After 27 years in power President Mugabe faces a “perfect storm” of troubles that poses the most serious threat yet to his rule. Dissent within his party, economic meltdown, a revitalised Opposition and disgruntled security forces are raising the possibility of a spontaneous popular uprising.

“It’s too early to say it’s the end, but it’s another sign the regime is cracking,” Trudy Stevenson, an opposition MP, said. Eldred Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe, said: “It’s like [Mugabe’s] Waterloo.”

Mr Mugabe has also succeeded in rupturing his own Zanu (PF) party. There had been a growing consensus among senior party figures, whose business interests are suffering, that he should go after completing his term next March. When he sought to extend his term to 2010, Zanu (PF) split. Those vying to succeed him are now “gladiating (sic) for power and control of the party”, Dr Masunungure said.

The stronger faction is led by Solomon Mujuru, a former army chief, who is promoting his wife, Joice, a woman who earned the sobriquet “Spill Blood” as a guerrilla in Zimbabwe’s war of independence in the 1970s. At December’s party conference the Mujuru faction blocked Mr Mugabe’s efforts to extend his term, and Mr Mugabe has since denounced Mrs Mujuru. Their chief rival is Emmerson Mnangagwa, 65, a former National Security Minister, who has a history of emnity with Mr Mujuru.

There appears to be growing support within Zanu (PF) for a compromise, backed by the Mujuru faction, that would allow Mr Mugabe to remain as a ceremonial head of state while power passes to a new office of prime minister. That would allow Mr Mugabe to retain his dignity and give him immunity from prosecution for the evils of his regime.

As Zanu (PF) feuds, the country’s anger deepens. Church leaders have for the first time allied themselves publicly with the opposition MDC in the Save Zimbabwe Campaign, and there are signs of rapprochement between the MDC’s rival branches led by Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara. Both men were arrested and beaten last weekend.

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