The mainstream political parties are increasingly worried that British National Party could achieve a political breakthrough in Scotland in next week’s byelection.

Some privately believe that the BNP stands a chance of winning third place in Glasgow North East, ahead of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, or, at best, save its deposit — something the party has never achieved in an election in Scotland.

In the European elections in June the BNP won 545 votes in Glasgow North East — 4.4 per cent of the overall vote on a 21.5 per cent turn out. To save its deposit on Thursday, the BNP needs to achieve 5 per cent. If the turn-out in Glasgow North East is around the predicted 40 per cent, the BNP would require only 1,200 votes to reach that target.

The main parties believe that the BNP’s campaign was boosted by the appearance of Nick Griffin, the BNP’s leader, on Question Time last month. They also say that the BNP is feeding off voter antipathy created by the MPs expenses scandal

Allied to that, Glasgow North East is the only Scottish constituency with a relatively high number of asylum seekers. Ten years ago the city decided to take part in the Home Office’s asylum seeker dispersal programme and many of the several thousand asylum seekers who were sent to Glasgow ended up in the constituency’s notorious Red Road towers.

Asylum seekers say they regularly face accusations that they are given preferential treatment over local families when it comes to housing allocations.

Labour MPs out canvassing in the constituency say that they have come across growing support for the BNP among voters.

“It’s not just in these places where you would expect it but among some of the better-off people as well. I’m worried that the BNP could cause a real shock here,” said one.

Another was concerned that the BNP could achieve 10 per cent of the vote, although his colleagues disputed that support was as high as that.

Professor John Curtice, Britain’s most respected polling analyst, said: “You would have to say that this is potentially the best place in Scotland for the BNP.

“The social profile in Glasgow North East means it is the kind of area where the BNP tend to do well throughout the UK. But you do not expect them to do as well in Scotland as they would do in the same social situation down south.”

He said that the chances of the BNP coming third were slim. For it to do so would mean that support for parties other than Labour and the SNP had totally collapsed.

The BNP candidate in the byelection is Charlie Baillie, a long-time member of the party. “The message is that the BNP is opposed to the dispersal policy enacted by the city council. We are opposed to mass immigration and we seek an immediate return for bogus asylum seekers,” he said.

With the byelection campaign now in its final lap, the Labour candidate, Willie Bain, appears increasingly confident of holding off a strong challenge from the SNP and avoiding a repeat of Glasgow East byelection last year, when the SNP overcame a 13,000 Labour majority.

Political observers say that the SNP campaign has failed to develop any real momentum.

Labour has made great play of the SNP government’s recent decision to cancel a rail link project from Glasgow to the city’s airport. The SNP has tried to hit back by reminding voters that they have been electing Labour representatives at all levels of government for the past 74 years but that the constituency still remains one of the poorest in the UK.

The byelection was triggered by the decision of the former Commons speaker, Michael Martin, now Lord Martin of Springburn, to stand down in June as the MP for Glasgow North East in the wake of the expenses scandal.

Both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, which will also be fighting to save their deposits, did not contest the seat at the General Election in 2005, observing the Westminster tradition that the Speaker is not opposed.

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