Jonathan Leake.
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METEOROLOGISTS have blamed Britain’s wet summer on the unusual position of the jet stream, a belt of fast-moving air 36,000ft above the earth that controls the movements of bad-weather systems.
During most summers the jet stream lies across the north Atlantic, effectively penning bad weather there and in the Greenland Sea so that only Iceland and Scandinavia are affected by them.
This allows anti-cyclones, the high-pressure weather systems associated with warm, sunny summer weather, to move up from Europe to cover Britain.
This year, however, the jet stream has moved several hundred miles to the south. This has allowed depressions, the low-pressure weather systems that bring storms and heavy rain, to batter Britain.
The Met Office believes it is possible this weather pattern may now remain over Britain throughout this month and next, making the whole summer a washout.
The situation has been made worse by the hot and sunny weather systems lying over much of central and south eastern Europe. These interact with depressions to generate the storms and cloudbursts behind the recent floods.
Why, though, has the jet stream shifted southwards? Scientists are not sure of all the reasons but believe there is a link to a natural phenomenon known as La Niña.
This occurs when cool water surges up from the bottom of the Pacific off Peru. The water cools the air above it, setting off a series of changes in the Earth’s atmospheric circulation.
Other factors appear to be at work too. One of them could be the warming of the Atlantic. Matt Huddleston, principal climate change consultant at the Met Office, said such conditions were one of the effects of climate change.
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'Global warming' is a natural temperature fluctuation that's existed ever since God was a lad, and is due to volcanic, geothermal and, more importantly, solar activity. Man has nothing to do with it - except using it to get more money out of us. Can we go back to calling climate change, the Weather?
Malc, Rushden, UK
Why is it that, if the jet stream is so important to weather forecasting, the BBC do not constantly refer to it in their forecasts? I have to say that I am, also, disappointed to witness the adulteration of the English language by the other correspondents and their appalling lack of ability to spell correctly. There is no excuse with the free availability of an English dictionary and the associated facility to check the spelling of any word used! How slovenly can you get!
Howell, Bridgend,
Your answer is clearly shown on a sunny day by looking up at the sky, which is no longer the clear blue I and many others will remember well. Instead of which it is now a pasty blue, due to very high level vapour trails left by aircraft. Which also shields off much of the sunlight and thus badly affects tracks of those vital jet streams.
Foretaste of all this together with gathering of vital temperature statistics was ably gathered by a US scientist before and during the three day stopage of fights across USA following destruction of those two skyscrapers. When temperatures rose by two degrees!
Meanwhile false trails now founded on high level coal smoke fumes, can be ignored. I well remembering how these always fell back before reaching any altitude due to being too heavy. Owing to which many must also remember how many were killed due to poisionous sulphurous fumes and CO2.
Keith Tricker, Clacton, Essex
Actually the scares over the hole in the ozone layer passed because of internation effort resulting in the banning of CFCs that were causing the problem in the first place. It wasn't just amother scare that mended itself, anymore than climate change will.
Howell, Reading,
tell the goverment to commute on the buses instead of thier 5litre bently's. that should help save climate change
white, oldbury, west midlands
Having spent the last 6 years selling global weather forecasting services, I have had a good insite into the trends in the weather as well as talking to other people in the industry about it. There can be no dounbt that the extremes of weather are getting further apart. Winds are higher, seas are rougher, and the storms are bigger. There can be no doubt that this is only the start, and we, as they say, are living in interesting times. It also seems that things are becoming less predicatble, so this time next year the southern UK may look like the south of Spain. So make the most of the water while we have it.
Bob Billett, Bushey, Herts
Look at the evidence of tree rings, then you will find that on average there is a ten year cycle of weather pattern.
GLOBAL WARMING = just a current buzz phrase, it will pass as did the scare over holes in the ozone layer.
Better understanding of the Jet Stream should eventualy bring slightly more accurate weather forcasts, but in the meantime I would not hold your breath, as despite the inordinate sum of money expended on the British Met.Office, we are still no futher on from the famous day when senior British weather forcaster Michael Fish said "What Hurricane".
The disaster that followed that statement resulted in questions in the British Houses of Parliament, both on the reliability of the Met Office Forcasts and the vast amount of money expended on the Met. Office.
Result was that definative long range forcasts are no longer permitted.
With the generalisations given in the spring for the summer of 2007, then it should come as no surpise that the results are wide of the mark.
M Stocks, Halifax, Weat Yorkshire, UK
If the Jet Stream is the cause of the recent bad weather why is it not mentioned in the National and Regional daily weather forecast, American weather forecast do?? Then at least we can understand why the climate changes when the Jet Stream moves its position.
tony, Coningsby, Lincolnshire
If, as we are told by the experts, the current extreme weather is significantly influenced by mans activity on this planet - would not an objective response be to seek ways to limit or cut back the weight of man's presence on this planet . For the life of me, I cant see how using more fuel efficient cars, energy efficient lightbulbs etc will make a realistic impact against the strongly increasing demands for energy , travel and food by a burgeoning world population. Let's address the cause not the symptoms!
Bob Evans, Haverfordwest, Dyfed
changes happen,and the weather is one of them,nothing can stop this,its a change of all things. no one agrees on whats happening,scientists disagree,so there for it is beyond there understanding,if i were to tell you that this time its because enough is enough,and nature is trying to tell us.
adam cotterell, carloway, scotland
It is a well-known documented prediction that climate change will lead to more extremes of both temperature and rainfall. Yet even when most of the genuine scientists agree that this is happening and the events around the world (let alone the unprecedented SUMMER flooding in this country ) confirm it, the sun-worshippers still bow down and pray to the Sun God.
We have had lots of flooding in the past 100 years but never on such a scale in summer months. Most of our flooding has occurred in the spring when melting snow combined with heavy rainfall. But this different.
Get used to it folks because this is just the beginning.
dennis ward, colne, england
A study of reports around the world shows that 2007 is a year of extremes for the weather in near all parts of the globe. Global warming is a myth, and cannot explain the sudden extremes of weather we have experienced this year. The planet is warming, but this is natural and not due to man, we are still moving out of an ice age. The atmospheric and oceanic systems have been disrupted this year, but I do not think the scientists currently know what is causing it. I do not think these weather conditions are an exception, but part of a more longterm change in the climate.
Mabon Dane, Haverhill, UK
The irony of the recent deluge is the long range weather forecast experts ?? from the Met Office were predicting the hottest summer for centuries back in february - and no doubt spurred on by this advice many DIY stores devoted at least 2 rows of racking space to air conditioning units.
Now these DIY stores cannot sell them for love or money. What I want to know is when is the famous water current - the Gulf Stream going to change direction - many docmentaries had been saying that Britain would be thrown into a mini ice age with average winter temperatures the same as Nova Scotia in Canada.
John William, Southampton, Hants
The planet has been around for billions of years and we have been around for a few thousand, only in the last few hundred years have we been recording weather patterns yet suddenly we know everything? My question to the scientists is why in the seventies were we being told there was a new ice age on the way, now were all going to be flooded. This is just another goverment scam to get more taxes
Dean Andrew, Sheffield,
Im sure that our polluting of the atmosphere does have an effect on the weather patterns.
However, why do we think that just because we are on the planet now, nothing should change!
Mother Earth has been evolving and going through change for millions of years, and she will continue despite what we do or dont do.
If we really wanted to do something positive, we should stop wasting money on people who have been naturally selected to die, and therefore stop over populating the planet, and then spend the money on space exploration so we can find somewhere to go, and a means of getting there, before this planet goes pop!
Pete, St Albans,
Climate is what one expects. Weather is what one gets!
How ironic; Texas and England having the same weather this summer.
All of this notwithstanding, I remain a skeptic of man's influence on the climate.
Frank Oudkirk, Roswell/Atlanta Metro, Gerogia/USA
From memory, this type of jet stream induced summer washout happens at least once a decade in the UK, and it's always associated with severe and unbearable heatwaves over the continent. It's nothing new and had happened many times before the phrase "global warming" ever came into our everyday conversation! The increasing extreme nature of the effect of the jet stream however may indeed be a cause of more energy in the warming Atlantic caused by global warming. So the jet stream problem is not new, but the severity of its effects might be!
Max, Manchester, UK
" movements of bad-weather systems" a great piece of reporting. I didnt realise weather systems were 'good' or 'bad', can they also be 'evil'?
Andy, London, UK
For whatever reason, our climate appears to be changing, possibly for the worse. We don't seem to be able to agree on cause and effect but perhaps we can start to think about the practical impact on how we live - if we are to have arctic winters and miserable summers in Northern Europe then perhaps we should be thinking about buying properties in warmer places sooner rather than later - There's just not enough property and room for all of us in Southern Spain, Italy and Portugal!
Justin M Teixeira-Vaz, Tavira, Portugal
In the last days there will be floods...
Hugh, London, Albion
Mankind has changed added about 50% to the amount of CO2 in the air already and we are adding more at a faster and faster rate. The climate has always changed but we have added to that by changes to the air. Just like some one who has a drink problem the people destroying our planet are angry when shown the evidence. We need to change our ways.
Keith Kondakor, Nuneaton, Warks,
Talking of 'tosh', Martin of London cites the famous climate experts Stephen Hawkings and David Attenborough to support the argument that 'the debate is now over' on anthroprogenic global warming.
Clearing in some quarters it never actually began. A couple of nights ago the BBC showed a clip of a Jeep 4x4 apparently stalling while driving through a flood - with the BBC these days you can never be sure what you are been shown - while the correspondent intoned "the weather gets its revenge on an SUV that caused it".
dom in oxford, oxford,
The jet stream affects our weather far more than any talk of global warming. It is hardly ever mentioned in weather forcasts, unlike the USA, where it is understood what the effects of the jet stream position are.
I would suggest our forcastsers do the same. Leave the talk about climate change to politicians, and give us the facts about the jet stream.
JohnnyNorfolk, Mileham Norfolk, GB
Interesting that some scientists who believe in AGW feel free to speak for all scientists.
Many highly respected senior scientists have vocalized their skepticism about the severity of the impact of anthropogenic CO2 on climate, yet a few (like Lockwood) have shown the remarkable arrogance to ignore their peers.
The scientific debate must always remain open, or we rapidly descend into the dark ages.
Patrick Henry, Bristol, UK
El Nina is driven by solar activity. I actually laughed out loud recently when the BBC proclaimed "scientist disproves solar activity as being the source of global warming". The scientist in question (Michael Lockwood) had reportedly disproved that the sun could possibly be responsible for weather patterns on earth. What utter tosh. No scientific evidence was provided, no credible research, no scientific method. The story was laughable to amyone with knowledge of the scientific process.
peterj, Aberdeen, UK
Michael, the science is NOT divided about man made climate science. Nasa agree. Harvard, Yale, Oxford, Cambridge agree. The American Academy of Sciences, The UK's Royal Society. David Attenborough, Stephen Hawking. They all agree. Dont be taken in by the lies of Channel 4s documentary which is being investigated by the ITV after a complaint from one of the scientists in it!
And Jon if you could be bothered to read up about this you would realise that climate change makes its hotter, wetter, wilder - it intensifies extremes. We are in deep deep trouble. Try looking at what Nasa's head climatologist James Hansen says rather than listening to tabloids and dodgy discredited TV documentaries. We are running out of time but I daresay youll dismiss it as the flood water rises above your childrens necks.
Martin, London,
As a retired scientist I know how uncertain science and scientists can be. Engineers also know and ought to be brought in by goverments and the U.N. They work on worst case scenarios and these would be Bangladesh under water in 20 years - possibly!
David, Colchester, U.K.
Climate change my a**e! These scaremongers have got it covered at all angles haven't they? We get a hot summer and it's down to climate change, a wet summer is down to climate change, a cold summer would undoubtably be for the same reason. Don't believe a word of this tosh. It's all perfectly natural and all completely exploitable.
jon, derby, uk
the truth is that we simply don't know what is causing all these climatic changes.co2 may not be the real reason after all and science is divided on this despite what our politicians are saying.last april we were clearly told that this would be the hottest of summers..some forecast!climate has aways changed and will in the future .lets get the science right before making more useless predictions...
michael blunden, kingslangley, england
And all this because of you wicked people who insist in driving around in 4x4's and flying off to exotic places. Thankfully this can all be fixed by increasing taxes in road duty and airport taxes.
Andy Myers, shrewsbury, UK