Hopes of a higher-than-expected turnout in Glasgow East on Thursday have risen after it emerged that 70 per cent of postal votes have already been returned.

The rate of return of postal ballots in the constituency has already reached what it was in the 2005 general election, with two days still to go.

In all, there were almost 4,000 postal vote applications from voters who will not be in the constituency when polling stations open tomorrow morning. That compares with 2,000 in 2005, although the upsurge can at least be partly explained by the timing of the by-election in the first week of the Glasgow Fair holiday fortnight.

A spokesman for Glasgow City Council said: “We have received back 2,690 of the 3,913 we sent out. At around 69 per cent turnout we've reached the level we would expect to be at when the polls close on Thursday night. Obviously there is a great degree of interest in this by-election.”

Experts believe that the postal vote figures may be an indication of a turnout even higher than the bookmakers have expected. Ladbroke's were yesterday offering 5-2 on a turnout of between 35 and 39.9 per cent; 7-2 on a turnout of 30-34.9 per cent and 7-1 on a 25-29.9 per cent turnout.

John Curtice, the Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and an authority on elections, said that while those applying for postal votes were usually more interested in politics, the Glasgow East figures showed a fairly high rate of return. “One of the things that affects people taking up postal votes and using them is whether a close result is expected. If around 4,000 postal votes have been applied for, this is double the very low number in 2005,” he said.

“In 2005, 74 per cent of those who in Glasgow East applied for a postal vote returned their ballot. So if 70 per cent or so are in now, that perhaps points to a similar overall turnout as in 2005, when it was 48 per cent, which would be unexpectedly high.”

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