Robert Mugabe is “probably the cleverest politician in the world”, a European diplomat conceded.

A prominent opponent of the President of Zimbabwe said: “If he was a chess player he would be a grand-master, if not a world champion.”

The great fear among many of Mr Mugabe’s opponents is that the wily octogenarian may spring a propaganda coup about his future on the EU-Africa summit this week. They are concerned that he is close to clinching a deal enabling him to win reelection next March with a veneer of legitimacy - then press for an end to the international sanctions against his regime. Indeed, they believe that he would desperately like to unveil the outline of such a deal at the Lisbon summit and make Gordon Brown look churlish for boycotting the event.

Such a deal is being overseen by Thabo Mbeki, the South African President, who flew to Harare for an unexpected meeting with Mr Mugabe last Thursday.

Mr Mbeki has been mediating talks between Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF) party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change since the summer, and Zanu (PF) appears ready to offer concessions. Mr Mugabe’s critics, however, are deeply divided on whether they will be genuine or merely cunning window dressing.

For example, the two sides have already agreed a constitutional amendment that, among other things, abolishes the President's right to nominate 30 MPs and increases the number of elected seats from 120 to 210. Most of those new seats, though, would be in rural constituencies where the ruling Zanu (PF) is strongest.

Zanu (PF) appears ready to ease media restrictions, but there are few independent media voices left. It may agree to a new electoral commission, but has already appointed loyalists as key administrators. It may ease its repression of opposition leaders, but opponents claim that it is already cracking down on grassroots activists in remote areas far from the public eye. It could agree to let the four million Zimbabweans who have fled the country vote, knowing that many are illegal immigrants and that registering them would be almost impossible.

David Coltart, a prominent MDC MP, supports the talks because he thinks that the “Gorbachev factor” will kick in: if Mr Mugabe agrees to even the slightest liberalisation the process will run away from him. He also believes the Southern African Development Community, the regional grouping that instigated the talks, will insist on economic reforms that would destroy Mr Mugabe’s power of patronage.

Trudy Stevenson, another MDC MP, argues that “the economic crisis in this country is so bad that [Zanu (PF)] have to find some way forward and have no alternative but come to some form of compromise”.

Sceptics, including the British Government, counter that Mr Mugabe will either make promises that he has no intention of honouring or will concede the bare minimum required to persuade the MDC to fight the elections and to give the party the appearance of legitimacy. Once re-elected, he may even appoint a few token members of the MDC as ministers and then demand international aid and the lifting of sanctions.

One senior diplomat called Mr Mugabe a “wily bastard” who was “pulling the wool over peoples’ eyes to get through the election . . . Everyone is in such a wishful-thinking mood”.

Mike Davies, the chairman of the Combined Harare Residents’ Association, called the talks a huge diversion that was draining the MDC’s energies and causing a deep rupture with civic society groups such as his own. “Mugabe is not going to commit political suicide,” he said.

Despite Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown, most experts believe that Mr Mugabe and his party could win the presidential and parliamentary elections without rigging them too blatantly.

The MDC is demoralised, depleted and split into two opposing factions. Leading members admit privately that it is as weak as it has been since it was founded in 1999.

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