The pages of the state-controlled daily, the Herald, were stuffed today with advertisements congratulating President Mugabe on his 83rd birthday and, with no sense of irony, wishing him “many more.”

His office went one better than most, putting in two advertisements, each praising his “sublime leadership qualities.” Another depicted him as a granite statue atop a Greek temple with pillars marked “democracy,” “reconciliation”, “education,” “health,” “land reform” and “freedom fighter”.

Other sections of the paper, however, told another story. Notices from police announced unprecedented blanket bans on demonstrations and political rallies in townships where most of the capital’s poor live.

A report said the state-owned Zimbabwe Iron and Steel Company – which managed to find the several million Zimbabwe dollars for a birthday advertisement – had stopped production because it couldn’t pay for the coal needed for its blast furnaces. And the cost of the Herald had doubled to 3,000 Zimbabwe dollars - a sum that would have been 3 million before the central bank removed three zeroes from the currency six months ago.

After nearly 27 years in power, Mr Mugabe has grown a legacy of brutal repression and economic bungling that has driven inflation to 1,593 per cent. Outside the small coterie of political henchman around him, he is universally held responsible for the country’s dramatic collapse into poverty and corruption.

Despite his advanced years though, he shows no inclination to step down.

“Obviously, there will come a day when I will go,” he said cheerily in an interview on state television last night, but adding with a note of menace that “there are no vacancies” for his job.

Three years ago, he indicated that he would probably retire in 2008 when his current six-year term of office expired. But late last year he shocked Zimbabweans with his announcement that he planned to postpone next year’s scheduled elections until 2010, effectively extending his tenure by two years.

He could not stand down while his party was “in a shambles” he said, an apparent reference to the deep splits within his ruling ZANU(PF) party between rival factions fighting to be the first in line when he goes.

“The last 15 years have been littered with promises of retirement, but they’re always ambiguous,” said a Western diplomat. “You can be sure he means to be president for life.”

Party insiders describe Mr Mugabe as physically fit and trim and mentally alert. However, the accelerating collapse of the economy has made him more vulnerable than ever, as discontent among the vast majority of the population - living on barely survival rations - swells with each fresh surge in inflation.

Mr Mugabe’s ability to stamp on a looming outburst of labour unrest and the potential for a mass uprising depends on the large and well-trained army, police, paramilitary groups and state security agency.

However, these are being severely eroded by a flood of resignations from the security forces - equally devastated by the soaring cost of living as ordinary people, and crossing into neighbouring countries for work in private security companies.

Memos from the head of the police and intelligence agency, leaked and published here, have warned Mr Mugabe of an “explosion.” His response has been further repression, indicated by the ban on demonstrations announced in the Herald today.

“He’s tough and he won’t go easily,” said the Western diplomat. “But he’s like King Canute, trying to order the sea to go back. Things are happening very fast now.”

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