Suppose the SNP win Glasgow East, as Alex Salmond forecasts, an interesting question arises: would it be a vote against the government (UK) or for the government (Scotland)? A condemnation of Gordon Brown or an expression of confidence in Alex Salmond? These questions alone are enough to make this an unusual by-election.

In normal times Glasgow East would be a safe Labour seat. But just as Brown’s government seems to be tottering towards the verge of the abyss, so the Labour party in Scotland is apparently in almost complete disarray. It has no leader and no sense of direction. It made a mess of of selecting a candidate for the election, and (as reported in our Ecosse section) its campaign seems to be floundering. That’s putting it politely.

As for the SNP, they would seem to be in a “heads we win, tails you lose” situation. If they take the seat from Labour, that would be a significant victory. It might even suggest that, come the general election next year or in spring 2010, there would be no such thing as a safe Labour seat in Scotland. That would be an exaggeration, if only because people do vote differently in by-elections when they feel free to express discontent. Nevertheless, the loss of Glasgow East would deliver a sickening blow to Labour morale.

On the other hand, if Labour cling on to Glasgow East, but with a sharply reduced majority — not even the most optimistic Labour member predicts anything better — this too could constitute a victory, if only a moral one, for the SNP. It would suggest they were riding as high as Labour is sinking low.

There’s only one catch. Alex Salmond has been asserting that the SNP will win the election. So, if they don’t, a little bit of gloss may come off the first minister, whose native cockiness is starting to look like arrogance. When generals were granted a triumph in ancient Rome, a slave would stand behind them in the chariot, instructed to murmur in the general’s ear a reminder of his mortality. Maybe the first minister needs someone to give him a similar message. He seems so confident of victory that he posed with a boxer holding his gloved fist against the first ministerial chins. Tempting fate?

He has also declared that an SNP win will be a victory for Scotland, a claim that many will find offensive. It’s a throwback to the old nationalist assertion, or at least assumption, that if you don’t vote SNP you can’t be a true Scot, but must indeed be anti-Scottish. I had thought Salmond had put this childish nonsense behind him — seemingly not.

Nevertheless this by-election is about Labour, not the SNP. A huge swing to the nationalists will demonstrate a revulsion with Labour rather than enthusiasm for the SNP. That revulsion, one may recall, resulted in the formerly safe Westminster seat of Dunfermline falling to the Liberal Democrats, simply because they looked the party most likely to beat Labour — exactly the position of the SNP in Glasgow East.

There seems little reason for the voters of Glasgow East to remain loyal to Labour. Everyone has now read the statistics which demonstrate that it is one of the poorest constituencies in Britain, with a miserable record of ill-health and unemployment. Few can think its loyalty has been well-rewarded. Yet there are many who will stick to Labour, because they’ve “aye been Labour”, perhaps also on the grounds that it makes sense “to keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse”. In any case all those voters who depend on benefits look to Westminster rather than Holyrood. The Welfare State is British rather than Scottish and they are its beneficiaries — despite the view that being trapped in the dependency culture is of no real benefit to anyone.

The claim that the decision to postpone the 2p rise in fuel duty that was due in October is an election bribe may be dismissed. Given the constituency’s low level of car-ownership, this promise will appeal to comparatively few voters. If you wanted to bribe voters in Glasgow East, you would announce a hike in pensions and benefits.

For many outsiders, the election isn’t about the candidates. It’s not even about Salmond and the SNP. It’s all about Brown. Could he survive the loss of such a previously safe Labour seat? Could he even survive a huge swing against Labour and victory by a very small minority? There are plenty of Labour MPs who would then be even more afraid about their own prospects than they are already and who may favour the idea that a delegation of senior ministers should approach Brown and order him to fall on his sword for the good of the party.

On the other hand, the timing of this by-election gives the prime minister some leeway. Parliament will be in recess, ministers and backbenchers on holiday. There will be time enough, in our world of 24-hour news, for the shock to be absorbed and for the memory of Glasgow East to slip away. Besides, who knows what will happen in August, a month when storms sometimes blow up? Events may come to Brown’s rescue. He may be given, by some disaster, the opportunity to display leadership.

Last summer was a good one for him until he blew his credit with the election that never was. Events enabled him to present himself as an assured, calm and strong leader. They may do so again. There’s also the question of whether Labour really wants to engage in the distraction of a leadership election that might turn nasty. But that’s what they would have to do if Brown went. It’s inconceivable that they could present us with another leader by acclamation, another uncontested coronation. So it seems likely that no matter how bad the result in Glasgow East is, Brown will cling on. Forecasts have been so bleak that if the seat is held, no matter how small the majority, many Labour people will hail it as a turning point, the beginning of a fight back.

Of course things might turn out differently if the seat is lost. The delegation might approach the prime minister and say: “In the name of the party, and for its sake, your time’s up, Gordon.” This prospect has had some wondering if the SNP really wants to win. Brown, they say, is damaged goods, therefore a liability for Labour, an asset for us. Do we really want him out of office?

There are other parties in this poll, even if no one thinks them of much relevance. Still there is one point of interest. Can the Tories, whose candidate has been quite impressive, squeeze into a respectable third place? And if they did, would that suggest that their long Scottish winter is nearly over?

Jenny Hjul is away

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