For a week, it looked as if Afghanistan’s presidential election was back on track after President Karzai’s reluctant agreement to hold a run-off with his main rival, Dr Abdullah Abdullah. Now Dr Abdullah appears to have prompted another crisis by laying out strict conditions for his participation in the second round.

He knows that President Karzai will not replace Azizullah Ludin, the head of the Independent Election Commission, or suspend three ministers. He knows that, fraud or no fraud, he is certain to lose the second round as he lacks support among Pashtuns — the biggest ethnic group.

So the key question, which he refused to answer yesterday, is what he plans to do when Mr Karzai fails to meet his conditions by Saturday. The most charitable theory is that he is taking a strong negotiating position, and will compromise. He will then lose the run-off, but earn the gratitude of the international community, become leader of the opposition and prepare for his next presidential bid.

The more popular theory is that he is preparing to withdraw altogether to deny Mr Karzai legitimate victory. He will then claim the moral high ground by blaming Mr Karzai for not meeting his demands, and still become leader of the opposition and a favourite to win next time.

One further theory is that he is trying to have the election postponed until after the winter snows. That could force Mr Karzai to step down in favour of a caretaker government pending a spring run-off.

Times Recommends

• Tehran cannot live up to its rhetoric
• The new unicycle that will ‘change the world’
• We cannot wish away Iran’s bomb