LABOUR is haemorrhaging support and faces being voted out of the Scottish executive for the first time since devolution, according to private polling conducted for the party.

Research shows that just 30% of voters intend to back Labour in the constituency vote at next year’s Scottish election, down 5% on 2003. On the second vote support is 27%, down 2% since the last election.

The poll confirms Labour’s worst fears — that the Liberal Democrats and a resurgent Scottish National party would have enough seats to form a coalition and oust Jack McConnell from office.

The findings were presented to a meeting of Labour MSPs earlier this month. While many backbenchers blame McConnell’s lacklustre performance for the party’s troubles, the first minister was absent from the meeting, attending a £500-a-head private dinner addressed by Bill Clinton.

Many had expected some loss of support because of Tony Blair’s unpopularity, but there were indications from the poll that McConnell is as much, if not more, of a liability.

Party strategists have warned the first minister, who was roundly booed by fans while presenting the Scottish Cup at Hampden Park last week, that the figures represent a “wake-up call” and that there is an urgent need for him to “raise his game”.

“Jack’s approach has been steady as she goes when what we need is to excite people with much more radical ideas if we’re to stay in power,” said one Labour MSP.

The poll, conducted last month, showed Labour neck-and-neck with the SNP which is on 29% on the constituency vote and 26% on the second vote — in both cases up 5% since 2003.

It showed the Liberal Democrats with 17% on the constituency vote (+2%), and on 21% on the second vote (+ 9%) with the Scottish Conservatives on 15% (-1.5%) and 14% (- 1.5%).

When translated into seats, it would give Labour 43, seven fewer than at present and 13 less than it took in 1999 under Donald Dewar.

The SNP would emerge with 37 seats, up 10 from the last election while the Lib Dems’ total would rise from 17 to 28. The Tories would emerge with 15 seats, three less than in 2003 while the smaller parties, including the Greens and Scottish Socialists, would lose 11 seats.

It would signal the Nationalists’ long-awaited breakthrough in the central belt, seizing Glasgow Govan and constituencies in Paisley, Kilmarnock, Cumbernauld and Linlithgow.

Nine Labour MSPs, including Hugh Henry, the deputy justice minister, and Lewis Macdonald, the deputy health minister, would lose their seats. The party would pick up two seats on the second vote.

The poll found 8% more people saying they would vote Labour in a UK election than for the Scottish parliament and even Labour councillors were more popular. Among Labour voters only half thought Holyrood was doing a good job, compared with eight out of 10 at Westminster.

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, said the figures showed there was “all to play for”, adding: “The election campaign is wide open. The underlying problem for Labour is that north and south of the border people have had enough of them. They’ve been in power for too long and people want a change.”

A source close to Nicol Stephen, the Lib Dem leader, confirmed that a coalition with the SNP, was now a distinct possibility. “Labour are right to worry that we’ll do that. There’s no law that says Labour must always be in power or that we can’t work with the SNP,” he said.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said McConnell must be seen to be better at standing up for Scots and distance himself from the UK government if he is to avoid a humiliating defeat.

“He has to separate himself from Westminster and wrap himself in tartan. If I was being Machiavellian and I was Jack I would be telling Tony Blair no to new nuclear power stations, that I intended to defend my country from being contaminated,” he said.

Last night Labour refused to comment. “We do not confirm or discuss any private polling which we may undertake.”

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