JACOB ZUMA, the controversial South African politician accused of corruption
and rape, has gained unstoppable momentum in his quest to become the
country’s next president.
Last week’s voting by branches of the African National Congress (ANC) across
South Africa has given him a clear lead ahead of his arch rival, President
Thabo Mbeki, beating him by 2,236 votes to 1,294, and setting off a rush of
placemen and office seekers to join the Zuma bandwagon.
Mbeki has vowed to fight Zuma all the way for the party’s presidency at its
conference in Polokwane in two weeks’ time, warning ANC parliamentarians
against voting for “criminals and rapists” - seen as a clear allusion to
Zuma.
Observers say that Mbeki is in denial and simply cannot face the humiliation
that awaits him. In theory he will remain the country’s president until May
2009 but there is already talk of the triumphant Zuma forces ejecting him
from office long before then.
Zuma’s popularity at grass-roots level is undeniable - in his own province of
KwaZulu-Natal he won 599 votes to Mbeki’s nine and even in Mbeki’s province
of the Eastern Cape he won 44% of the votes.
However, the long-standing allegations of corruption against him, together
with his trial for rape - he was found not guilty but admitted having
unprotected sex with a young woman who he knew was HIV positive - have
irreparably damaged his reputation.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who last year described Zuma as “unfit” to become
president, last week declared that “the ANC must not elect someone who the
country will be ashamed of”.
Others point to Zuma’s polygamous career of 20 children with nine different
women, his lack of formal education - most of it at the hands of fellow
prisoners on Robben Island, where he spent 10 years alongside Nelson Mandela
- and conclude, in Mbeki’s words, that under Zuma the country will become “a
neo-colonial basket case”.
Widely portrayed as a leftist firebrand, Zuma is in fact a rather complex
figure. Born in 1942 in the deep Zulu countryside of Nkandla, the son of a
policeman and a domestic servant, he knew poverty and deprivation after his
father died when he was young.
Unable to continue school through lack of money, he followed his mother to
Durban where he became a “kitchen boy”, wearing the regulation white calico
shorts and polishing floors, cleaning windows and performing other chores.
He was an eager student at the political education classes laid on by the
ANC and Communist party in a scruffy building in the centre of town.
“He was lean then,” said Mathews Ngcobo, an old comrade who sat alongside him.
“He was young and brilliant. He always asked questions and the questions
showed he was bright. He would always excel and go beyond the obvious when
we were taught anything.”
Ebrahim Ebrahim, a former cellmate, said: “He has always been a likeable
person with a big laugh. He’s always cheerful. People always tended to be
around him.”
In prison Zuma was a fabulous raconteur, keeping his comrades spellbound with
stories of the Zulu wars. “He would tell stories in a very dramatic way and
he was a good singer, dancer and soccer player,” Ebrahim said.
An ANC member at 16, Zuma joined the party’s armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe
(MK), when it was formed in 1962 and was arrested the following year trying
to leave the country for military training. On his release in 1974, he
worked in the ANC underground before going into exile where he rose through
MK’s ranks after receiving military training in the Soviet Union.
When he returned to South Africa in 1990 it was with a reputation as a
fearless fighter and risk-taker, a militant communist who had learnt how to
read and write English from Harry Gwala, his mentor.
Gwala, the ANC warlord of the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands, was a ruthless killer
who dominated his area by scything down opponents not only within Chief
Buthelezi’s opposing Inkatha movement but, quite frequently, within his own
side.
On the ANC’s instruction, Zuma edged out Gwala and took over the whole of the
KwaZulu-Natal party, although this inevitably meant that he had to survive
Gwala’s attempts to kill him. Luckily for Zuma, Gwala died of old age
shortly afterwards.
To the surprise of many, Zuma showed himself to be a moderate and conciliatory
man, winning the confidence of Buthelezi and working successfully to end the
bloody civil war which had raged for more than a decade between Inkatha and
the ANC. In this he revealed himself as someone entirely comfortable within
the traditional Zulu world, joining in with Buthelezi to celebrate Shaka
Day, dressed in loincloth and leopard skins.
Zuma’s pride in his Zulu heritage lay behind his province’s monolithic support
for him as well as the “100% Zulu boy” T-shirts which, to the fury of some
ANC leaders, many of his followers wear, provoking allegations of tribalism.
It is certainly true that Zulus, South Africa’s largest ethnic group - some
27% of the population speak Zulu as their first language - feel it is high
time that another Zulu led the ANC.
However, Zuma’s appeal is far wider - he won massive majorities in the Free
State, the Northern Cape and Mpumalanga, where Zulus are either small
minorities or almost invisible.
Undoubtedly much of the Zuma vote expresses anger with Mbeki who is seen as an
opaque, cold and manipulative figure. It is universally assumed that Mbeki
is behind the long legal pursuit of Zuma on corruption charges - which has
now been going on for seven years without any conviction - as well as the
“honeytrap” which led to the rape case.
Feminists are still outraged that Zuma excused his behaviour by suggesting
that the young woman he slept with had seemed keen to seduce him and was
wearing a short skirt, as well as by his offhand admission that he showered
after sex as an anti-Aids precaution.
This still causes cartoonists to draw him with a shower mounted on his head
and has greatly contributed to depictions of him as a bumbling male
chauvinist clown.
Zuma happily admits that he is a fallible figure. He is a charming man, open
about his own faults, a keen listener. One of his key advisers, Mo Shaik, is
typical when he says: “The great thing about JZ is that he’s so inclusive.
He’s happy to admit that he doesn’t always know best, he wants to hear what
others have to say and then he works by consensus.”
However, as South Africa’s businessmen are quick to point out, that makes it
all the more worrying that Zuma’s strongest supporters are within the trade
unions and the Communist party (SACP). Will they be the key voices round the
table who form the consensus that Zuma articulates?
Zuma himself has been working hard to quieten such fears, assuring investors
that he has no wish to change current policies. The doubts remain. Business
is asking whether he would give the leaders of the SACP and the unions
leading positions in government, a move that would herald a lurch to the
left.
It is difficult to imagine Zuma ignoring the political debt that he owes them.
But so far he has merely indulged a vague populism, accepting the left’s cry
for free education and wondering aloud whether the death penalty should be
restored.
The SACP has also been at pains to state that it is not seeking any immediate
nationalisation of industry. There is nevertheless great pressure from the
left for more wealth redistribution, particularly in land expropriation,
income support for the bottom 40% of the population, and measures to force
the banks to lend more to black borrowers.
Business sees the left as economically naive, with little sense of how a
globalised economy such as South Africa’s might be affected by a market
backlash. Already the rand has weakened perceptibly on news of the
activists’ vote for Zuma.
If, as now seems likely, Zuma defeats Mbeki at Polokwane, many expect the
legal assault on him to be renewed. Zuma has left the country on
“confidential business” until December 6 - thus making it impossible for
anyone to serve a writ on him.
No one expects Mbeki to take defeat lying down: with 18 months to go before
his presidential term ends, he will have ample opportunity to place more
obstacles in Zuma’s path. Zuma’s supporters, knowing this, have begun to
suggest that the ANC must avoid having two centres of power - and that Mbeki
must be forced out sooner rather than later.
Zuma himself has been careful to make no such threats. Indeed, he seems
happiest back at Nkandla, counting his cattle and chatting with his
children. Already many unlikely figures have learnt to make the trek there
to see him. It looks as if this is going to become a well-worn path for many
more.
Listen to Zuma talk on
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