SCOTS could be confined to their communities for more than six months and banned from attending public gatherings under an emergency plan to contain an expected flu pandemic.

A government report, obtained by The Sunday Times, reveals that public health officials believe as many as 64,000 could be killed by a virulent strain of influenza, which could strike Scotland “at any time”.

The death toll — 15,000 higher than the previous estimate — has been revised amid fears that the as many as 1.25m Scots would be infected by the disease.

In the 138-page document, experts warn that it would take more than six months to develop a vaccine for the pathogen, either a mutation of the avian flu virus — which has already claimed dozens of victims across Asia — or some other deadly strain.

During that time home curfews would be imposed on anyone infected with the virus and people would be prevented from leaving communities ravaged by the pathogen.

Public gatherings such as football matches, pop concerts and church services could be cancelled and schools and nurseries closed. Meanwhile, everyone in Scotland could be required to wear protective face masks and screening would be introduced at all UK ports and airports. Anyone infected would be quarantined.

International health officials have been warning for several months that the avian flu virus circulating in Asia could cause a pandemic. Even if a global outbreak of bird flu is avoided, experts believe it is only a matter of time before another strain causes huge loss of life.

Even when a vaccine is produced supplies could be very limited and there is no guarantee it will be effective, the government report warns.

Under what ministers regard as the most likely scenario, 14.5m people in Britain would fall ill, causing widespread loss of life and massive disruption to society. Such an outbreak is likely to kill at least 4,500 people in Scotland, but under officials’ worst case scenario 709,000 Britons, including about 64,000 Scots, would die.

Officials say Britain could be hit by a national fuel shortage and businesses would be devastated by absenteeism, with as many as a quarter of the workforce too sick to work. “The prime objectives are to save lives, reduce the health impact of a pandemic and minimise disruption to essential services while maintaining business continuity and reducing the general societal disruption that is likely to ensue,” the report states.

“There is some evidence that big gatherings of people encourage spread, and measures to flatten the epidemic curve can be helpful in easing the most intense pressure on health services.”

However, Professor Hugh Pennington, one of Britain’s leading microbiologists, said there was no evidence to suggest that the restrictions would limit the spread of the disease.

“Restrictions like this do not seem to be a vital precautionary measure,” he said.

He added the government should instead be spending more money on anti-viral drugs and on developing a vaccine that might prevent the disease.

Britain has stockpiled more than 14m courses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu but this is only enough to help one quarter of the population expected to fall ill.

The Asian outbreak has killed 34 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and one Cambodian since 2003 and recurred several times despite the slaughter of millions of birds.

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