The large crowd, high after a long day of drinking free mnazi (coconut alcohol), buzzed with excitement as the helicopter circled once above the rutted football pitch before sweeping in to land.

Delirious villagers surged forward as they glimpsed the outline of Raila Odinga, Kenya’s most controversial politician, jump from the cockpit and plunge in to a mob of adoring supporters in this dirt-poor village.

Mr Odinga, a veteran firebrand, has a spring in his step. After years in opposition, the kingmaker of Kenyan politics believes he is about to seize the crown himself in tomorrow’s poll — a prospect unimaginable only a few years ago. Final opinion polls give the flamboyant 62-year-old, scion of one of Kenya’s biggest political dynasties, a slight edge over the incumbent, President Kibaki.

“I have a lot of confidence the people of this country will vote for change,” he said after attending Christmas Mass yesterday in the capital Nairobi. Mr Kibaki, 76, was elected in a landmark poll in 2002, a victory that many argue was delivered by Mr Odinga’s decision to stand aside and not split the Opposition. In return, Mr Kibaki said that he would serve a one-term presidency, but changed his mind a few months ago.

Despite five years of economic growth, Mr Kibaki — who is known for his hands-off approach to government — finds himself in a much tougher battle than expected for a second term. “Everybody can see the work I have done in the past five years,” he told his final rally.

The problem is that they cannot. Many ordinary Kenyans, particularly in poor rural areas, have seen no changes for the better under his presidency.

Mr Odinga, who has focused on corruption and cronyism, has built up a powerful coalition of parties representing tribes and groups which feel marginalized by “Kikuyu rule”.

The vote now promises to be the closest in Kenya’s history.

Mr Odinga’s backers say that he is the only politician in Kenya who represents real change. He has the drive and determination to break up the old elite that has dominated politics since independence in 1963, when Jomo Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, who led the fight against British colonial rule, took office.

Many young Kenyans, who make up a large percentage of the 14.3 million registered voters, support Mr Odinga despite the tribal affiliations of their parents.

In this impoverished coastal fishing village Mr Odinga is among friends. “Kibaki dresses himself in the colours of Kenya but underneath he is a tribalist,” Mr Odinga bellows to loud applause.

He wipes an imaginary piece of paper across his backside. “That’s what Kibaki did to our last agreement,” he says to laughter.

The vote will still be strongly influenced by tribal loyalties but is more complicated than in previous elections because of a new division between “haves” and “have-nots” and a large number of young first-time voters.

It could also be one of the most violent. At least 70 people have been killed and hundreds made homeless in election-related violence since the campaign officially began about four weeks ago. On Sunday, rival groups clashed in Nairobi after the two main candidates held huge final rallies.

Pro-Kibaki Kenyans are fearful of Mr Odinga’s street-brawling image, polished by an apparent willingness to call out thugs from the sprawling Kibera slum that forms the heart of his Nairobi constituency. They say that his links to a failed 1982 coup attempt, for which he was jailed for eight years, were never adequately explained.

Heads of state

— Jomo Kenyatta became head of state after independence in 1963

— At his death in 1978, Daniel Moi, his Vice-President, took over

— Constitution was changed in 1982 to make Kenya a one-party state

— This was repealed by Parliament in December 1991

— Mr Moi reelected in 1992 and 1997 amid claims of vote rigging

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