Mark Henderson, Science Editor
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Global warming is generating heavier rainfall over Britain of the sort that has triggered this week’s floods, scientists have confirmed for the first time.
While it has long been suspected that climate change is contributing to increased precipitation over midlatitude countries such as Britain, research has now conclusively linked greenhouse gases to heavier downpours.
The findings, from an international team including several British scientists, do not prove that this week’s flooding is the direct result of global warming: it is linked to weather patterns that have been known before.
It is consistent, however, with a much broader trend towards more rainfall, on which researchers have now found an unambiguously human fingerprint.
“The paper is saying there is a significant human influence on global rainfall patterns and this includes an increase of precipitation north of 50 degrees northern latitude, an area that includes the UK,” said Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the University of Reading who took part in the study.
In the study, which is to be published in the journal Nature, the scientists compared recorded changes in rain and snowfall over land with changes that are predicted by climate models that account for global warming caused by greenhouse gases.
The actual pattern of changes, with increased precipitation in latitudes north of 50 degrees, corresponds remarkably closely with the patterns that emerged from 14 different models. This suggests strongly that human-induced climate change has been responsible.
For the European region that includes Britain, the research team estimates that human activity has accounted for about two thirds of the observed trend. Other natural factors, such as volcanic activity, have also had an influence, but this is much smaller than that from people.
Dr Stott said that the study did not examine seasonal trends, but that other predictions suggest Britain will in general suffer wetter winters and drier summers, rather than multiple repeats of this year’s summer downpours, though significant uncertainties remain.
It is currently impossible to say whether the current bad weather is a result of global warming, and more research is needed into the origins of such extreme events.
“We looked at annual rainfall trends rather than any particular season,” Dr Stott said. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”

— There is no easy way to say this — summer is shaping up to be one of the most depressing in memory (Paul Simons writes). The weather forecast models for the next seven days look truly horrible, with more showers midweek and even more misery next weekend, with only brief respites. One ray of hope is a hint of some fine weather in early to mid-August, but even this may prove to be a false hope.
Britain is caught in something of a meteorological sandwich, stuck between high pressure systems to the north in Iceland and to the south in the Azores. Storm clouds are squeezing through a gap in between these two huge anticyclones, riding underneath the high altitude jet stream wind. The weather pattern is stuck in a rut and refuses to budge.
It is tempting to blame the appalling weather on climate change, which is believed to increase the chances of extreme rainfall events. But one wet summer on its own proves very little. In fact, the top ten wettest Julys all happened two or three centuries ago.
No, if there is a sign of climate change at work in all this misery it shows up in the truly remarkable temperatures this month. Despite all the rain, temperatures have averaged 15.5C (59.9F) for Central England up to July 22, only 0.5C below normal for the month. There is a good chance that without global warming we might be suffering an even worse summer.
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The weather system has too many parameters to give predictions further than a few weeks (and these aren't always accurate) so how can these models predict how man's pollution will affect it in the coming years? These weather conditions may or may not be related to carbon emissions but it is plainly obvious that something has to change. Populations are growing, we are consuming more and more energy and wasting more and more resources. One of the most worrying things I've read recently is the growing dead zone in the gulf.
Dan, London,
Was the flooding in 1947 caused by man made global warming?
Russ, Reading, UK
Certainly explains how we have had almost no rain in the last 2 weeks - and we are 55 North !!. So much for "selective" science.
Freddie, Largs, Scotland
I thought global warming was going to bring us searing temperatures and extended droughts? That's what they told uswhen it was warm last year...
Nick, London,
And the deluge of 1912.....who was responsible for that?
Mind you - daft to build all these houses - nowhere for the rain to soak....we're just too crowded. Time to start seriously looking at reducing our population long term but as a start, we should put a "Full" sign up at our ports so that no one gets in - no matter where they come from.......and start deporting a few!
Phil, Preston,
My concern is that the collusion between media and some factions of science to find a man made cause for anything will cause people to disbelieve all of everything that is presented as science everywhere. When that happens the world will have to operate solely on superstition. Again.
In the last few days I have finally come to despair at the ineptitude (or dishonesty - take your pick) of news reporting. Here we have a story that starts out saying that the reason that Gloucester is flooded is because its inhabitants drive Land Rovers and only in its second to last paragraph actually gives any real persepctive to the prior exaggerated claims. This on top of news reports which tell me that this "unprecedented" flooding is the worst for 60 years. Make up your damn mind. Either it has no precedent or the last precedent was 60 years ago. If the media is intent on misleading the sheep it should at least do so with a reasonable grasp of English.
Ian , Woking, UK
So we've been a little bit wetter this year, and London may end up under water.. boo-hoo...maybe this country can move forward then instead of being so centered on an over populated, over priced, over hyped city and you'll all discover what lies North of the M25. Don't remember so much panic after the floods up North...we just get on with things... it's not the end of the world, or drastic changes, just a bit of water - deal with it. Oh, and it you thought you'd save money and have sky etc instead of insurance - tough - don't see why the government should help you out.
Dave Davis, Sheffield, UK
When scientists started to point out the dangers of smoking, huge numbers of people simply refused to accept the evidence, citing all sorts of 'common sense' arguments (relatives who smoked and lived to an advanced age, non-smokers who had died from lung cancer...). And what about the potential damage to the tobacco industry? And wasn't it all a conspiracy by the government to get its greedy fingers on our money by upping tax on cigarettes?
With generous funding from the tobacco industry, a small number of maverick (or mercenary) scientists produced research purporting to cast doubt on the link between smoking and cancer. This was eagerly seized on by people seeking to reassure themselves that their familiar, everyday habit couldn't possibly be putting them in danger of deadly disease.
Sounds familiar? It should do. People need to ask themselves whether common sense might in fact turn out to be common stupidity. It certainly looks very much like it in many of these posts.
Tom Scott, Falmouth, UK
I've watched 'Walking with Dinosaurs' these too are computer models I don't believe dinosaurs are roaming the planet any more than I believe computer models show man is responsible for GW. In fact I know computer models can do whatever the author or programmer wants them to do even make 4 + 4 = 5 if they want to certainly as is the case with these GW predictions.
Andy, Leeds, UK
In common with a couple of other contributors, I find this piece misleading.
First you say: "...research has now conclusively linked greenhouse gases to heavier downpours."
You then say: "[Computer modelling] suggests strongly that human-induced climate change has been responsible."
Is it a 'conclusive link' or a 'strong suggestion'? Or (as I suspect) is reality saved until the penultimate paragraph?:
"It is currently impossible to say whether the current bad weather is a result of global warming, and more research is needed into the origins of such extreme events."
Andy, Cambridge,
Global Warming and Climate Change are buzz words dominating the media and so it is very easy to blame anything on these. Until there is solid, non-contradictory proof who knows what is going on. Scientifically, we will not know for another 100 years or so when a "wide enough" range of data is available for analysis.
Funny how no one mentions two of the most obvious causes for the flooding though : -
1. Poor and badly maintained drainage systems
2. Building on flood plains
Rob, Southampton, Hants
The trouble is not actually weather or climate change ---both of these in their extremes were here before man trod the Earth and they will still be here after we have gone! What we do have is too much "reporting", too much 24/7 TV " Wow Gasp!" TV, too much news on the hour, and far far too many newspaper articles written by Scientists and Editors with an ill- concealed agenda to obtain financing and to further secure their funding and over-salaried positions .
All of which are founded on ill thought out ideas promoted by attention seeking bearded twits, most of whom have contributed nothing but hot air since the day they were spawned.
I am off to burn a few plastic bags in the garden--that should help to warm up our already cold damp UK weather pattern
Bill Armstrong, Harrogate, England
Agreement amongst scientists about a theory does not a truth make! 100 years ago there was a thing called eugenics, most of the scienific community supported it. The upshot was the death camps of Nazi Germany. Who believes in eugenics now?
Androgenic global warming is a theory, not a truth. Let us be a little wary before we destroy our civilisation for a theory.
Tim Rankin, Bowral, Australia
The Hadley Centre Climate forecasts predict that summer rainfall will DECREASE in the future.
Bishop Hill, Scotland,
Simulations are like miniskirts, they show a lot and hide the essentials. â Hubert Kirrman
Costas, London,
The doomsayers are always happy to make the "facts" fit their theories; that is why they can ascribe hot, cold or dry weather to their pet theories. The only certainty is that our climate is a wonderfully complex thing that we do not fully understand. It is arrogant to think that we can control it or that our current climate pattern is the ideal one.
Hamish G, Peterborough,
Tom Scott,
History is the opinion of the person who wrote it. It is not necessarily a fact set in stone. You refer to the second world war. Until 1990, was it not a terrible 'fact' that 2.5 million people died at Auschwitz POW camp during the second world war ? This, I'm sure you'd agree is a seriously important 'fact'. Isn't it ? Presumably we can assume it is correct. Can we ? Nobody would dare to question this horrible 'truth'. Why then, 45 years later, in 1990 did the Polish government revise this figure to 1.1 million. That's less than half of the original 'factual' number. The only fact here is that the Polish government have admitted that the original figure was incorrect and have revised it. Interesting and absolutely true and my point is that this clearly shows that NOTHING is sacred when there is an advantage to be had by manipulating the figures.
Andrew Connor, Hounslow, UK
The apparent serendipity of a report being released now, that specifically says that global warming will cause increase rainfall, does seem to be wearing the publics gullibility a bit thin, as others have mentioned, similar confident assertions of a scorching summer were reported from equally valid sounding appropriately timed 'reports'.
Iâm sure that 14 different computer models may have given some 'scientists' an exciting moment of confirmation, although I wonder how many other models werenât quite so rewarding in this 'infinite monkeys' game?
I have a feeling that this kind of reporting will have the reverse effect than intended, and just add to the drip, drip, drip effect of 'the science' (whatever that is), losing credibility.
Simon, Leeds,
When will man face the inevitable, that Nature cannot be modelled, predicted or controlled, King Canute tried by example, to show his fawning Courtiers, that tidal flow was inevitable.
Fawning Scientists appear to be resolute in proving Canute wrong.
Tom Edwards, Taunton,
"The actual pattern of changes, with increased precipitation in latitudes north of 50 degrees, corresponds remarkably closely with the patterns that emerged from 14 different models. This suggests strongly that human-induced climate change has been responsible."
This is junk science. How did people build these models other than by matching them to historical records of climate change ? All this paragrah says is that the models reflect the data used to build them. Hardly amazing. A proper scientific approach would be to use these models to predict FUTURE climate change over the next 5-10 years and see how accurate they are.
All the evidence for climate change being man-made is based on man-made computer models whose predictive accuracy has not been proven.
Roy Grainger, London, UK
"It is currently impossible to say whether the current bad weather is a result of global warming" but, boy, do you try, don't you?
The whole article is full of contradictions and the heading is misleading, to say the least.
What about a reality check?
John, London, UK
The crypto-communist "greens" will now be barking for higher taxes and more restrictions on our liberties. These people have no concept that the freedoms we enjoy right now are worth a million times the claimed benefits of reducing CO2 emissions - benefits which may or may not accrue in the distant future.
There is absolutely no point deliberately inflicting a miserable "low carbon" existence on ourselves. Future generations will not notice and will not thank us.
David Rochester, Liverpool, UK
Things will only get worse, now that China has surpassed the U.S. in carbon emissions and will actually spew even more with no end in sight. The U.S. thinks that if they (The U.S.) curb their emissions then things will slowly creep back to "normality" This will never happen.
Marque Glisson, pacifica, ca. USA
"Rebecca, Epping, Aus" asks "Has Cynosarges not seen the film 'The Day After Tomorrow'?"
Yes I have, and it was a piece of fantasy, not fact. I do hope that Rebecca can distinguish between the two, but her posting raises serious doubts.
Rebecca continues " I saw a British documentary last year that said that, yes, Global Warming could lead to a Mediterranean climate, but that it could also lead to widespread flooding and there was a graphic of Lonon underwater."
Unfortunately for Rebecca's argument (if it can be distinguished with this term), until a few weeks ago, *all* the claims about global warming argued that summers would be dry and winters wet (which is the distinguishing feature of the Mediterranean climate, Rebecca!). NOT summer storms. This is the FACT that global warming ranters are trying to ignore, and need to explain. The FACT that NONE of the computer models predicted weather of this type raises serious questions about the trust placed in the models.
Cynosarges, London, UK
I would like to bring your attention to the fact that as recently as April this year the Met Office forecast claimed that (this summer) '......is unlikely to be extremely wet or extremely dry'. A spokesman, one Wayne Elliott said "There is a very good chance that this summer will be hotter than the average'.
A contender for 'famous last words', perchance?
Richard Nixon, Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
If we keep being told that we have to pay more and more taxes because of climate change i.e. the weather, when people in Britain now pay more tax than even the Germans (I'm still incredulous at that) there is going to be a revolution.
If half the oil is gone then when the next half is gone in about five years according to the Times, then global warming will stop, so no worries, just a lightly warmer climate for the next few generations.
Clark, Gen., Switz.
If increased rainfall is due to climate change/global warming why was it only a few years back our aquafers were drying up and we needed prolonged rainful to put them back to past levels.
Andrew, Oxford,
Its funny, back in April when we had 2 weeks of warmer than normal weather it was blamed on global warming, and we was told that 2007 was going to be the hottest summer on record because of gobal warming. Now after a whole summer of rain and cool weather, surprise we are now told this is because of global warming! Although climate change must be in some part due to humans, its more likely cycles and this year its a wet one. But if we said that, then how to we justify raising tax's to help global warming? So what they do is to change the story to fit and hope people are too stupid to see what a tax raising scam it all is. Make people feel guilty and you can raise tax's easy!
Graham, Southend, Essex
As reported in the Times a number of weeks ago 1903 saw flooding of England on a similar scale of that which we have seen recently. Was this down to Global warming? - If it was I suspect we would all be 'fried' by now!...we have to accept that sometimes it's going to rain!
Carlos Edvarduo Millamo, Madrid, Spain
Since climate change is not a local phenomenon, blaming both unusually wet and unusually dry summers on it is not necessarily inconsistent. Depends where the anticyclones end up (which is a process occurring on a far greater scale than the UK): if they end up over us, we get a dry summer, if they end up at different latitudes, then we get the storms forced over our heads. Climate change could be expected to intensify both storms and anticyclones, so going on about how it is all so inconsistent is to miss the point.
Andy, London, UK
This is all rather strange. There seems to be a complete embargo on discussing the influence of El Nino in all of this! An El Nino year was announced last November and they are always wet because the jet stream shuts down and dumps water on us all. I think 8-9 months warning is quite useful for emergency planning.... That does not mean no climate change, it just makes it more complex. And the weather is complex. I think we can actually cope better with that idea than all the hot air that is spouted on poor science and propaganda....
Amanda, Brighton, UK
This is a major disaster for hundreds of thousands of British people. Where's Bob Geldof?
Sidney, London,
It seems to me that scientist believe that there is some sort of absolute and predictable cyclic weather pattern that we should all expect in all the different regions of the globe throughout the various seasons. I'd like them to publish papers informing us exactly what these ânormalâ weather patterns were over (lets say) the last 3,000 years, what they should be today having removed human influences from their models, and what they will be 3,000 thousands years from now, with and without human influence.
Joe Kuzak, Chelmsford, Essex
At least there's no hosepipe ban this year. Might have to go buy a 4x4 now, seems a bit damp here. I blame all the hot air from the environmentalists...
Alastair, Leamington Spa, UK
it is really hard to say
terence, london,
"...corresponds remarkably closely with the patterns that emerged from 14 different models..."
Do they say how many models it did not correspond with? Self-selection is all good for social "sciences", it is not enough in real Science.
Frederick Davies, Oxford, UK
This is all a big lead up to green taxes, The government will use this and the climate change to raise taxes that will be spent on anything but climate change.
They now have the best excuse in history to raise taxes.
Peter , Sheffield, Yorkshire
So, we are responsible for global warming? Just a couple of questions?
1. There have been multiple ice ages - and the earth warmed up to end them. I'm sure there were lots of cars and planes around then!
2. I notice no-one ever goes back to the research published last year that showed that the earth takes a "lurch" towards the sun every few million years.
I don't think anyone doubts that warming is ocurring but whether we have as much of an influence as the "global warming industry" suggests I doubt. There are a lot of dollars and jobs tied up in global warming - and we have to be given something else to be scared of now that the cold war has ended.
Kim Lawley, Nottingham, Notts
The theories of global change; predict all possibilities so their can be no discussion; so to bamboozle the public and misdirects them away from the fact i.e. temperatures since 2000 have been steady, MWP had temperatures higher than to day, during the 50-60 we saw temperatures drop even while CO2 was increasing⦠However, all this will do is make the public mistrust the media and politicians how are exploiting this issue. Donât believe the hype look at the facts, like past weather.
1986 wettest august bank holiday on record.
1912 wettest august on record.
1903 wettest summer on record.
1860 wettest year on record; all with out CO2.
Finally remember that if you build on flood plains you will increase the cost of floods along with the severity.
Paul Graham, Greenwich,
The Day After Tomorrow as a factual reference point? Has Rebecca from Epping, Australia also seen Independence Day by the same director and has she found any aliens yet? Still, it's probably as good a reference point as Gore's propaganda movie.
Kevin, Reading, England
There's nothing new about floods. They've happened since time immemorial so why are they suddenly alleged to be the result of 'global warming' ? Probably so as to stoke up more support for the alarmist nonsense promulgated by the IPCC and Al Gore.
I do hope government finally sees sense and we see an end to planning permission for homes on flood plains.
Graham Stevenson, St Albans, Herts
see the film An Inconvenient Truth and then speak.
What if the scientists are wrong? What can we lose by having cleaner air? Fewer deaths of rare species, a better life balance? More awareness of the impact we have on the planet ? A more responsible attitude to waste etc etc
What if the scientists are right ?
nwood, Chatham, UK
I saw worse floods in the early 50's in which I almost drowned.
Paul O'Rourke, Rochester, UK
The flooding in the UK is nothing new. The floods in Toll Barr & Bentley occur naturally every so often. Andy is right, drainage is the problem not global warming. More money should be invested into greatly improving our existing drainage systems to allow the water to drain away more rapidly & divert it to areas that need it.
I believe there is a ground swell of opinion within the Britsh public that feel that all this talk of "climate change" is simply just another way to squeeze more cash from us in taxes. Remember the climate changes & always will do irrespective of what you or I do!! Let's not be so arrogant as to think that we humans can control Mother Nature.
Paul, Doncaster, Eng
What a mess! In the UK there are floods and in my country, Greece, the temperature is 45 degrees Celsius and most forests are burning! My mother almost fainted yesterday from the heat.
Sophia, London, UK
Britain is the Most over populated country in the world I live in Islington and within the last decade evry foot of available land has been built on Inc parks & any piece of green space,. Will these governments not be satisfied until the whole of Britain is covered in concrete and the worlds population is bought here.and millions more homes are built.
This flooding must be a wake up call.
George deighton, london, uk
Has any thought that if the rivers were dredged regularly and ditches dug out and kept clear of rubbish like they used to be, and flood plains were left as flood plains instead of becoming housing estates, there wouldn' be as much damage due to flooding. The Tewkesbury / Upton on Severn towns hav always suffered from flooding, gradually as rivers remain undredged and ditches filled in, and flood plains built on, they've had worse and worse flood damage. All this water has to go somewhere and it finds its own way hence properties that have never been flooded before are now
H Fowler, Worcestershire,
There has been change.
It is Interesting how "Global Warming" became "Climate Change"
It is curious how speculaton, computer models, extrapolation etc., mutated into hard scientific fact.
The hysterical tone, the procrustean theorising, the ad hominem attacks and the clumsy analogies, WW2 etc, are a good indication of the true level of confidence that the Global Warming ideologues have in their secular religion.
Mark Lyndon, London, UK
It's weather, not climate. Over the previous couple of years we've had periods of cool and dry (winter 05-06), mild and wet (spring 06), hot and dry (summer 06), mild and wet (last autumn-winter) and now cool and wet (this summer). Somehow all of these have been attributed to climate change.
We are at the Atlantic margin, and get most of our weather from the prevailing westerlies. Britain is an often wet country; it is unusual but not unprecedented to have such a total wash-out in early summer.
The biggest human finger-print observable in the flooding is that hard landscaping (roads, buildings etc) do not provide as good protection as natural flood plains.
Dr Ian Blanchard, St Albans, UK
sorry chris - misread u. my mistake. apologies.
Andrew Connor, Hounslow, UK
Andrew Connor Hounslow sums it up brilliantly. Global warming is nothing more than a new religous faith designed by politicians to allow the to tax us more - proof - the ridiculous extra tax on flying which will deter no one, but will raise millions for the treasury. The scientists backing the politicians are simply the equivalent of the tax gatherers employed by feudal landlords in the middle ages, rewarded by their political masters for giving them the power to collect taxes.
If global warming is such an issue, why are some of the most powerful organisations on Earth responsible for all the new buildings being built on low ground in London, evidenced by all the cranes, yet there are no new prestigous office blocks being built on higher ground a few miles away ?.
tony, birmingham, uk
Has anyone else noticed that the only people who reply to any of these articles pointing out that global warming and climate change are being caused by man seem to be trying to disparage the scientists studying this?
Haven't any of you seen "An Inconvenient Truth". Are you being paid to cast seeds of doubt on the validity of the research and those who spend a lot more time working on this than you or me?
When are we going to realise that the governments we "elect" and the big business that run them are slowly destroying the planet we live on?
As an expat living in China (and I am no green radical), I see daily what is happening and how it is affecting the environment and the people who live here.
Isn't it about time we starting doing something about it, rather than wasting our time trying to say that it's not really happening. People, WAKE UP!
gerrytubby, Beijing, China
It's amazing to see so many conflicting messages like in this article. There were apparently 60 years ago a quite similar picture in relation to the water level in some areas. This means that many people havenât seen anything like today as they are not that old to remember and the older generation is not asked as they are retired.
It comes down to "more research is needed ", which means more money for the poor scientists that would have nothing else to do.
The computer models are only models and can show anything that one wants. Turn off the computers or use them for something better. About 30 years ago scientists talked about âGlobal coolingâ and the next ice age is near. Look at history and you will find that grows of older civilization where related to a warming periods with higher temperatures than today.
Juergen Uhlemann, Naas,
To blame human activity on "climate change" is laughable. It is a known fact that climate change occurs naturally.
The recent green agenda started in the 70's by Maggie Thatcher as a way to support her spiteful programme of pit closures.
To believe that the human race can change or control the weather is arrogant to the extreme. It is the new religion & I for one am not joining it.
Reduce,recycle & re-use is a good way to live but not as a means of slowing down climate change because doing it will make absolutely no difference as it is a natural phenomnen.
The flooding we currently see would not occur if the drainage systems we have in the UK were improved in order to cope & divert water to where it is needed. The areas that have been flooded have always been prone to flooding to a lesser or greater extent over the years it's not a surprise event.
Paul, Doncaster, Eng
I cannot comment until I have read the Article in Nature. Clearly, the science writer's description of it is confusing because brief:
"... it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying." Difficult to imagine unless one reads the original paper.
"Britain will in general suffer wetter winters and drier summers, rather than multiple repeats of this yearâs summer downpours, ..." This is good news.
I hope I can read the original paper so as to understand what the editor's wild headline is all about, because it is not logically expressed in Henderson's article. In Gloucestershire, it would not be a "catastrophe" if the summers are drier.
Simon E. Bode, Bath, United Kingdom
So why was UK rainfall below average in 2005 and just about average in 2006?* Any unusual weather is taken as a confirming instance for the anthropogenic theory of global warming. This means that it is not a scientific theory but a matter of faith. It could still be right, but it's not authoritative.
*Met Office statistics.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
These 'climate change' scientists depend on governments for billions of pounds of research funds. Of course they're biased - their livlihoods depend on it - and 'suggest' (what a weasel word) that all weather events are due to 'mankind's footprint.' Here's the truth: it's NOT 'global warming' - it's SOLAR SYSTEM WARMING! Yes, earthocentrics, MARS is undergoing the same kind of warming as Earth. 'Mankind's footprint'? Don't be ridiculous!
Terry, London, Great Britain
Ridiculous, the weather was obviously equally bad 60 years ago when the last major floods happened in the same area, what caused it then? Was that too due to global warming?
dave, davetown,
I just love the irony of people denying global warming is man made citing that it's based on assumptions when they are making assumptions about the very opposite.
Unless of course you ARE an expert at the climate etc in which case I apologise. And since you know so much about how the world's climate works, why don't you bring forward your indisputable evidence and end the debate?
Justin, London,
The apparent serendipity of a report being released now, that specifically says that global warming will cause increase rainfall, does seem to be wearing the publics gullibility a bit thin, as others have mentioned, similar confident assertions of a scorching summer were reported from equally valid sounding 'reports' when the weather looked warmer.
I'm sure that 14 different computer models may have given some scientists an exciting moment of confirmation, although I wonder how many other models werenât quite so rewarding in this 'infinite monkeys' game?
I have a feeling that this kind of reporting will have the reverse effect than intended, and just add to the drip, drip, drip effect of 'the science' (whatever that is), losing credibility.
Simon, Leeds,
The only thing it is possible to predict is that when the weather isn't pleasant (not too hot, not too wet) then you are assured that some research funding seeking scientist will manipulate some figures to prove the government needs to pay him for at least another year.
It is surprising that only on 8th April 2007, The headline in the Observer was "Hot summer on the way, predicts Met" - so if the Official weather forecasters can't even get it right 3 months in advance - why are we even considering listening to anyone who is screaming 'Sky is falling??!!'
Are they blaming Climate Change on their inability to forecast the weather??!!
Oli Rhys, Chester, UK
If the recent flooding is due to "man-made global warming" and is "unprecedented", how did the river flood plains come into existence?
Dave Middleton, Storton, UK
It's about time people got back to the real nitty gritty, the population of this planet is just too great, Only when something is done about that will we beging to restore the ballance. It's not carbon, it's people! I know people make carbon, but with some parts of the worlds population breeding like rabbits, were never going to get on top of this thing!
Ray Baker, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
I'm afraid I'm still not convinced by the Global Warming scaremongers - the proper research that disputes it is strangely suppressed. I think I'll just blame the moon and the tides for the weather, better that way.
Bernard Quatermass, Paisley, renfrewshire
I find it hilarious that one year ago it was incrdibly hot and what did the "scientists" blame it on. Global warming. And now the exact opposite is happening and what are people blaming it on. Global warming. Bottom line is that man made global warming is not happening and their are dozens of facts that controdict it and prove it's not happening. It's all part of the modern day "panicky idiot generation"
sam hawksworth, Derbyshire, UK
Well, I do agree that to some extent global warming is induced by human deeds though one wet summer alone can't justify for the changing weather scenarios in Britain. As mentioned in the article, in the past too U.K. has witnessed very wet summers. The coming years will show if actually this change of weather in the U.K. is permanent or temporary.
snowy, Jaipur, India
Are these the same scientists who only two years ago were saying that we'd have to get used to drought conditions in the UK?
Remember the 70's? We were heading for a new ice age and all the oil would be gone by the 90's.
Every day they say something that was good for you is bad for you. Personally I gave up caring what they say a long time ago. Getting new research grants is more important to them than the truth.
Adrian Matthews, Horley, Surrey
Let's not forget that the summer been mild, balmy and dry, then that , too, would have been due to global warming. Or does GW only cause dramatic weather?
Frank Adey, Wolverhampton, United Kingdom
"We now have evidence from the Earth's history that a similar event happened fifty-five million years ago when a geological accident released into the air more than a terraton of gaseous carbon compounds. As a consequence the temperature in the arctic and temperate regions rose eight degree Celsius and in tropical regions about five degrees, and it took over one hundred thousand years before normality was restored. We have already put more than half this quantity of carbon gas into the air and now the Earth is weakened by the loss of land we took to feed and house ourselves. In addition, the sun is now warmer, and as a consequence the Earth is now returning to the hot state it was in before, millions of years ago, and as it warms, most living things will die." (Revenge of Gaia)
The heavy rainfall in Britain is only the beginning-imagine what will happen as global warming increases exponentially. That excess CO2 must be removed from the air as soon as possible or else...
Brad Arnold, St Louis Park, USA/MN
Climate change used to be called weather. Our climate has always changed cooling then warming so it is nothing new as you are making out. Every change in the weather is reported as is these things had never happened before.
In previous times these people would have been members of The Flat Earth Society.
Johnny Norfolk, Mileham, England
SO it has got absolutely nothing to do with the man made bombs that are being dropped on foreign countries then?
Its just all of us citizens at fault is it?We have been dictated on how to live our lives for years and now they are going to dictate to us how we are to blame?If the government would allow us to buy plant seeds and grow our own food that would cut down a lot of unneccesary travelling importing etc.But no,you can only buy seeds that are 1 year use only.why?So that we still have to rely on the government to supply these for us by importing .The government are accountable for this,they have stopped us being self sufficient ,banning bows and arrows so we cant hunt.One of the earliest forms of survival,hunter gatherers, ,look where it has lead us.Over-consumerism and greed on a massive scale.I mean who out there bought a dishwasher?Waste of energy but i bet millions bought them.I havent had many luxuries in my life and im soo glad i didnt. what i dont know i wont miss.AND YOU?
Tracey Ace, derbyshire, u.k.
stop winging and do something about it, im 20 and from australia backpacking over here at the moment and over there we are having the worst drought in history, this is only a taste of whats to come for over here
Stephen, Ipswich, formerly Australia,
I've never read such tripe in all my life. Whatever the weather is - hot, warm, moist, cool, very wet - it's all Man Made. Except when it's an Act of God to excuse insurance payouts.
And of course it's a Natural Disaster when it comes to the TV documentary.
Bottom line is. It's just weather. The fact is a lot of governments stand to profit hugely by taxing humans for something we cannot stop ot divert. Very clever eh?
Chris Williams, Cardiff, UK
Climate modellers make a series of assumptions about radiation, properties of the atmosphere, the earth's reflectivity and then use powerful computers to arrive at conclusion based on assumptions. People should be sceptical especially when the PM comes out faced with disaster and in his attempt to appear masterful blames the climate. Planning the infrastructure is about accommodating the climate. On our farm in Suffolk we have rainfall records going back to 1956, and the rainfall has been pretty regular. We always start harvest around 15 July and usually finish by the first week in September. Along the way we have had wet, dry and cold times, but overall the variations have been small. Environment Agency spokesmen have said recent events are 1in 40, 1in 200 and 1in 400 years events but none are statistically "unforeseeable" events. What parameter should be applied to checking the capacity of the river systems and surface drainage? Ask the Netherlands they are a drained flood plain.
j.kelleway, bern, switzerland
I never realised that to be a member of the scientific community meant that you had to be a sheep like automaton regurgitating the beliefs of the majority of other robo-sheep-scientists around the world. I use the word belief because that is the only word to describe the idea that mankind's activities are in any way responsible for the rain in the UK over the last month. To suggest that this is due to 'Global Warming' is quite frankly a joke. a scary joke. Scary because supposedly intelligent people believe it. We all know how unrelieble weather forecasts are. Are we now expected to believe that suddenly we have the ability to miraculously know who was responsible for a particular rain storm when we cannot even predict tomorrow's weather with certainty ??
Natural, cyclical Global Warming exists. Manmade Global Warming is a FAITH created and designed to manipulate YOUR behaviour.
Andrew Connor, Hounslow, UK
It's truly amazing that so many people are still trying tp deny the overwhelming scientific evidence as to the reality of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Their comments show a woeful ignorance not just of what climate scientists are sayng, but even about what climate scientists actually do. They look at averages and trends, and would be the first to emphasise that the complexity of weather systems makes it virtually impossible to connect any particular event to long-term trends.
But perhaps we should not be so surprised by people's almost limitless capacity to turn a blind eye to unpleasant realities. There were plenty of people before World War Two arguing that Herr Hitler represented no threat, despite the extremely strong evidence to the contrary. Head in the sand seems pretty much the default position in relation to dangers that seem too large to comprehend or too onerous to address. It's not a position we can afford to adopt in relation to climate change.
Tom Scott, Falmouth, UK
Perhaps we have too many universities, turning out too many experts, whose income seems in some fashion, proportionate to an ever increasing amount of unsubstantiated theorising.
However, given that the world is currently burning 25 million barrels per day of oil, plus millions of tonnes of coal, all finite energy sources, then it should be easy to work out that we are actually in the creek, we have lost our paddle, and that the smell really is just what you think .
Bill Evans, Landshipping , Y Ddraig Goch., Content
"the scientists compared recorded changes in rain and snowfall over land with changes that are predicted by climate models that account for global warming caused by greenhouse gases."
The question to be asked is HOW ACCURATE ARE THE CLIMATE MODELS??? and any true scientist will tell you, that they are very far from being that...
me, Fort William, Scotland
If they have conclusively linked greenhouse gases to heavier downpours then one assumes that they can conclusively link a reduction in greenhouse gases to lesser downpours. That given, I would like to know how much less rain we will get if we reduce our carbon output by 10, 20% etc. They should be able to tell us these things if their assertions are scientific and true (for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction etc.).
What these people are saying is that they can control the weather if we reduce our carbon output and do what they say. Anyone who thinks they can control what I have seen over the last few days is either deluded or arrogant or both.
Simon, Chatham, Kent
"Global warming is generating heavier rainfall over Britain of the sort that has triggered this weeks floods, scientists have confirmed for the first time"
First paragraph
"It is currently impossible to say whether the current bad weather is a result of global warming and more research is needed into the origins of such extreme events"
Last but one paragraph of the above article, which one it true?
Dave, Westbury, UK
From the article's title and first paragraph, I was expecting news of a study linking increased summer rainfall in the UK to climate change. But no. To quote from further down: "..other predictions suggest Britain will in general suffer wetter winters and drier summers.."
David Knell, London, UK
EVERY freak of nature is blamed on Man-Made Global Warming, and it's wearing a little thin, to be perfectly frank. A little over 6 months ago, our media was full of tales of untold terror as we were about to enter into the hottest, driest summer ever known to man - now that didn't happen did it?
Yesterday the BBC said this was the worst flooding since 1947, meaning that it was WORSE 60 years ago, without the influence mass global industry. You do not know what caused this flooding, but it happens in flood planes, which is why they're termed as such!
Daniel Maddock, West Midlands,
Has Cynosarges not seen the film 'The Day After Tomorrow'? Scientists have always said that global warming is leading to unpredictable climate change. I saw a British documentary last year that said that, yes, Global Warming could lead to a Mediterranean climate, but that it could also lead to widespread flooding and there was a graphic of Lonon underwater. The current systems of both air and sea are very complex which is why the results of increased icy water from the melting glaciers etc can't be accurately predicted. Might want to check your facts before your next rant.
Rebecca, Epping, Aus
Well we have been caught out haven't we. Any fool can see that if you keep on tarmacing, then water has nowhere to drain away to. Instead of all this house-building talk, we should be looking at constructing more reservoirs which in turn lead to country parks, wildlife etc etc all of environmental benefit. The Government should now have the guts to say, enough is enough, no more concrete, stop immigration, we are an Island after all. Only build on brownfield sites. Let's improve on what we have, not cover more of the country in concrete. Lunacy !! Can't see it happening though, not with the current totally spineless government. Nature can and will fight back !!! Roll on the hosepipe ban in August !
Andy, Birmingham, England
With all due respect, Mr. Science Editor... do you have any actual training in science or engineering?
Are you saying that the world's climate is static? That never in 4.5 billion years has Britain been warmer/colder/wetter/drier?
What about the Little Ice Age? What about all the other ice ages and warm periods? The "Year Without a Summer" (1816)? The Medieval Warm Period? The 1930's Dust Bowl?
It's been a little on the cool side here in Kansas City this spring - could it be an ice age?
Assuming that "climate change" (didn't you get the memo? It's not global warming anymore.) is man made - what's the solution? Huh?
Robert, Kansas City, MO, USA
If global warming causes increased rain, why hasn't it affected the UK during the last two decades? I seem to remember years of empty reservoirs and hosepipe bans! This claim reeks of dubious science, from "climatologists" with egg over their faces, as their claims of Britain getting a Mediterranean climate are washed out, desperately scrambling around, searching for any dubious method to blame the floods on global warming. They're so fixated on getting next year's "research" grant from the government that they're throwing out any remaining shreds of ethics.
Cynosarges, London, UK
You cannot state theorey as fact. Man's influence on GW is still unproven THEOREY. Do you know the difference?
Saying it over and over doesn't make it any more true.
John M, Boise, ID, US
Please explain 1903 the wettest year on record; the only difference is we now build on flood plains, which as we all know is stupid...
Paul Graham, Greenwich,