IN HIS book on the English, Jeremy Paxman tells how his countrymen like to think of themselves as a patient, self-denying race who would rather tend their gardens than contemplate unpleasantness.

The BBC broadcaster’s recent claim that England was under “a Scottish Raj”, with Scots dominating the Westminster cabinet, gave voice to another sentiment, however. Our opinion poll today suggests that the sentiment is on the rise.

The Sunday Times/YouGov poll found that a clear majority of English people believe Scottish MPs should be banned from cabinet jobs dealing with English-only affairs which in Scotland are devolved to the Holyrood parliament in Edinburgh.

It suggests an immediate danger for Tony Blair if he chooses to keep John Reid and Alistair Darling in charge of English departments or to promote others like Douglas Alexander, his ambitious junior foreign office minister.

A majority of voters also believe Scottish MPs should not be allowed to vote on English matters in the House of Commons and, most startlingly of all, almost eight out of 10 say too much public money is being spent on Scotland at the expense of the rest of Britain.

So were the soothsayers right to warn that the biggest constitutional reforms in 300 years under new Labour, with the advent of devolution in Scotland and Wales, would stoke the flames of English nationalism? Are we finally witnessing the break up of Britain that Tam Dalyell described as an inevitable consequence? Some believe Tony Blair — or Gordon Brown — must confront the English question soon or risk a backlash from voters south of the border that could leave Labour’s electoral prospects, if not the union, in serious doubt.

Darren Foster, of the Campaign for an English Parliament, who believes the opinion poll accurately reflects a hardening of attitudes, says the English are becoming fed up with being treated as “second-class citizens”.

Ironically, he uses terms applied by Scottish home rule campaigners in the 1990s to describe the problem of being governed by people they didn’t vote for. Foster talks about devolution as having created a “democratic deficit”, with controversial English policies imposed by Scots MPs only accountable to voters north of the border where such policies do not apply because they are devolved to Edinburgh.

“We believe the dominant presence of Scottish MPs at Westminster in Tony Blair’s government has contributed to the huge constitutional disparity between England and the other countries of the UK. It is a gross abuse to democratic accountability that the secretaries of state for health (Reid) and for transport (Darling) are held by MPs who do not represent a constituency in the same country where their policies are delivered.”

Over the course of the last year opposition to Scots MPs being in charge of English ministerial portfolios has risen by 14 points to 60% and opposition to Scottish members voting on English-only policies has risen by three points to 70%.

Peter Kellner, the chairman of YouGov, believes a series of close votes in the Commons and Paxman’s comments has focused minds. “I don’t think the English go around in their conversations in pubs saying: ‘Isn’t it scandalous how many Scots there are in the cabinet,’ but when it is drawn to their attention they get hacked off. If the Tories made a real play of how much money the Scots get they would be on to something. But they would have to give up on Scotland,” he said.

William Hague flirted with the idea while Tory leader but the message from Michael Howard is loud and clear: there will be no changes to the spending formula. He will come under pressure to abandon that position after the election, however.

Andrew Rosindell, the Conservative party’s vice chairman, is one of many senior Tory figures who believe England is not getting a fair deal.

Thus far Howard has been prepared only to sign up to a ban on Scots MPs from voting on English matters. The Campaign for an English parliament believes matters could come to a head if, as expected, Gordon Brown succeeds Tony Blair as prime minister after the election.

Kellner disagrees, arguing that Brown would enjoy a honeymoon because, regardless of his nationality, British voters rate him as a stronger, more principled figure than Blair.

Gerry Hassan, a social and political commentator, believes the key factor will be the size of Labour’s majority. “If there is a Labour majority of 50 or under after the general election we get back into that murky, deep, dark water of having a Labour government relying on the votes of Scottish and Welsh MPs.

“In those circumstances the Tories could have a majority in England. That is going to bring all these questions to the surface and the Labour party is not well-prepared for the consequences. Scotland has slipped off the agenda down south but after May 5 it is going to come back and constitutional politics will be centre stage.”

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