars then, it is therefore completely safe.
Gert, Utrecht, Netherlands
The Last line in your article concerning the possible asteroid impact on the planet Mars says"Mars is currently the brighterst object in the night sky after the Mooon". I've always thought that the planet Venus aka. "the Morning Star and also the Evening Star "was much brighter than Mars.
Mike Smith, Tunnel Hill ,Georgia, U.S.A.
any chance it will miss, and hit Washington DC instead?
iamhe, San Marcos, CA
Yet again, I thank my lucky stars that I'm not a martian.
Tom, London, England
Well, if there IS life on Mars, it's in trouble now!
Mikey, Bromley, Kent
How can one reconcile the 1 in 75 chance of hitting Mars with the claims that the impact would be probably "close to the point where Nasa's Opportunity rover has been exploring", and that "Opportunity is safe, however, as it lies outside the projected impact zone"?
Does this nonsense reflect the care taken in calculating the probabilty of impact or the care taken in compiling the report, I wonder?
Trevor, Cairo, Egypt
Dinosaurs are alive and well and you can buy cooked portions at any KFC. Just because they aren't as large as they used to be doesn't mean they aren't there.
Kidd Garrett, Bristol, UK
How about we pay a little more money to see that it actually does happen? I'd much rather observe a demonstration of an asteroid collision with Mars as the test subject than have to wait for a real one to happen here on Earth.
Frank Martin, Roseville, Ca
I bet 2007 WD40 simply slides off any planet it hits
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
I just read Les, Ramsgate comment. It amazes me how you could jump from 'cataclysm'... the end of the dinosuars to DNA and its ability to withstand time. DNA can survive given the right conditions (amber for example) but I think you believe that because there is no DNA from fossils(?!) that this somehow give 'credence' to the folk lore that is Christianity. I suggest you compare the 'Book of the Dead' - an Egyptian text found in many places that can be carbon dated - with many of the sections of the Old Testament. You will be amazed how much of this text was used by the monks who scribed the bible - the word of God - fairly succinctly proving that the Bible is nothing more than a hotch potch of age old beliefs regurgitated to take folk like you for their money. Good luck on using your brain - a fairly large undertaking for one whose brow stick so far forward.
Paul Sullivan, Chester,
Let's see - they just discovered this one in November... possible chance to hit Mars. Then there's Apophis (Asteroid 99942 - not the character from Stargate) that's estimated to pass 18,300 miles over the mid-Atlantic on April 13, 2029. Not to mention all the other NEOs and earth crossers that seem to have been found lately, not just cause we're looking. Seems like we're about to travel through a "rough patch of space".
Hope nothin' hits.
Kevin, Annapolis, MD
Excellent news. I'm looking forwards to some decent distant photographs, though I hope the present space missions come out safely.In the event that it misses is there any chance of the trajectory being altered swinging it our way, requiring some close ups being taken instead.
paul, eastbourne,
If it misses Mars were next in line better get some bottled water.
lisa, gibsons BC, canada
I understand George Bush has already determined this asteroid is a weapon of mass destruction and has elevated Asterix to the top of his most wanted list.
Scamp, Aberdeenshire,
"Opportunity is safe, however, as it lies outside the projected impact zone. "
If the odds of impact are only one in 75, then they haven't computed the trajectory well enough to predict an impact zone!
It would be fun to see, though. The last couple of nights I've stood outside, looking at the Moon through it's high winter clouds, and seeing yellow Mars in the sky. As Robert Heinlein noted, "Hit anything hard enough, you get sparks."
Gregory Baker, Odenton, Maryland, USA
"The impact, however, would be tiny in comparison to that of the asteroid that struck Chicxulub in Mexico 65 million years ago, which caused a worldwide cataclysm that is thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs."
Why do folk not report concerning the dinosaur DNA that is being found? It is universally acknowledged that DNA could not survive many thousands of years never mind many millions of years. It is about time that some credence was given to the widespread folk-memories of dragons.
N.B. This is not connected with any pet religion-hate.
PS The name dinosaur was only invented quite recently - it does not have its own built-in antiquity.
Les, Ramsgate, Kent
Sorry. Didn't see "night". Pardon me.
Roberto Veri, Toronto,
No problem we can send Bruce Willis to save Mars
Roberto, Palma de Mallorca, España
How about we all pay more taxes in order for Nu Labour to stop this collision from happening? Bit of a long shot I know but I'm sure some politicians have already thought of this idea.
Cromwell, Leeds , ENGLAND
If this object were to hit Mars i wonder if the impact would be large enough to eject any debris into space? If so, would this debris be something that earth might pass through in the future - giving us a nice meteor show of our own to watch?
Neal, Hollywood, CA
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sai, guntur, india
Curious that those who get so upset about the dangers of global waming do not seem to recognise the real possibility of global catastrophe from asteroid collision with earth.
BrummyDoug, Birmingham, England