Mark Henderson, Science Editor
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It is one of those travel decisions that regularly leaves us stumped. When standing at a bus stop for a short journey, is it better to stick it out and wait or start walking?
The answer, according to mathematicians, will delight couch potatoes everywhere. It almost always pays to wait for the next bus, however enticing the walk might seem.
Only when no bus is due for an hour or more and your destination is less than a kilometre away is it worth walking, the American researchers said. Giving in to your frustration and starting the journey on foot will normally just make you late.
“Many mathematicians probably ponder this on their way to work, but never get round to working it out,” Scott Kominers, of Harvard University, told New Scientist magazine. “It certainly has changed the way I travel.” Dr Kominers joined Justin Chen, of the California Institute of Technology, and Robert Sinnott, also of Harvard, who had considered the issue while working on a problem together.
In their paper, Walk Versus Wait: The Lazy Mathematician Wins, the researchers wrote: “Recently, the first author [Justin] had to walk to the second author’s [Scott’s] house to work on a problemset.
“There is a bus route which covers the distance directly, but the bus arrives sporadically. So, he faced a conundrum: walk the distance or wait for the bus? Being lazy, he would always rather ride the bus, if possible.
Being punctual, however, he will always choose the option which gets him to his destination as quickly as possible.”
The mathematicians then worked out the variables for the journey and turned them into a formula. It takes into account d, the distance in miles Dr Chen has to travel; n, the number of bus stops; vw, Dr Chen’s walking speed; and vb, the bus’s speed. The time when the journey starts – t – equals 0, and time spent waiting is tw.
The formula shows that it is never worth him starting to walk and then boarding the bus at the next stop if it happens to be passing: all he does is waste energy or see a bus speeding past him between stops.
The time spent waiting added to the time the bus would take is almost always lower than the time it would take him to walk. “‘Eureka!’, Justin shouted upon realising that the laziest possible waiting strategy would prevail,” the paper concludes. “He promptly sat down to wait for the bus.”
There are circumstances, however, in which the formula does not quite work. “Being a mathematician, Justin had, of course, chosen to ponder the problem, entirely forgetting the planned meeting,” the researchers wrote. “In the meantime, Scott had grown tired of waiting and had walked to Justin’s house. When he arrived, he pointed out that it was a holiday, hence no buses were running.”
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Fascinating excercise, but would invite Mr Chen to enjoy one of our exciting morning traffic jams. My advice is forget the bus and teh walk - go for a quick and healthy bike ride!
A Kline, Brussels, Belgium
What a surprisingly interesting topic! I teach travel skills by way or Orientation and Mobility training to blind and partially sighted students. When learning a new walking route that is also covered by the bus, to the nearby market, we've often had the delima of "walk vs. wait". Most often if we've decided to walk the mile route (up a big hill), the bus passes us 3/4 of the way to our destination ... funny how that happens 90% of the time!
Judy, Vancouver USA
Judy Koch Smith, Vancouver, WA, USA
I don't know how on earth he came to this conclusion. From experience, I have walked to the next stop many times when I've just missed a bus and only very rarely missed the next bus as a result. Also, standing in one spot for 20mins/half an hour is very boring!
Marvin, Fleetwood, Lancashire, UK
If your travelling distance is a kilometre, or even a mile, it isn't raining, and you are able bodied, what are you doing taking a bus? See the levels of obesity in the country and think about it.
The exercise could be part of your exercise regime that will help you live longer and have a better quality of life during that time, just for the inconvenience of needing to buy replacement shoes more often! White collar workers can wear trainers and carry good shoes in a bag with their healthy packed lunch that negates the need to buy cholesterol killers from the sandwich sellers too.
MrD, York, England
This is fairly elementary and somewhat beside the more usual point. The problem, which isn t easily solved mathematically, is when the bus can frequently arrive at an interval of twice or more that stated as the norm. If this happens often enough you are constantly faced with deciding whether you would rather walk or wait the extended time, especially when you have a time constraint.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Twenty minutes to walk one kilometre? At a reasonable pace it should take just over ten.
Bill Q, Derby,
I have a bus every 20 minutes for a journey of 10 minutes on the bus or 30 minutes on foot. If I just miss a bus and set off I generally arrive at the destination bus stop at the same time as the next bus. This is probably the cut off case. The distance is actually 4.5 km but I do walk quickly.
Al, Geneva, Switzerland
The problem is if you wait, which one of the three to get on
Terry Hawker, L'Absie, France
"Only when no bus is due for an hour or more and your destination is less than a kilometre away is it worth walking".
Surely not? If it takes about twenty minutes to walk that distance at a comfortable pace, then a bus need only be due in twenty minutes time for it to be quicker walking. Maybe the formula works better at slightly longer distances and more frequent buses than hourly...
James, London, UK