Robert Mugabe’s party is splintering under the impact of Zimbabwe’s catastrophic economic crisis and may remove him from office to avert a bloody political meltdown, an influential think-tank said yesterday.

Citing widespread unrest within the Government, International Crisis Group said that the situation in Harare was “reminiscent of the last stage of the last stages of Mobutu’s reign in the Congo”, a reference to the overthrow of the former dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, who fled his country in 1997 after almost three decades of corrupt and violent rule.

“Economic issues, discontent among underpaid police and troops and the increasing willingness of opposition parties and civil society to protest in the streets, all increase the risk of sudden major violence,” the Brussels-based ICG said.

The think-tank said that the realisation among the top echelon of Zanu (PF), the ruling party, that the economic crisis was destroying their own business interests, is likely to persuade them to combine to block President Mugabe’s attempt to extend his rule by two more years beyond 2008, as a first manoeuvre to shift him out of office. Mr Mugabe, 83, has been in power since independence from Britain in 1980.

The ICG published its report amid growing evidence that the security forces are struggling to prevent public disorder as shortages of food and other essential goods are exacerbated by the breakdown of the civil administration and by rampant inflation.

Yesterday the value of the currency fell to its lowest so far, crossing the rate of Z$10,000 to the US dollar.

Zimbabwe Online, an independent internet news service that has effectively taken the place of the country’s now-banned free daily press, quoted from a leaked memorandum by Augustine Chihuri, the police commissioner, announcing the cancellation of all police leave and ordering all officers to be ready for riot duty.

One of Mr Chihuri’s deputies also ordered lists of “able-bodied” officers from stations outside Harare and the second city, Bulawayo, pending their transfer to the two cities, said Zimbabwe Online.

The orders coincided with outbreaks of violence, unprecedented in the past eight years, in one of the most volatile township areas of Harare on Sunday, when antigovernment youths took control for several hours, setting up roadblocks of boulders and burning tyres. Police admitted yesterday that a group of 16 policemen in Budiriro township had been surrounded and outnumbered by a mob and escaped only by firing teargas. They were unable to make any arrests.

For the past two weeks, much of Harare has been under bans on political rallies and demonstrations similar to a state of emergency.

This week the Zimbabwean roads department, once responsible for maintaining the most extensive network of high-quality roads in the continent outside South Africa, joined the list of other national failures, in agriculture, education, health, finance, justice, local government and even sport.

The roads department used to have nine roadbuilding units. “None are in existence now,” George Mlilo, Permanent Secretary at the ministry, said. “All of the equipment has collapsed.”

Outspoken remarks by Mr Mugabe during his birthday celebrations last month revealed that he sees enemies not only among the opposition, civic and church bodies but also at the heart of Zanu (PF).

He openly railed against Joice Mujuru, the Vice-President anointed as his apparent successor two years ago, and the wife of Solomon Mujuru, a former army general and the leader of one of two of the main factions contending for the presidency when Mr Mugabe finally goes.

However, Mr Mugabe continues to manipulate party organs to ensure that he gets their support for his plan to delay presidential elections, due next year, until 2010, and so extend his rule by another two years.

1,000%

The official annual inflation rate this year — although private sector estimates put the figure much higher. In 1998 it was 32 per cent

Source: Times archives

10,000

The official exchange rate yesterday for the (revalued) Zimbabwean dollar per US dollar. In 2003 the rate was approximately 1 to 1

Source: CIA World Factbook

Times Recommends

• Henning Mankell: ‘If Wallander was alive, I wouldn’t be a friend of his’
• Secret society's skull and crossbones for sale
• Nigerian leader vanishes after medical treatment