Paul Simons
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Get out the woolly jumpers — Britain is about to experience a cold blast over the next few days and possibly much longer. The only bonus is that the weather will also turn much drier and quieter than that we have been used to recently.
For the best part of 50 days the country has faced the full fury of Atlantic storms. Met Office figures just released also reveal that rainfall from October 16 to December 6 was 319.8mm (12.59in), 64 per cent above average for this period. It was also the wettest November on record and records were set for 24-hour and 48-hour rainfalls.
However, it was also remarkably warm, making last month the seventh-warmest November in Central England records dating back to 1659. Autumn was 1.2C (2.2F) warmer than normal, making it the sixth-mildest autumn for almost a century. This is why there was very little frost, the trees held on to their leaves longer than normal, and blackbirds have been singing when they should be quiet.
But that is all about to change. A block of high pressure is building up from the Continent, shielding us from the barrage of depressions rolling off the Atlantic, giving much drier conditions that should allow river levels to subside and bring a much needed respite for flood-ravaged areas. But the anticyclone is also going to drag down bitterly cold air from Scandinavia, and temperatures tomorrow night could drop to minus 3C (27F) in the Midlands, with a widespread frost, and the added threat of mist and fog in the calm, cold conditions. From then on temperatures will slide downhill over the following days.
“Weekend minimums, at this stage, look like being over parts of northern England and Central Scotland, where lows could fall to minus 6C or minus 7C in some spots,” said John Hammond, of the Met Office.
The seas are still fairly warm and act like a hot water bottle around Britain, insulating us from the worst of any freeze. But conditions across much of Europe are set to become very cold, which should make for good conditions in the Alps as the new ski season gets under way.
Quite how long the outbreak of wintry conditions will last is far from certain, but there are signs that the cold spell could carry on well into the run-up to Christmas — and possibly Christmas Day itself.
Whether that signals a white Christmas is much more uncertain — it would need a clash of moist air with the cold to produce snow, and at the moment there is little sign of that. However, there is time for the forecasts to change, so it may be worth a visit to the bookies. William Hill is offering 6-1 for a white Christmas in London and 3-1 in Aberdeen.
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