Last summer’s floods in England were a freak event and not a consequence of climate change. According to a report from the Centre for Hydrology & Ecology (CEH), the remarkable rainfalls and floods were a sign of the unpredictable nature of the British climate.

There has been nothing like the summer floods of 2007 in recent times. The average rainfall between May and July was the highest since at least 1766 and went completely against the trend for drier summers and wetter winters, which fits the predictions of many climate change models for the UK. However, data on river flows over the past 40 years shows little compelling evidence to suggest that flooding is increasing in Britain.

A bigger problem is building in areas prone to flooding. “Extreme flooding in the UK is historically rare but vulnerability to flooding has increased markedly as a consequence of flood-plain development,” says Terry Marsh, of the CEH.

Another study, from the University of East Anglia, also revealed that winter and spring rains have become more intense in the past century. Data collated from hundreds of daily records since 1900 showed that heavy rains in winter have increased over the past 40 years across the UK.