Martin Fletcher
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Robert Mugabe is “probably the cleverest politician in the world”, a European diplomat conceded.
A prominent opponent of the President of Zimbabwe said: “If he was a chess player he would be a grand-master, if not a world champion.”
The great fear among many of Mr Mugabe’s opponents is that the wily octogenarian may spring a propaganda coup about his future on the EU-Africa summit this week. They are concerned that he is close to clinching a deal enabling him to win reelection next March with a veneer of legitimacy - then press for an end to the international sanctions against his regime. Indeed, they believe that he would desperately like to unveil the outline of such a deal at the Lisbon summit and make Gordon Brown look churlish for boycotting the event.
Such a deal is being overseen by Thabo Mbeki, the South African President, who flew to Harare for an unexpected meeting with Mr Mugabe last Thursday.
Mr Mbeki has been mediating talks between Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF) party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change since the summer, and Zanu (PF) appears ready to offer concessions. Mr Mugabe’s critics, however, are deeply divided on whether they will be genuine or merely cunning window dressing.
For example, the two sides have already agreed a constitutional amendment that, among other things, abolishes the President's right to nominate 30 MPs and increases the number of elected seats from 120 to 210. Most of those new seats, though, would be in rural constituencies where the ruling Zanu (PF) is strongest.
Zanu (PF) appears ready to ease media restrictions, but there are few independent media voices left. It may agree to a new electoral commission, but has already appointed loyalists as key administrators. It may ease its repression of opposition leaders, but opponents claim that it is already cracking down on grassroots activists in remote areas far from the public eye. It could agree to let the four million Zimbabweans who have fled the country vote, knowing that many are illegal immigrants and that registering them would be almost impossible.
David Coltart, a prominent MDC MP, supports the talks because he thinks that the “Gorbachev factor” will kick in: if Mr Mugabe agrees to even the slightest liberalisation the process will run away from him. He also believes the Southern African Development Community, the regional grouping that instigated the talks, will insist on economic reforms that would destroy Mr Mugabe’s power of patronage.
Trudy Stevenson, another MDC MP, argues that “the economic crisis in this country is so bad that [Zanu (PF)] have to find some way forward and have no alternative but come to some form of compromise”.
Sceptics, including the British Government, counter that Mr Mugabe will either make promises that he has no intention of honouring or will concede the bare minimum required to persuade the MDC to fight the elections and to give the party the appearance of legitimacy. Once re-elected, he may even appoint a few token members of the MDC as ministers and then demand international aid and the lifting of sanctions.
One senior diplomat called Mr Mugabe a “wily bastard” who was “pulling the wool over peoples’ eyes to get through the election . . . Everyone is in such a wishful-thinking mood”.
Mike Davies, the chairman of the Combined Harare Residents’ Association, called the talks a huge diversion that was draining the MDC’s energies and causing a deep rupture with civic society groups such as his own. “Mugabe is not going to commit political suicide,” he said.
Despite Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown, most experts believe that Mr Mugabe and his party could win the presidential and parliamentary elections without rigging them too blatantly.
The MDC is demoralised, depleted and split into two opposing factions. Leading members admit privately that it is as weak as it has been since it was founded in 1999.
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Munashe says I don't accept 'revolution' in Africa. I wish for nothing but - as long as it's going forward, not the reverse like Zimbabwe! His enthusiasm for Zuma, the likely new President of South Africa, is scary. He claims Zuma to be part of a 'new breed of revolutionalists' ruling Africa.
Does Munashe take any notice of this man's reputation and intellect or finds it easier to blame this, also, on the 'white' press and perception of our desire to demonise any black person in charge?
Zuma was 'cleared' on a rape charge. His excuse for sexually abusing the HIV positive girl was 'she asked for it as she wore a skirt and sat with her legs uncrossed as she faced him'. To top it all, the former Health Minister, after having sex, took a shower and honestly believed that by using soap and water he eliminated the risk of catching HIV/AIDS. This undid years of hard work by AIDS prevention activists.
I feel sick at the thought of this 'modern man' (or vile perfert) as President
LT, Warminster, UK
I know some like LT, Warminster, UK have never bothered to bring about and accept some hypothesis on the new wave of colonialism. Think about situation in South Africa where Mandela now is the icon of the world. When a new breed of revolutionalists in the form of Zuma go up front hoping to lead a new revolution in South Africa they are rubished, demonised etc. The truth is Mandela checkened out perhaps he is the one who knows the secrete of having a black face under white control to lead the nation. And ofcourse there is a campaign to honour him, praise him etc.His fellow Africans in South Africa are just mislead by his suffering in Jail.One day you will prove me right, without economic endependence you are doomed to collapse.To be honest blessed are those who suffere while sitting on what is theirs.Porverty on Black South Africans is being ignored. In Cape Tow they stay in Khayelitsha, in J'burg you know. It will be too late if they sit back now. Diamond, Gold being milked away.
Munashe, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Give me a break - PLEASE - Mugabe supporters - however loathsome this deluded old fool is, I hate to flatter him, by thinking I worry about him You all have an immense chip on your shoulders thinking we are bothered about Colonialism where, in fact, that doesn't bother us at al. Our concerns lay with HUMAN BEINGS being treated like animals or less! The silence of Phiri and his ilk when it comes to Human rights of HIS COUNTRYMEN is deafening.
Why on earth do you believe we want the responsibiltity of looking after yet another failed African State governed by another African despot? Don't you think we would very much prefer all African citizens to be happy, content, nourished and healthy? The problem is, Zimbabwe, under
Mugabe, is a disaster zone and, say what you like, but we happen to care for the people - never mind the politics/economics etc. as, even if we wanted to get involved, (which we don't), that has already been nicely ruined by the Mugabe and his thugs
LT, Warminster, UK
The constitution is the legal parameter that governs a country and safeguards the rights of every citizen. Mugabe and ZANU PF have abused Zimbabwe's constituiton, tried to amend it many times retrospective to actions that where unconstitutional, and have by that definition committed human rights abuses. Mugabe is clever in that he has learned to call the bluff of opposing politicians, is seen to give a little when in a difficult situation, but like a man fighting for his life, there are no rules as to how he fights, which his opponents are slow to learn. So he continues to dupe those who think there are rules of etiquette or chivalry. It is like a boxing match with no referee when one participant is armed with a knife and uses it regularly. If the truly democratic countries want to out-manouvre Mugabe, then they must match their fight to his survival tactics. Pathetic excuses of racial inequalities do not condone deliberate and continued abuse of basic constitutional rights.
Euro-Zimbabwean, Biloela, Australia
please give Mr mugabe a break; we all know that he's a victim of an economic warfare against Afrika. The war in congo is over, the multinationals are doing what their want in term of looting raw material. Leave him alone, he's not a puppet , a toy like Museveni or Mobutu and Mandela.
Kakudji bab, brooklyn, USA/ New york
The imperialist have for so long enjoyed the patronage of Africa's puppet governments but now Mugabe tries to makes the difference and they are now whining.
Jonathan, London, UK
Gordon Brown has right to do what he believes is right for him to attend AFRICA-EU summit,or not.but
it's clear that he has lost his inherited war against Mugabe...and his well funded party in Zimbabwe is becaming very weak day after day, behaving like a dog chasing a car.
i have always belived that the zimbabwe situation is never been about human right issue,it's ABOUT COLONIAL injustices and ENGLAND is much more involved because what it believed that european population of Zimbabwe is an extension of it' population.
nduwayo, thswane, south africa
So we have a Friends, Romans and countryman stage setting where one of the wickedest wiliest of this particular generation of elderly African despots is coming to the end of his reign.
What does the great man of Africa, Nelson Mandela think of his next door neighbour? I wonder!!
Is there a competition in Africa to see who can be the cruelest cleverest despot , is this how they will record their history? Will Mugabe be part of African Folklore, where people sob and hide their faces when these stories are repeated to them. Will the humanitarian cruelty have been shrugged off as a problem the European started? This has always been an excuse , and before the European, who were the battles fought against?
Their tribal squabbles will carry on in perpetuity. There is really no hope to those who are intellectually redundant who pretend to be leaders in Africa.
maggawags, weymouth, Dorset uk
The issue is about principle. Africans would rather have inflation on land they own, than live well as slaves- especially on their own motherland. Simple. And Mugabe knows that very well.
Dhoh Hodho, Harare, Zimbabwe
I don't know what you guys want. So you think you are better placed than Zimbabweans to resolve those problems? No you are not honest. Surely there is something behind all this. Perhaps that is why most Zimbabweans are now begining to strongly stand by Mugabe. Yes the truth is they are. Don't be fooled by the few people who are in Harare and Bulawayo. Mugabe's strength is in the rural areas. If you pretend that Mugabe has lost support then you need to go rural and see for yourself. If a person can walk 30km just to attend a ZANU PF meeting then surely there can't be any loyalty as such. My Question is why not give the talks a chance if it is your real wish to have problems resolved. If the MDC reject talks surely we will spit them out because it will show confusion. They don't seem to have even the basics of strategy. Poor Tsvangirai should know that elections are won in Zimbabwe not in Britain. We are tired of Tvsangirai's lack of vision. How can it take you 10yrs Mr?
Munashe, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
I have only two points to make;
1,I do not believe Mugabe is the cleverest politicina in the world.I believe he is being challenged by the dumbest politicians in the world.Just check out recent events in Zimbabwe's biggest opposition party and you will see what I am talking about.
2,While Mugabe is the head of state,just like the Queen of UK,people must accept that Zimbabwe's political systems and processes are crafted in a parliament that includes a large proportion of opposition members.
If one chooses to ignore these facts,one will find themselves making statements such as 'Mugabe is probably the cleverest politician in the world'.
Alton Hadzisa, Wallington, UK