Ministers appealed for calm yesterday as the prospect of a 48-hour strike at a massive oil refinery threatened to trigger panic-buying at petrol stations in Scotland and northern England.

Britain’s third-largest refinery, at Grangemouth, near Edinburgh, will shut down completely tomorrow and it is likely to be up to three weeks before it returns to full capacity, at a loss to production of millions of barrels of oil.

With the possibility of up to 50 North Sea oilfields also having to cease production should the main Forties Pipeline System be forced to close, ministers both north and south of the Border were facing the prospect last night of economic fallout as well as disruption to fuel supplies.

Up to £50 million a day – including £25 million to Treasury coffers – is likely to be lost if the Forties Pipeline System is forced to shut down. The move would bring a halt to a flow of 700,000 barrels of oil a day, equivalent to 20 per cent of total North Sea production.

Amid mounting concerns about panic-buying by motorists and profit-eering by petrol stations, the Scottish Executive announced last night that it would coordinate events from its “emergency room” in Edinburgh, while John Hutton, the UK Business and Enterprise Secretary, told the Commons that the situation in Scotland would be closely monitored.

Mr Hutton said: “It is the UK Government’s absolute and firm responsibility to make sure that there is continuity of supply, that emergency services are protected first and foremost and that we do everything in our power to make sure we minimise the wider impact on the community.”

Although he disclosed that oil companies had reported “significant” increases in fuel take-up by motorists, he emphasised that there was no imminent danger of stocks running out.

“Over the last few days significant additional supplies of imported fuel have been made available in Scotland,” he said. “I have been advised by the industry that there is sufficient fuel to resupply forecourts and other users. Industry has also advised us that, at present, fuel stocks at Grangemouth, together with planned imports of finished product through Grangemouth, should be sufficient to maintain supplies through the period of the industrial action and the consequent restarting of the plant.”

The refinery at Grangemouth, which is one of nine across Britain and the only one in Scotland, processes 210,000 barrels of crude oil a day or ten million tonnes a year. As well as Scotland, it supplies parts of northern England, including areas of Northum-berland and Cumbria.

Some 1,200 workers have vowed to walk out on Sunday in a dispute over changes to their pension schemes, and in anticipation of the two-day strike the Grangemouth site has been steadily phased down since last Friday.

Ineos, the private company that owns the site, estimates that it will take several weeks before it is up and running again at full capacity.

Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, said that there were sufficient stocks of all types of fuel in Scotland to last into May. While it is believed that some “finished product” fuel is stored at Grangemouth, it is understood that further stocks are held in Inverness and at a depot on the west coast. Across the UK, it is believed that there are enough fuel stocks to last for around 70 days.

Mr Salmond yesterday urged motorists not to panic, adding that Scotland “can cope with this difficulty”. He called for people to behave sensibly and responsibly" by cutting out nonessential trips and using public transport where possible.

In an emergency statement at Holyrood, John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Secretary, said that emergency services across Scotland were considering the possible impact of the fuel shortages.

He said: “The strike has the potential to affect all sectors of Scottish society and economy. We are therefore taking this issue extremely seriously indeed. It would clearly be unacceptable if any retailer were to take advantage of the localised fuel shortages and increase prices. I would call on all retailers to ensure that increased prices are avoided at all costs.”

Steam and electricity from the Grangemouth refinery are essential to operations at the nearby Kinneil processing plant, where crude oil from the Forties pipeline is stabilised by removing sulphur and extracting gas.

Unless Ineos is able to give assurances that it will supply basic utilities to Kinneil to keep it running, oil and gas production from the Forties sector of the North Sea is likely to halt within the next 24 hours. Amid growing signs of frustration among the companies affected by the strike, operators from across the industry urged both sides in the dispute to heed the Government’s appeal for a swift resolution. A spokesman for BP, which owns the Forties Pipeline System, said it was seeking urgent clarification from Ineos: “Without essential services we would be unable to continue operations. All we can do is make the preparations for a possible shutdown and keep pressing them for information.”

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