Jonathan Clayton, Africa Correspondent, and Philippe Naughton
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Intensive diplomatic efforts were under way tonight to secure a face-saving exit for Mr Mugabe after 28 years as President of Zimbabwe amid increasing signs he was about to step down from power.
His closest cohorts informed him last night that he had failed to win an outright victory in the country’s weekend presidential poll.
Despite tampering with the results from the countrywide elections, the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission was set to announce that the main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, had taken 48 per cent of the vote, against 42 per cent for the 84-year-old incumbent.
The two men would therefore have to face a run-off poll in three weeks' time that Mr Mugabe has no hope of winning. "He considers this to be a huge insult, he is a proud man and needs an exit strategy," said a source close to the talks.
South Africa was leading the behind-the-scenes negotiations centring on a power-sharing deal that would see Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF), which has ruled the country for 28 years, taking a vice-presidential slot.
Such a deal would also ensure that Mr Mugabe retained immunity from prosecution for any crimes committed in his authoritarian rule. "It is over for Mugabe. No one is now talking about him staying on, just somehow finding a graceful exit," the source added.
But a spokesman for Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) denied that there were any negotiations going on. “I can confirm that there are no talks with Mugabe,” he said.
Observers doubt whether Mr Mugabe received 42 per cent of the vote but say even the biased electoral commission could not realistically swing any more votes his way. In addition, the veteran politician is aware that he would get trounced in any run-off poll.
Three days after the country's most important elections since independence in 1980, Mr Mugabe's Zanu (PF) party also appears to have lost control of parliament to the MDC.
The New York Times reported today that Mr Tsvangirai had been negotiating with Mr Mugabe's aides on a handover of power that would avoid the need for a second-round vote that would be "demeaning" to the veteran President.
The newspaper pinned its report on what it said would be a "stunning turnabout" on a Western diplomatic source and on John Makumbe, a political analyst. "The chiefs of staff are talking to Morgan and are trying to put into place transitional structures," Mr Makumbe said.
Mr Tsvangirai was expected to hold a much-delayed news conference later today.
In the absence of any clear news, tensions were continuing to rise. Riot police in armoured carriers patrolled two of Harare’s townships overnight and residents were told to stay off the normally bustling streets.
Results have been declared in only 131 of the 210 parliamentary constituencies. Zanu (PF) has a narrow lead of two seats over the MDC. A breakaway opposition party took a further five seats.
The Zimbabwean Electoral Commission insisted today that it would not be rushed, despite international pressure from Europe and the United States, and explained the delay in announcing the results on the complicated nature of the elections.
An independent monitoring group, the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, said that its projections gave Mr Tsvangirai 49.4 per cent, against 41.8 per cent for Mr Mugabe and 8.2 per cent for Mr Makoni – which was broadly in line with the Zanu (PF) predictions.
Marwick Khumalo, head of an observer group from the Pan-African parliament, said that the elections themselves were free, fair and credible overall and yesterday the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) observer team also endorsed the polls.
"The ACP election observer mission was particularly impressed by the calm and peaceful atmosphere that prevailed before, during and immediately after polling day," the state-owned Herald newspaper quoted the ACP as saying.
Opposition activists have been clinging to the fact that results have been posted immediately outside local polling stations, saying that would make it more difficult for Mr Mugabe to rig the election – although they complain of up to a million ghost voters.
It is virtually impossible, however, for any organisation reliably to collate the information from all 9,100 polling stations, including some in the north that have been cut off by flooding, except for the Electoral Commission.
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Mugabe killed thousands of the Ndebele people in his ethnic cleansing bead of the 80s. Nothing was done or said then only when he touched the white community do I hear some talk. Does he deserve mercy because those innocents he killed with impunity are less known to us?
Josh Mentjes, Maddington, Australia
If Mugabe is given diplomatic immunity, there is only one way he can pay for his terrible sins.
He should be hauled before the International Court for genocide. The example will be there for the rest of the world to see that crime while at the top does not pay. He murdered about 25.000 Ndbele tribesmen in the early 1980s and the world does nothing.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
WOW! My father and mother are Zimbabwean born South Africans and this is amazing if Mugabe is indeed stepping down!
I think the people of Zimbabwe deserve a great deal of applause for doing this despite all of the gerrymandering and intimidation games done on behalf of Mugabe's government!
Josh, Orange County,, California, USA
Lars, Oslo, Norway
What planet are you on? Mugabe inherited the breadbasket, and turned it into a basket case. He created nothing other than hunger, pain, anger and the loss of a huge proportion of his peoples who couldn't take his rule.
Safe to assume your message is an April Fool's joke?
Rod Baker, Cape Town, South Africa
Let us hope the farmers have their land returned and they can begin feeding their people once again.
Paul Davis, York, uk
While it is a glorious day that the dictator Mugabe has be humiliated, we must sit back and be patiently objective. Far too many times in post-colonial history has a supposed "savior" emerged and deposed a tyrant, only to become worse than his predecessor.
The people of Zimbabwe are an amazing people, and I can only pray that Mr. Tsvangirai enacts a truly liberal regime, where the Zimbabwean people truly have a chance to fulfill their potential. We can only wait and see.
Scott, Denver, USA
Long live Mugabe! He was the reason why Zimbabwe was the breadbasket of Africa in the first place. Mr. Mugabe is a great African and a great man in Zimbabwean history!
Lars, oslo, norway
This is a clue why people should understand that the recenet elections were not free and fair. It will be difficult for outsiders to understand about Zimbabwe election system. Mugabe's ruling party has a sophisticated way of rigging elections. The system is planned well ahead of elections maybe even 3years before elections. The rigging sysytem includes the additional of ghost voters on the voters roll, additional of polling stations in rural areas moreover right on the door step of the rural in rural areas where the ruling party has instilled fear in people whereas in town, the polling stations are far away from the voters. The ruling party deployed all prominent voters such as teachers to work in polling stations where they are away from polling stations they have been registered to vote thereby denying them exercising their vote. As a result all the teachers did not vote in these past elections. Voters names were shifted from one polling station to another to confuse them. + + +
Tala, Norton, Zimbabwe
Whichever version of the percentages is nearer the truth this is clearly no runaway landslide for MDC and there is the danger that there will be many angry, armed and dispossessed people in all camps.
If, as most democrats hope, MDC emerge the victors then the Commonwealth should waste no time in welcoming Zimbabwe back on board and offer all possible assistance in reconstruction and reconciliation amongst all the peoples of the country, including the remaining courageous white farmers, who seem to have been much abused and maligned.
A Commonwealth-led commission should be set up to guarantee the security of those that remain and to negotiate new principles agreeable to all parties governing land ownership, compensation and redistribution.
Gordon Alexander, Frome, UK
It would be fantastic to see Zimbabwe stabilised and ultimately back as the bread basket of Africa. But this will take a long time and I'm unsure how single-minded the new regime (if it takes its rightful place) is committed to the ideal. The big question is are they in it for the long term, or is this going to be treated as just another opportunity to enrich oneself. I sincerely hope it's the former.
matthew, London, London
Hapiness to the people is about to come!
The Zimbabweans deserve that.
Long life Zimbabwe, Long life Tibet
Antonio Costa, Fig Vinhos, Portugal
Abraham Lincoln was not part of a terrorist group, Nelson Mandela had a history before his release that he would not be proud of.
Seamus, Belfast, Northern Ireland
You have insulted Mandela and Tutu by including Annan. He will not be remembered with those leaders.
ME Lane, New York, NY
To Stephen in Maidstone:
Unfortunately, Africa has produced many, many more Mugabes than Mandelas. You could even argue that Mandela and Tutu were one-off exceptions. Sad, really.
Chris, London,
Stephen Russell, you cannot put Archbishop Tutu and Kofi Annan
on the same level as Nelson Mandela.
There has never been an African statesman of Mandela's standing to date. You can put Mandela on the same level as Abraham Lincoln who abolished slavery in America.
V Tan, London,
UDI was illegal? Perhaps, but then so was the American Declaration of Independance. Where were the average Rhodesians supposed to go? Back to England? "Back" to a land they and their fathers and grandfathers in most cases hadn't been born in and never knew? Rhodesians built a wonderful country, and the average Shona and Ndebele of that country were a whole lot better off under that republic than they ever were under Robert Mugabe. He and his Marxist ZANU-PF reduced inherited a marvelous country and then litterally reduced it to "Zimbabwe"; a pile of rocks. Rhodesia exists now only in my memory, and soon there will be none of us left to even remember her. The MDC can only be better for the people of Zimbabwe, and my prayers and best wishes are for Morgan Tsvangirai and his party. What a hard road they have to travel, but at least it seems that now they will be able to begin the journey.
Evan, Portsmouth, New Hampshire, USA
Mugabe must go now or else Zimbabwe will close.The situation is desperate for all Zimbabweans.We all thought that this is the time considering that this is all in our power to do to show Mr MMugabe the way out of the Sate House.His friends like Fidel Castro are off the show.If he rigs then we are all gone.
Maybe Zimbabweans need international support.Zimbawe is accountable to her people,the region and the world.We are not leaving in isolation of others.Mugabe's rhetoric of recolonisation by the West is a gimmic which my fellow Zimbabweans believe in.
Mugabe must go peacefully and go NOW!!!!!!!!!
Tino, Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe
Now is the last chance for the South African President to stand up for his fellow africans in Zimbabwe and tell Mugabe it is time to go.
If he doesn't do so then I will have wasted my support all those years ago against Apartheid. Mugabe has proved to be just another power hungry politician willing to subjugate and steal from his own people. If he had been white I expect South Africa would have acted long ago against such a despot.
Is Africa no longer capable of producing statesmen such as Nelson Mandela, Archbishop Tutu and Kofi Annan?
Stephen Russell, Maidstone, UK
African leaders have always been relactant to lean from past experiences and mistakes. Manipulating elaction results has always been a calture to incumbunt African leaders, hopeful this time Comrade Mugabe wont allow what happened in Kenyan recently recurs in Zimbabwe.
Kiyombe , Kinshasa, DRC Congo
Well I believe Zimbabwe very temporarily reverted to British sovereignty during the transition to independence. However I agree the article seems to make complete abstraction of Ian Smith's UDI
Thomas, London,
The results of this election have been known since Saturday night or early Sunday morning. As early as Sunday morning information sourced from a family member of the Zimbabwe intelligence services reached me that Mugabe and his party have lost heavily.
The intelligence services operative who leaked this information was one of those tasked to be present as the counting took place. He added that none of the electoral commission members had the courage to announce the results as they were so heavily against Mugabe and his party.
Additional information not reaching British news is that Mugabe's security minister was caught at the weekend with boxes of pre-filled ballot papers and was briefly arrested. Another of Mugabe's ministers who lost in his constituency shot a member of the public after the latter dared mention that the minister had lost.
It is probable that rigging is now underway: the time honoured method of replacing the ballot boxes with pre-filled ones.
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
To Kiranjeevi Eschol - Get your facts straight. A lot of people in britain could see that Harold Wilson was a shifty little spiv, that Joshua Nkomo was a muderous dictator in waiting and that Mugabe could not be trusted. Many people also saw that Ian Smith was a war hero and represented everything that was best about the British Empire.
Harold Wilson would not give Ian Smith any support but Mnay british people at the time sympathised with the Rhodesians, whom we called 'Our kith and Kin'. It may have been a rogue state but it was certainly a better place that it is now - Thanks to Mugabe and his apologists.
Riley, Kiev, Ukraine
This is a trick to buy time and rig the elections or coerce voters to vote Mugabe.
The results of this election have been known since Saturday night or early Sunday morning. As early as Sunday morning information sourced from a family member of the Zimbabwe intelligence services reached me that Mugabe and his party have lost heavily. Zimbabweans voted for Tsvangirai by a wide margin.
The intelligence services operative who leaked this information was one of those tasked to be present as the counting took place. He added that none of the electoral commission members had the courage to announce the results as they were so heavily against Mugabe and his party.
Additional information not reaching UK news is that Mugabe's security minister was caught at the weekend with boxes of pre-filled ballot papers and was briefly arrested. Another of Mugabe's ministers who lost in his constituency shot a member of the public after the latter dared mention that the minister had lost.
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
Rhodesia illegally decalred UDI, from Britain, in 1965 when it became clear that Britain would only grant independence based on the black majority having a fair share in the government of the country. Britain regarded Rhodesia as a rebel colony and imposed sanctions backed by the UN and Resolution 216. Rhodesia remained unrecognised internationally throughout the 1970s. Following the Lancaster House talks Britain reagained control of Rhodesia as the"British Dependency of Southern Rhodesia". the legally independent Republic of Zimbabwe was declared in April 1980. So, Zimbabwe gained independence from Britain in 1980.
Frazer Archer, Derby, England
The picture above can be misleading. It shows what appear to be true supporters of Mugabe. I have been at these events before. Many of the people at these gatherings have no choice but to be there, and they have no choice but to sing so-called "revolutionary" songs. They have probably been threateningly herded from the street side onto a ZANU(PF) bus, then got further bribed with lunch. I can't think of any ordinary person who would support Mugabe when you now need millions of dollars to buy a loaf of bread, if you can find it. That single loaf price amounts to perhaps 10% of an average person's monthly salary. When the event is over, they each have to go back to their hungry families.
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
It is very sad to see Zimbabwe and its people in such a mess. Clearly, after independence land reform was urgently needed, because it was wrong that the white minority should own such a large proportion of the agricultural land, but after evicting many of these farmers of European origin Mugabe did not prepare a viable alternative for the indigenous African population - hence the horrendous situation the people find themselves in. Mugabe is obviously long past retirement age. Perhaps if he could be assured of his personal security - as he assured Ian Smith - then he would go quietly and ensure an orderly transfer.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
Rhodesia declared unilateral independance. Of course Smith had no support from Great Britain
Alan, Chelmsford, UK
So basically he has another week to try and set up a rigged vote but this time with only 1 other contender?
The whole thing is a paricularly sick joke and this man needs removed from his position.
Gilchro1, Perth, Scotland
And what are we all going to do if (when..) he manages to rig the vote? Tap our fingers and say "oh dear" and then lose interest in favour of another international disaster?
I thought that Rhodesia was what the government of the British Colonial state of Southern Rhodesia called itself when it declared itself a republic. But after ten years they went back to being a colonial state, Southern Rhodesia, for a very short time, and a year later Zimbabwe emerged. So Zimbabwe achieved independence from Britain, even though during most of the ten years preceding the country was the 'rogue state' as you call it, Southern Rhodesia.
Charlie, London,
Strictly speaking Mr. Eshcol, as Britain and the UN never approved the independence declared by the government of Ian Smith, the country remained a British colony under an illegal regime. In 1979, after the Lancaster House talks and agreement, direct British rule was reinstated so that, at the time of independence in 1980 the handover was from Britain to the newly elected Zimbabwe regime. What a shame that such high hopes that existed then for a great future for a fine country should be dashed by the shambles that has passed for government and democracy since.
William Epps, Broadstairs, Kent
Kiranjeevi, what does it matter? Live in the present and sort the present situation. Mugabe has decimated your country. Get rid of him and give yourselves the chance to recover and move forward.
Richard, Sharjah, UAE
Isn't it said that the first principle of African Socialism known as the 'P Principle'? P on the People, P Particularly on the Peasants, Protect the Party and the Police, and the Party and the Police will Protect the President
Richard, Bexhill, UK
Where's Kofi?
It looks like his expertise will be required again.
Ian, Melbourne, Australia
Its no mistake. Mugabe took over from Ian Smith in 1980 and due to greed he doesn't want to give up the Presidential seat. I only pray that our fears prove wrong and he doesn't rig the elections again as he did 6 years ago. God bless Zimbabwe
Michael Kelly, London, UK
In 1965 Smith made a Unilateral Declaration of Independence and declared a state of emergency (which was renewed every year until 1990!). Negotiations between Britain and the RF started in 1975 in the hope of reaching a satisfactory, non-racist constitution. In 1976 ZANU and ZAPU merged to form the Patriotic Front, PF. A new constitution was finally agreed by all parties in 1979 and independence achieved in 1980.
Nick, Eastbourne, UK
Why the fuss? I ask the right : "How hard did you try to unseat Ian Smith's illegal regime?* " I ask the left : "Do you regret us abdicating colonial power in Africa?" I fail to see either our legal right or moral responsibility to involve ourselves.
* Perhaps BP could benignly influence the Harare regime w ith a bit of sanctions busting ?
E Skelton, cardiff, wales
Kiranjeevi Eshcol in Bulawayo says that Ian Smith's Rhodesia was a rogue state.
Maybe, but a very stable rogue state the "Bread basket of Africa" good levels of employment, petrol at all the garages and the dollar was a tenable currency.
Roger Kendrick, Briouze, France
History states that British rule was restored in Rhodesia when it resumed its status as a British colony for a short while in 1979-80.
C Bird, Doha,
Kiranjeevi, the Times article is correct.
1965 saw a UNILATERAL Declaration of Independence, that was never officially recognised by the colonial power, Great Britain.
Only in 1980 did the country formally gain independence.
Chris Gregory, London, UK
Official independence and the name change to Zimbabwe was in 1980, and, indeed, in this period, the country had a British Governor.
James, Monteria, Colombia
Since when did history state that Zimbabwe gained independance from Britan in 1980? Ian Smith's government didn't have any support what so ever from Britan. It was a rogue state! This is a very careless mistake.
Kiranjeevi Eshcol, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe