Jacob Zuma has pulled off one of the most stunning comebacks in political history to become leader of South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC), but the path to the country's presidency is still scattered with hazards.

Most importantly, Mr Zuma, 65, could soon face fresh corruption charges over the role he played in a multibillion pound arms scandal – the issue over which President Thabo Mbeki dismissed him as South Africa's Deputy President in 2005.

State prosecutors, buoyed by recent appeal court decisions allowing them to present new evidence, have indicated that they are close to bringing a new and much stronger case.

Mr Zuma has taken the issue to the Constitutional Court, alleging that the dawn raids on his home and lawyers' offices in which documents were seized infringed his rights to privacy. If the court decides against him, he could soon be recharged.

That alone could make it difficult for the ANC to name his as candidate in the next presidential election, due in 2009 but now possibly much earlier.

The ANC's candidate is certain to win, given the party's total political dominance in the country only 13 years after the end of apartheid. Mr Zuma has also said that he would resign if a court ever found him guilty.

The grass-roots rebellion which saw Mr Mbeki and his closest allies toppled from the party leadership has unleashed forces in the once-monolithic ANC, where the leadership always got its way. Even the populist Mr Zuma may find it difficult to control those forces.

“There are two camps in the ANC – anti-Mbeki and pro-Zuma. They are not always the same,” said a political analyst, adding that there is nothing in the ANC constitution which says that the party president has to be the ANC's presidential candidate.

“Yesterday's vote marked a watershed in ANC history – the party is evolving from a liberation movement to a real political party. There is no reason why that can't now go a step further, particularly if Zuma looks like costing the party votes,” he added.

Other candidates within the ANC will not emerge unless Mr Zuma, who is currently the most powerful ANC leader since Nelson Mandela, is mortally wounded. However, there is no shortage of people waiting in the wings should he trip up and many of them are much more acceptable to mainstream non-ANC South Africans.

How Mr Zuma now conducts himself and crucially the deal he strikes with Mr Mbeki, whose pride will not allow him to remain a lame-duck president, will play a huge role in determining whether he realises a life-long ambition and become South Africa's third black president.

A series of policy gaffes or embarrassing statements - such as that gays should not be tolerated in African society - could convince many that he should go no further. A failure to deliver to some of his constituencies, which include wealthy businessmen, left-wing unionists, and traditional villagers, could also count against him.

“Once you let the democratic genie out of the bottle it is difficult to control ... This election has been insufficient and stifled, but even the limited democratic space it has opened is a step forward. Zuma will almost certainly face tougher scrutiny and more urgent demands to deliver,” said William Gumede, the author of a book on Mr Mbeki.

For all these reasons and whatever is said to the contrary, Mr Zuma is likely to push earlier than planned for elections which will give him presidential immunity from prosecution. The trick will be to provide a Mr Mbeki a dignified exit from the political stage he once dominated.

Times Recommends

• Tehran cannot live up to its rhetoric
• The new unicycle that will ‘change the world’
• We cannot wish away Iran’s bomb