Angus Macleod, Scottish Political Editor
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Support among Scots for independence has reached its lowest-ever point, even though they also believe that Alex Salmond is doing a good job as First Minister as he approaches the first anniversary of the SNP's election victory last May, a poll has found.
The YouGov poll found that only 19 per cent of Scots backed a separate Scotland as their favoured option over either the status quo or giving the devolved Scottish Parliament at Holyrood more powers.
Even when offered a straight choice between independence within the EU and the status quo, support for separation rises to only 25 per cent, against 59 per cent for the Union. The finding runs completely counter to recent polls which suggested that independence was either running close behind support for the Union or had overtaken it.
The answer to the apparent contradiction appears to lie in the nature of the question asked. A recent TNS poll for a Scottish Sunday newspaper found that 41 per cent of those questioned said that they favoured an independent Scotland, against 40 per cent who backed the status quo.
However, the question they were asked was the SNP government's favoured referendum question, on whether they supported Mr Salmond's administration negotiating with the UK government so that Scotland becomes an independent state.
YouGov, for The Daily Telegraph, however, asked whether those questioned would favour keeping devolution or establishing Scotland as a completely separate state. It seems that when Scots are reminded what independence would actually involve, support for the idea falls dramatically. When the choice was extended to include the status quo, keeping the present Scottish Parliament but giving it more powers or complete independence, support for independence fell to 19 per cent, while 34 per cent favoured the status quo and 38 per cent wanted more powers for the Scottish Parliament.
The 19 per cent rating for independence is even lower than the 23 per cent rating recorded by the Scottish Centre for Social Research last autumn.
However, 53 per cent of those asked said they were satisfied with Mr Salmond's performance. In contrast, only 26 per cent of Scots said they were satisfied with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister. The poll also revealed increasing support for the SNP in terms of voting intentions for both Westminster and Holyrood elections. The percentage of those who intend voting SNP at the next general election has gone up by 12 points since 2005 to 30 per cent, 4 per cent behind Labour.
The poll also contained grim news for Scottish Labour, with only 21 per cent saying they believed that Wendy Alexander was proving a good leader, against 60 per cent who believed she was doing a bad job, the worst ratings of any of the Scottish party leaders.
The Nationalists were dismissive of the poll's main finding. Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, said that the most recent poll to ask the question as it would be put in a referendum showed support for independence up by 16 points since last summer.
Murdo Fraser, the deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said he was not surprised to see independence so unpopular: “Scots know that we are stronger within the United Kingdom. This is clearly bad news for Alex Salmond and the Nationalist team.”
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