Nick Wadhams
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As violence tortures Kenya, one avenue open to Raila Odinga, the opposition candidate, is to use his party’s newfound power in Parliament to obstruct President Kibaki or even oust him with a no-confidence vote.
Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement won 95 seats in Kenya’s Parliament, which has 210 seats. Joined by politicians from other opposition parties, he and his allies will probably have a strong majority with which to block Mr Kibaki.
The possibility of a no-confidence vote in Parliament could allow Mr Odinga to take steps to ease the tensions that have led to violence across Kenya as his supporters vent their rage at an election that was largely seen as rigged.
If a no-confidence vote were successful, Parliament could then force a reelection, which could remove Mr Kibaki from office.
So far Mr Odinga has refused to talk to Mr Kibaki, and says that he is the legitimate President of Kenya. However, when asked about a vote of no confidence in Parliament, he was not ready to commit himself.
His supporters say that a vote of no confidence is an option. “You can see the number of lawmakers we have. How is Kibaki going to fight in Parliament, how he is going to pass his Bills?” said Ali Warindu, a resident of the Kibera slum in Nairobi, an Odinga stronghold. “A vote of no confidence will be there.”
Yet Mr Warindu, like Mr Odinga, says he does not think that should be an option right now. He fears that Mr Kibaki will coopt the Opposition by appointing several of its members to his Cabinet. Once that happens, they will refuse to back Mr Odinga.
The no-confidence vote could, however, be the only option for avoiding bloodshed. Kalonzo Musyoka, the third-placed candidate, has sought to portray himself as a possible peacemaker in this election. He wants Parliament to convene so that a confidence vote can take place. “That would be a tremendous improvement on the current situation because that’s one way of forcing a reelection,” he said.
One option already discounted by Mr Odinga is to seek legal redress. Kenya’s legal system is packed with Kibaki loyalists, with the power to sabotage a move to impeach the President. Mwalimu Mati, a political activist and anticorruption campaigner, said: “Everybody is saying, ‘Go to court’, but what I really fear is that I will learn the true nature of our judiciary. It was really one man swearing in himself and using his presidential appointees to do it. That’s the scary bit - our institutions have failed us.”
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