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Inflation is likely to bring Zimbabwe’s economy to a standstill within six months with the possible paralysis of President Mugabe’s Government and civil unrest, international aid agencies warned their staff yesterday.
The country’s plight is likely to force Mr Mugabe to introduce emergency rule, said a group representing 34 organisations, including the United Nations, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Oxfam.
The warning came as the country’s consumer watchdog reported that the cost of living for an average urban family had risen by 66 per cent last month. In April inflation stood at a record 3,700 per cent. The internal memorandum from the Heads of Agencies Contact Group is the first evidence that international organisations are taking steps to prepare for a collapse.
“The memorandum is talking about a situation where there is no functioning government or a total breakdown,” said an agency official, who asked not to be named. “It is saying it is inevitable, not just a possibility. Our head offices have to know. Not many people have experienced this kind of crisis.” The document says that inflation will continue to snowball. “Thus economic collapse is expected before the end of 2007,” it adds.
By that point the Zimbabwean currency will have become unusable and shops and services will “substantially cease to function”. This is likely to be followed by “increased unemployment with concomitantly increased crime and possible civil disturbances”.
It points out that presidential and parliamentary elections are due by the end of March next year, but adds: “If the country is unable to function, it is difficult to see how these can be held.”
The Zimbabwe Doctors for Human Rights said last week: “It can no longer be said that the health service is ‘near collapse’, It has collapsed.”
The memorandum says that member organisations are forced to pay staff weekly as price increases outstrip wages, and before long staff will have to be given daily increases. It also urges that experts with experience of places such as Iraq or Afghanistan be recruited to advise staff in Zimbabwe.
Mr Mugabe’s reaction to the deepening crisis grows increasingly bizarre.
This week he presided over the handover of 925 imported tractors, 35 combine harvesters and a range of other sophisticated equipment that cost $25 million (£12.5 million) of foreign currency. As far as it could be established, the recipients are all politicians.
“Today we are proud masters of our political and economic destinies,” he said.
In crisis
80%: unemployment
£130: GDP per capita
-4.4%: growth
39: years life expectancy
700,000: people had homes and businesses destroyed by the Government in 2005
27: years with Robert Mugabe in power
$0: funds left for the Zimbabwean Army to pay for rations
Source: Times archives; CIA
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And the band played on........
Ish Chowdhury, Setauket, USA
In support of BJ Deller, the world could not care. And they had so much to say about the Smith regime, which was extravagantly benevolent by comparison. A few hundred thousand more dead in Africa? Who cares, better to go and protest about climate change at Heathrow.
The recent Southern African conference was creepily bizarre - with all the gathered morally bankrupt leaders applauding Mugabe and the Zambian president wagging his fingers and saying "the people of Zimbabwe must not rock the boat". It was like a movie scene of Rome under Nero or Caligula. Is this the precursor to far more terrible events? And when these tragic events have played out, will those who barely protested be able to look one another in the face? Or will they just slink away - after all it's not their problem.
You British had so much to say about Smith. Why are you now so silent?
P van Eeden, London,
Whether or not Zim collapses in six months will most definetly remain debatable. My take on this issue is that, much as the country's economy has plummeted steeply in the recent months, a total collapse of the state will be determined by a myriad of other circumstances prevailing at a given time. Let us just keep watching the space!!
Ojoatre Kaaka, Gulu, Uganda
Collapse, Collapsed, Dead, Dying, Call it whatever, Zimbabwe is financially in a bad way. Hard to transform when our way of being in cynical, angry and fed up. Ok! Be aware the world for Zimbabweans and Africans throughout is governed by the system set up post WW2. That system doesnt serve us. No!! it does not, not a single bit. Not to get angry and rage about the Gross 8 ( G8) all recovering from 100's of years of War,pilage and plunder underpinned by domination of an Imperial nature, "yes its human nature Caeser" said Brutus to Caeser. Its time We All grow up and fix the mess we have created and create a possibility for the future of Africa. It ended with Zimbabwe and it will start in Zimbabwe, Exodus to Zimbabwe in 2009 will confirm the prophecy. 40 years after attaining Independence Zimbabwe as we know it will nolonger exist. It will have matured and undergoing transformation. The language used to discuss real issues about Zimbabwe in most western media lacks in vision thats why tony Blair has spun himself into a trap ( nuerotic public school kid) What type of conversation about Zimbabwe will Tony Blair have with Nelson Mandela? You know England keeps pretending to the rest of the world that their hands are clean ( hence the nuerotic parliamentary antics and the loss of Human Rights in the USA and UK.
Colonialism set up systems of governance and these grotesque financial systems still exist. England, France,Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, USA, Russia all Colonial Warlords, they have washed their hands, and have no intention of soughting it out. The Brotton Wood System only to suits themselves. Be careful with what you wash them with, remember the Sins of the father will revisit the sons for seven generations, this includes all mankind. Be responsible.
Tura, Ballygowan, Down
Mugabe must be charged with genocide as well as crimes against humanity. He was responsible for the murder of 30.000 Matabele tribesmen in the 1980s, and may others since but no one seems to be bothered. This is an insult to Africa where some countries have suffered far too much in the last 50 years. Now the next plea is going to be the giving of billions in aid to Zimbabwe, an action we most certainly should not support. They have caused the problems themselves. South Africa is also partly responsible for the current situation and so should pay their share in aid especially as Pres. Mbeki of SA supports Mugabes' thoughts that Africa is only for Africans, a state of affairs that has caused Zimbabwe's current terrible condition.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
What I find so strange is that when the country was Rhodesia and the value of the Rhodesian Dollar was nearly two US$ the British and American Governments effected a rabid campaign to destroy the Rhodesian Government, a Government led by a decorated war hero and flying ace that served the British Government in WWII. Against the backdrop of the various "Uhurus" of the decolonisation process of Africa that saw many whites brutally slaughtered, the US and UK Governments sought the same outcome for Rhodesia without the option of assistance or asylum for Rhodesian Whites, apparently intent on leaving them to the mercy of the communist terrorists that now rule Zimbabwe. Well we have seen what Robert Mugabe who was the darling of both governments of the time has dome to the country and how black people are suffering in Zim or emigrating to the UK by the tens of thousands, yet the silence from the UK and US on Mugabe is deafening - what shameful double standards, what cowardice!!!
Cynic, Salisbury , Wiltshire
Wrong predictions of imminent collapse galore in the Western over the
past few years. Simply because numerous predictions have been wrong
hitherto, future predictions are more likely to be correct (naturally).
What can be said with certainty is that the West's desire to
demonstrate (to Southern African countries) the folly of Zimbabwe's
experiment, has been thoroughly achieved. Mugabe's insistence that the
problem is a bilateral issue, between Zim and UK, seems to be water
under the bridge. For this reason Tony Blair is now happy to announce
that the solution to Zimbabwe's crisis must come from fellow Southern
Africans. Let them sort it out and see for themselves what happens when
you play with fire. Job done for Tony Blair. But for how long?
Shumba Muroori, London, UK
Twenty seven years ago, the people voted for Mugabe and his so called freedom fighters. How sad they did not realise he was to become yet another African dictator, robbing his own countrymen blind and destroying an economy over a quarter of a century of mismanagement. But what of the people in the rural areas? Their stories will only be told when he and his corrupt government are gone and then the World will learn of the true horrors of this regime.
M OXLADE, London,
This article is cheap propaganda by GB machinery....Zimbabwe will never collapse in six (6) months. I say never. If Iraq and Afghanstan do not collapse, Zim will not be near collapse. Africa and the rest of the world are finding ways of helping Zim out of their crisis. Only two nations are offended, opposed and will do all they can to broadcast bad propaganda like this. Zim is NOT collapsing!!
McCase, White River, US
There maybe dynamsim and adaptability and some top managers in the country who have defied, what a lot have done gone abroad, it will eventually come to a standstill, may it be soon than late, Intervention either from the South or aboard will see change for either the good or for worse, and then again what may happen after that is everyone's guess!
Daryll O'Connor, Sutton, United Kingdom
I don't think you can say the people 'progress' exactly...survive is the word that springs to mind, and that in itself is a miracle.
Sarah, Auckland, New Zealand
is anyone suprised???????..........
the lowest of the low was put in charge...and "it" decimated the country......
i say let it die...then civilization can move back in and turn it back into a garden.....
Max Efarstan, redmond, washington
NGOs by there very nature are a bunch of thugs. to trust what they say is to become blind to the realities on the ground. No wonder countries such as China, Russia, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Rwanda restrict their activities to pure charity or else they fold and bust. It is impossible for Zimbabwe to shut down completely in six months.
okhzo, Kampala, Uganda
I am absolutely certain that, somehow, some way, this is all the West's fault in general and George Bush's fault in particular.
FYI for the nutroots, the statement above is a little rhetorical device I like to call "sarcasm."
Rick, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Members of the British House of Lords must be happy at this "news" of imminent collapse of Zim: they will then be able to ragain the land that Mugabe took from them.
Some of the so-called white farmers were actually members of the House of Lords, who inherited the land from the colonial era.
Vincent, Moscow, Russia
tragic innit...how our president can go from being the most idolized African statesman to the most despised man in Africa.
bounter, Hayes, England
Is there any doubt that Africa was far better off when under colonial rule??
Walt, Mechburg, USA
You mean taking producing farms from people of one skin color, and giving them to people with a different skin color isn't a good idea?
Zimbabwe, the Mississippi of the world.
Okay, is Venezuela taken yet in the country collapse pool?
Brock, NYC, NY
Thank you for sharing an important perspective on Zimbabwe. Allow me a candid sharing.
Zimbabwe in my view has an amazing story to tell the world. Judging by the extremely antagonistic political or economical phenomena that surround the country, odds are being defied. Its at times inexplicably miraculous how the people progress in such an environment.
Corporate organizations in Zimbabwe are somehow managing to thrive against the highest inflationary environment in the world.Then it is undoubted that Zim has the best managers in the world who exhibit dynamism and adaptability. This is equally demonstrable in almost every sector of our country.
This is just an angle to a multi faceted view of the Zimbabwe story.
Please do a follow up on 14 Dec 2007 to review how time unfolds against the backdrop of projections
Tawanda, Harare, Zimbabwe
Long overdue
Zvazviri, Machester, UK
Well done Mugabe, you have successfully destroyed the 'bread basket of Africa'.
sian, Frankfurt, German
Surely a coup is about due...
Jon, Angelo, USA
South Africa is a beacon for Africa, Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki have done amazing things for RSA.
Why does the world tolerate Mugabe? He doesn't care about Zimbabwe. It's to our shame we allowed this despot to govern so long.
Zimbabwe is a beautiful country, may she have the gracious, law abiding, progressive government that mirrors its Southern neighbour.
Gary Jackson, London, England
Mugabes' neighbors, including South Africa, fully support his regime. As long as they do so this regime will survive.
FREDERICK VAQUER, pasadena, ca/usa-