Torrential rains, waterlogged fields and music festivals turned into mudbaths. Yes, summer has arrived, with flashfloods in Somerset on Thursday evening washing out the Sunrise Festival at Shepton Mallett (Times Online, May 30). There must be a horrible sense of foreboding for anyone hoping to go to the Glastonbury Festival at the end of next month, with memories of last year’s quagmire. But will the dire weather pattern of last June repeat itself this year?

“Flaming June” traditionally begins on a wet note, as low-pressure systems drench much of the country. Sometimes called the European monsoon, this rainy season is caused by a resurgence in Atlantic weather. During much of the springtime, wet westerly winds off the Atlantic tend to slacken off. But around this time of year the westerly winds pick up again with rains that often burst through in two waves, at the beginning of June and another around a fortnight later, often just in time for Wimbledon tennis. Although this is a very predictable phenomenon, quite what drives it is far less clear.

So far the weather has not been quite as westerly as this time last year. But one alarming similarity is the southerly track of the high-altitude jet stream, which brought bands of slow-moving rain last summer. All hopes are that the jet stream will shift north of the UK and take its wretched weather with it.