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LABOUR'S Scottish heartlands are the most vulnerable areas in the UK to a housing crash, according to new figures which show thousands of homeowners face having mortgages bigger than the value of their properties.
Neighbourhoods in Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Falkirk and Fife have the most overextended debtors in the country, who would fall into negative equity with a modest fall in the value of their homes.
According to figures compiled by Experian, the credit reference agency, the most overexposed constituency in the UK is Glasgow Central, represented by Mohammad Sarwar.
Sighthill, in the east end of the city, is the neighbourhood most vulnerable to property fluctuations — 4,000 homeowners would fall into negative equity with a 5% drop in average property prices.
The Oatlands area of the city has the second highest level of indebtedness. There the average mortgage is £76,000, compared with an average house price of £83,000, meaning an 8% drop in prices would send more than 3,700 homeowners into negative equity.
Glasgow Central is the most vulnerable of Britain's 646 parliamentary constituencies, with mortgages averaging £95,000 and average prices running at £127,000.
Motherwell and Wishaw, represented at Holyrood by Jack McConnell, the former first minister, is Britain's second most vulnerable constituency, with average loans of £60,000 compared with average values of £80,000.
Four other Scottish seats appear in the top 20 most vulnerable — Glasgow North East, which has the eighth highest level of mortgages as a percentage of house values (68%), Airdrie and Shotts (ninth on 67%), Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (11th on 66%) and Falkirk (16th on 62%). Salford is the worst-rated English constituency, and the third worst in Britain, followed by Swansea West.
In hundreds of cases Scots already have mortgages of more than 120% of the value of their homes. If house prices fall by between 25% and 50% as ABN AMRO, the global banking group, has warned, it could damage Labour's re-election hopes, with Scottish constituencies among the biggest losers.
While Scottish house prices rose over the past year by 14%, the latest data found that they fell over the last quarter by 1.6% to £163,211. Andrew Burrell, chief UK economist at Experian which obtained its data from lenders, said the findings could spell misery for many Scottish families. “There are pockets of real problems in Scotland where households are vulnerable,” he said.
Paul Martin, the Glasgow MSP whose constituency includes Sighthill, said banks had acted recklessly in offering so many customers high percentage mortgages. He warned that if banks refused to extend 95% loans beyond fixed-rate terms it could plunge Scots into deeper debt as they are forced to settle for less preferential rates from other lenders, including loan sharks.
Martin also called on the Scottish government to make funds available to help homeowners with debt advice.
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But this is Scotland?
They are independent and like London have an independent economy that can raise revenue off Scottish taxpayers (as they will be London taxpayers in the coming crash) to deal with the problem...
I am rather please that Scotland and London have been so singularly successful on their own...
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK