Hannah Strange
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South Africans woke to a new era of political turbulence today after the controversial Jacob Zuma seized control of the ruling African National Congress in a bitter power struggle with his rival Thabo Mbeki, the State President.
Images of a jubilant Mr Zuma embracing Mr Mbeki after the dramatic triumph last night dominated South Africa’s front pages this morning. But the show of friendship belied the acrimony that has festered between the pair since the President dismissed Mr Zuma as his deputy in 2005, resulting in the most divisive leadership contest the normally united ANC has ever seen.
“Zunami rules,” the front page headline of The Sowetan proclaimed, warning of “a new and uncertain political era ... that throws uncertainty on the presidency of the country”.
Others mocked Mr Mbeki, noting that his humiliating defeat had left him a “lame-duck president” whose power would undoubtedly be challenged by Mr Zuma, the leader of the most influential political organisation in the country.
Karima Brown, political editor of Business Day, wrote that Mr Mbeki woke up today “a man without a political party”.
She continued: “The African National Congress he has served all his life is a party whose nature changed irreversibly last night as it dumped him for his nemesis.
“The victory means that while Zuma will hold sway at party headquarters at Luthuli House, Johannesburg, Mbeki will continue to run the country from the Union Buildings, raising the prospect of a power struggle pitting party against state,” she said.
As well as Mr Zuma’s victory, the election also propelled five of his lieutenants to top positions within the ANC in a vote that the Pretoria News described as a “pummelling” and a “total rejection” of the old leadership.
“The election of Zuma loyalists is expected to tilt the ANC to the left of what is considered Mbeki’s centrist Government,” the paper said.
His camp is expected to demand considerable influence on government policy, particularly on the economy, crime, Zimbabwe and Aids, matters on which Mr Zuma and Mr Mbeki are in fundamental disagreement.
Observers now anticipate a period of relative quiet as the two camps try to reach an accommodation over the future direction of the Government.
Mr Mbeki is due to stand down as President in 2009 in accordance with the constitution and a deal is likely to be negotiated to allow him to go with dignity. However, if he were to attempt to continue dictating policy without consulting Mr Zuma, the ANC leader may well force an early election.
Mr Zuma’s ascendancy to the highest office is not yet assured. Since his dismissal in 2005, he has fought off charges of rape and graft, and could yet be brought to trial over his alleged role in an arms corruption scandal involving BAE, a case in which he has threatened to implicate Mr Mbeki.
The uneducated former revolutionary has also been widely ridiculed for claiming during his rape trial that he showered after sex with his HIV-positive accuser in order to avoid infection.
Support for Mr Zuma could fragment after his victory, as he is deserted by those who voted for him simply to clip the wings of Mr Mbeki, perceived by many as arrogant and unresponsive to the needs of ordinary South Africans.
But with the ANC determined to re-establish a united front after the embarrassingly public and often dirty battle between the rival camps, it is unlikely that another candidate will emerge to challenge Mr Zuma, unless he is in his political death throes.
Aziz Pahad, the Deputy Foreign Minister and one of Mr Mbeki’s closest allies, issued a plea for the party to come together after the vote.
“All of us in the ANC, irrespective of who we voted for, must all rally behind the leadership because you cannot solve any of the country’s problems without a united ANC," he said.
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