POLITICIANS inside and outside Zimbabwe are scrambling to find an exit
strategy for President Robert Mugabe amid warnings that the country is on
the brink of widespread famine.
The government admitted last week that two-thirds of its maize crop — the
country’s staple food — has been wiped out by drought. But many fear that
the brutality of the past two weeks against opposition activists is
distracting international attention from a bigger catastrophe.
“We have the world’s greatest humanitarian crisis on our hands,” said David
Coltart, an MP from the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). “We
already have the world’s lowest life expectancy and highest inflation;
imagine on top of that drought? There will be famine.”
The warning comes as Mugabe faces unprecedented international condemnation —
including criticism from other African leaders for the first time — and
opposition within his ruling party, which will meet this week to decide his
future.
The main item on the agenda of the Zanu-PF central committee on Thursday is
whether Mugabe should run again in presidential elections due next year. His
original plan to extend his mandate to 2010 was rejected at the annual party
conference in December.
Any such move will be blocked by his deputy Joyce Mujuru, wife of the former
army chief General Solomon Mujuru, who many believe is the real power in the
country and who fell out with Mugabe over December’s conference.
Sources close to the general told The Sunday Times that he will threaten to
form a breakaway party if Mugabe insists on standing again.
On Friday Joyce Mujuru held secret talks in Johannesburg with her South
African counterpart Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka in what appeared to be a warning
shot to Mugabe.
Meetings have also taken place between emissaries of Mujuru and those of
Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of one of the two MDC factions. Tsvangirai is
currently recovering from a savage attack by Mugabe’s thugs two weeks ago,
which he described as “an orgy of heavy beatings”.
The two sides have apparently been discussing forming a transitional
government to try to rescue the country from its downward economic spiral
that has
seen inflation reach 1,700%. It is predicted by the IMF to reach 4,000% by
next year.
It would not be the first time that Solomon Mujuru and Tsvangirai had met. The
pair come from the two main Shona tribes — Mujuru, like Mugabe, is a
Zezuru and Tsvangirai a Karanga — so an alliance between them could
avoid ethnic strife.
Although Tsvangirai would not ideally like to ally himself with a military
leader, he has always been anxious to avoid bloodshed. His beating, along
with that of about 50 MDC activists, has shown the lengths to which Mugabe
is prepared to go.
Despite the international outcry at the attack on Tsvangirai, repression has
worsened over the past two weeks. There are now unofficial curfews in
townships, with people being picked up and beaten at random, and lists at
borders of MDC members and journalists. The regime has instructed state
hospitals not to admit MDC victims.
One of Mugabe’s staunchest critics, Pius Ncube, the Catholic Archbishop of
Bulawayo, exhorted people not to be daunted. “I am ready to stand in front,”
he said. “We must be ready to stand, even in front of blazing guns.
Starvation stalks our land and the government does nothing.”
“This is no longer about the MDC and its political aspirations,” Coltart said.
“We’ve had a total crop write-off in the south where people were already
living on the edge.”
Zimbabwe was once the breadbasket of southern Africa, but this will be the
sixth consecutive year of food shortages since Mugabe launched his violent
programme of seizing white-owned farms. The World Food Programme is giving
food aid to 1.5m people, nearly 10% of the population.
Authorities have consistently attributed the low yields to drought. But
critics blame the farm seizures for the sharp decline in agricultural
production. Just 100 to 200 white farmers are left on their farms, compared
with 4,000 in 2000. Most farms are now in the hands of “cellphone” farmers,
ruling party cronies who coveted the farmhouses for weekend getaways and
have no real interest in farming.
But this year there is no doubt that southern Zimbabwe has suffered a severe
drought. The state television ZBC quoted Rugare Gumbo, the agriculture
minister, as admitting that crops in many areas had failed. “The dry spell
experienced this season has badly impacted on agriculture. Crops, especially
maize, in most parts of the country are a write-off,” he said.
He expected a maize harvest of just 600,000 tons — only one third of the
minimum annual requirements, and declared 2007 a drought year. With most
Zimbabweans already struggling to find one meal a day, aid workers say food
shortages will push many over the edge, particularly its 1.6m Aids orphans.
“We’re greatly concerned about the increasing pressures on families,” said
James Elder, of Unicef in Zimbabwe. “Hyperin-flation and another drought are
going to mean ever more stress on orphans as they strive to feed and educate
themselves.” Raymond Majongwe, head of the Progressive Teachers’ Union, said
recently that an average teacher’s salary of Z$200,000 (£5) a month was only
enough to buy 4Å bananas a day.
The price of fuel has almost trebled in the past week to Z$14,500 (35p) per
litre. Bus drivers in Harare now hike up their prices twice a day, forcing
some of those with jobs to quit because they can no longer afford the
transport.
It is not clear where the government would find the foreign exchange to import
food. Zambia, on which it has previously relied for maize, has announced
that it will not export any more because part of its own crop was wiped out.
“If the international community ignores this situation, the rate of economic
collapse will escalate, tension will continue to rise and there may well be bloodshed,
in fact a bloodbath,” Coltart warned.
He claimed that Mugabe’s increased use of violence was a sign of desperation.
“The attack on Morgan was clearly an own goal,” he said. “It has raised
Morgan’s profile; rather than deter people it has fuelled their momentum and
brought the two factions of the MDC together.”
He conceded that most Zimbabweans may still be too fearful and weakened by
hunger and disease to act, but suggested that desperation could force their
hand.
“I believe the regime is already a paper tiger,” he said. “The question is
when people realise that, because at that moment Mugabe is in real trouble.”
Pointing out that police salaries were way below poverty level, he
explained: “Three years ago when I was stopped at roadblocks I was treated
with hostility. Now when I’m stopped, 90% of the time the police ask me when
things are going to change.”
But whether regime change comes through street agitation or political
negotiations, the problem remains of what to do with Mugabe. Not only does
the 83-year-old president show no sign of wanting to retire but he has so
much blood on his hands that he would be fearful of being put before a UN
war crimes tribunal.
Mugabe told a meeting of the Zanu-PF Women’s League in Harare on Friday that
he had no intention of stepping down. “The opposition is always calling for
change, change, change,” he said. “I am not pink. I don’t want a pink nose.
I can’t change. I don’t want to be European. I want to be African.”
“He’s like a cornered bull,” said a diplomat in Harare. “I fear we are heading
for a dark tunnel where things will get worse before they get better.”
Both ruling party members fed up with their country’s decline and MDC leaders
are working to find some kind of exit strategy. “Personally I find it an
anathema but for the sake of saving lives we recognise we may well have to
agree some form of amnesty,” Coltart said.
Anger at ‘shrine’
The Zimbabwean government is planning to construct a grandiose monument to
Robert Mugabe, commemorating his life and achievements, writes
Christina Lamb.
The monument is to be built in his home town of Zvimba and is expected to
include a statue.
“The idea has been discussed and we are moving onto the planning stage,”
Ignatius Chombo, the local government minister, told the ZimOnline news
service.
“It would be a shrine for the local community and one that would be used to
depict the president’s life history and legacy as well as aspects of the
liberation struggle.”
Unlike other dictators Mugabe has previously eschewed any form of personality
cult.
Building a statue, while the country is in an economic crisis so severe that
hospitals have no drugs and the government had to stop issuing passports
because it could not afford the ink, is likely to provoke an outcry. The
site chosen is the size of a football pitch and there have been reports of
nearly £200,000 being made available to buy materials from Asia.
How sad and pathetic of the ANC, not general South Africans I stress, that the Zimbabwe issue is an internal matter for a sovereign state. How convenient they forget that Zimbabwe (not Zanu PF) was one of the fiercest critics of apartheid and was threatened with military action by Pic Botha on several occasions. Apartheid was fought from many fronts, it was not an internal issue. The other issue is that the ANC leaders will NEVER criticise Mugabe, whom many idolised during his`hey days. He provided sanctuary to many ANC leaders, you will recall the many bombings in the northern surburbs by South African security agents in the 80s and 90s. Get rid of the spineless Mbeki, get rid of Mugabe and those two countries will prosper.
Will Smith, Dorset,
Ian Smith! Forgive us! We were wrong after all. We didn't listen to you. Life in those days was a dream compared to what we have now. Please come back!
Shadrack Mpofu, Sydney , Australia
How can the world leaders(?) stand by and allow one person to be so harmful to fellow people!
Hey Gary, President Bush got rid of Saddam Hussein & where was the thanks he got?
Shadrack Mpofu, Sydney , Australia
I have two main questions for Mr Robert Mugabe
I understand Zimbabwe is meant to be a Christian nation and you are a well-known Christian figure as well, so why can't you empathise with all the Zimbabweans suffering now? If your stepping down is the only way for Zimbabweans still in the country and those who fled the country to survive and rebuild the nation, why can't you just do it? This is not the question of whether you as an individual would you survive, but it is the survival of millions of people whose lives have been destroyed. It is all about revamping our crumbling economy. We want the Zimbabwe we had soon after colonialism. Of course we dont want to be colonised again but there are some people who are fit enough to have a go. Give others chance will you. Am outside Zimbabwe right now to try and provide for my family. It is not easy being here. Home is the best. Please set us free. we are struggling more than the struggle faced by our ancestors during colonialism
Shadreck, Coventry, UK,
The quicker the security forces realize what is happening and stop their repression against the population, the less bloodshed there will be. Perhaps they can be made to realize that the less blood is on their hands the better will be their treatment when Mugabe goes. The people at the top of the regime need to realize that if they make it easier for Mugabe to be eased out the less bloodshed and suffering there will be and the less likelihood of their ending up at the end of a rope or worse, the more likelihood of their ending up in comfortable exile or even in their own country, out of power but still comfortable.
Whatever is done with Mugabe, it must be certain that he will never be in a position to return to power. Aside from that it is up to him: does he want to be a Smith or Marcos, or someone who went out feet first? And the rest of the world needs to act responsibly.
Christopher Hobe Morrison, Middletown, NY, USA
There is another emerging dictator who is bedfellow of Mugabe.Malawi President Bingu Mutharika.He is now using the military toclmapdown of opposiiton activities.
Thom Chiumia, Leeds,
It's actually quite sick and twisted that the rest of the world has stood by and let Mugabe run rampant for so long. You can bet if there was oil involved, he'd have been out long ago. How and why is this allowed to happen? Are we all so busy with our problems in the rest of the world? Do we not care for our fellow oppressed man?
Given the extreme suffering of so many people, I think any and all options should be on the table for removing Mugabe and all his immediate henchmen. It is a shame his supporters are as crazy and blind to their countrymen's suffering as Mugabe is. How many more dictators is the world going to allow to kill huge numbers of people? Isn't it time we as a planet grew up and had some guts and came down on them like a ton of bricks early in their sociopathic careers?
John Corry, London, UK
Oh, so the west should intervene to get rid of a tyrannical dictator?
What a crazy idea. Get outta here.
gb, Austin, USA
mugabe the total dictator,why.His people,No.His country No.The western world our Tony,No. The real shame should lie with the strongest country in the african continent,the "near" silent one.South africa.
The Mac, Juelsminde, danmark
Can we dare hope that regime change will come without a bloodbath? Dear God I hope so much that due political process can be restored without more horror, but am sceptical. The people of Zimbabwe don't deserve any more hardship. It would be good to hear more from the world-wide church, not just the oh so brave Pius Ncube!!
Sue Shaw, Morpeth, UK
Seems like another French Revolution is brewing.
Shashank, Canberra, Australia
Hey,you Brit's should have stayed out 200 years ago !Now another problem for the world to clean up.Oops,I was thinking of bush and Iraq
ron west, anchorage, usa/alaska
How can the world leaders(?) stand by and allow one person to be so harmful to fellow people!
Must be a lot more involved than what is seen to be seen?
Any religion,any where should condemn what has happened in that country.Any human that has a thought for fellow beings should be repulsed?
Why has it gone on for so long.
garry ynema, bunbury, w.a.
What a tragedy. Mugabe has turned Zimbabwe to a basket case.
olufemi ogundipe, Clovis, Fresno/ CA.
One wonders how much longer the South African government can carry on with this front called "Quiet diplomacy" covering for an old mentally ill comrade.One shudders to think what the response would be if Mugabe was white.
Russell, Durban, South Africa
It's a great pity that in this poor country has no significant oil reserves. It it had then the US would be in there like a shot in order to "save" the population and introduce democracy.
The UN is muttering like a toothless old lion but seems to be doing nothing. Negotiating with Mugabe is impossible and something needs to be done.
Jeffers, Maidstone, UK
If the proposed monument to Robert Mugabe is built, I hope it won't be long before the long-suffering people of Zimbabwe have the opportunity to tear it down. The resulting rubbble should be left in a pile where it lands as it will be an accurate representation of the legacy he has left a once proud and productive country.
Christopher Reader, Cape Town, South Africa