Raila Odinga does not just believe that he was robbed of victory in last week’s Kenyan presidential elections, but that once again he, his family and his tribe have been unjustly kept out of power by the country’s political elite.

If sheer ambition and ruthlessness were enough to get a politician elected president of Kenya, then Mr Odinga would already have been sworn in.

Over the last 25 years, the East German-educated engineer turned politician has made and broken pacts with every major political party and leader, gone to jail for six years for involvement in a coup attempt and been forced into exile abroad. He is now battling to save what he believes was his rightful victory at the polls and probably his best chance to become head of state.

The colourful leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could not be more different from his rival, President Mwai Kibaki.

Kibaki was sworn in for a second term on Sunday, triggering widespread violence across the country much of it directed towards his fellow Kikuyu tribesmen.

While the ailing 75 year old incumbent has kept a low public profile, Mr Odinga, 62, has been campaigning across the country in his trademark red Hummer promising to revitalise Kenya’s crumbling infrastructure and stamp out rampant corruption.

It was widely believed that he would win the election against Mr Kibaki, a former ally who owed his first victory back in 2002 to Mr Odinga’s support.

But behind the passion of the battle between these two men lies Mr Odinga’s turbulent political history.

His father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was a hero of the independence struggle against Britain. But he failed in his ambition to become Kenya’s first president, instead serving as vice president to Jomo Kenyatta, the country’s founding father.

In 1982 Raila Odinga was accused of plotting a coup attempt against the then President Daniel Arap Moi and was sentenced to six years in prison. He has since admitted backing the failed attempt.

After exile in Norway, he returned to Kenya to join his father’s party. On his father’s death he failed to win a leadership contest and launched his own political movement.

He then allied himself to the ruling Kanu party, but was passed over for leadership by the son of his father’s old rival, Uhuru Kenyatta.

Thrown into opposition he then supported Mr Kibaki in his successful presidential bid in 2002. But pre-election agreements about sharing power fell apart and Mr Odinga once again found himself in opposition.

“This winner take all attitude in Kenyan politics is not a sensible way to run a country,” said Sir Edward Clay, the former British High Commissioner to Nairobi. “It leads to ethnic tensions and the feeling that each major group should have its turn to eat.”

That is precisely the mood among Mr Odinga’s supporters in the Luo tribe and others who feel that the ruling Kikuyus are abusing their power.

“People have seen their nascent democracy shackled, strangled and finally killed,” said Mr Odinga. “Stopping this is not in the hands of the ODM, this violence can be stopped immediately when Kibaki steps down. I am elected president of the republic of Kenya.”

Mr Odinga’s stubbornness and the pent-up frustration of his followers may be understandable, but the violence that threatens to trigger an ethnic war could destroy the very country that he claims to want to protect.

As Macharia Gaitho, a columnist in the Daily Nation newspaper put it, now is the time for Mr Odinga to show whether he is a statesman or just another politician trying to get his hands on power.

“Nobody right now is better placed than Mr Odinga and his key ODM lieutenants... to do what the government is unable to do - save the country from total destruction and President Kibabki’s people from the threat of genocide,” he wrote.

“If their intervention can restore a peace the government is unable to, that will be the real demonstration of who has the people’s mandate.”

That decision could mean Mr Odinga returning to the opposition once more and fighting his adversary in Parliament, where he enjoys a commanding majority. But it would also mean for now putting aside a dream that he, his father and his followers have waited so long to realise.

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