Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor and James Bone in New York
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He has been accused of dithering over foreign policy, labelled a “hermit prime minister” by one critic and is eclipsed on the world stage by more forceful leaders. Yet Gordon Brown may be in a position finally to redeem himself by playing a pivotal role in resolving one of the toughest crises to face Africa in the past decade.
The Prime Minister sets off on a four-day trip to America next week, where he will attend a meeting at the United Nations, visit President Bush and deliver a speech in Boston.
Unlike previous prime ministerial missions to America the key event could be the UN fixture rather than his date at the White House. It is here, in the company of President Mbeki of South Africa, that senior British officials hope progress may be made to hasten the end of the rule of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe and begin the country’s long path to reconstruction.
Experts caution that dislodging the 84-year-old dictator and orchestrating a peaceful handover of power is a huge challenge and one that notably eluded Tony Blair and a succession of British foreign secretaries.
But there is a real sense in Whitehall that Mr Mugabe has at most weeks or months left in office and that Britain can play a decisive role behind the scenes to ensure that the great survivor of southern African politics does not wriggle off the hook one last time.
Much will depend on high-stakes diplomacy this weekend.
Lord Malloch-Brown, the Foreign Office minister responsible for Africa, is paying a discreet visit to Beijing where he will try to persuade China to drop its support for the Mugabe regime.
In the past the Chinese, who have a veto on the UN Security Council, have prevented Zimbabwe from being raised. They have insisted that the crisis is an internal matter and does not constitute a “violation of international peace and security”, the prerequisite for UN Security Council action. Already under growing international pressure over Tibet, Darfur and Burma, the calculation is that China is unlikely to take a stand over the crumbling regime of Mr Mugabe.
The next challenge is to overcome the timid behaviour of Zimbabwe’s African neighbours. This is being made easier by the refusal by Mr Mugabe to attend an emergency summit on Zimbabwe being held in Zambia today by the 14-member Southern African Development Community.
The African leaders wanted an explanation about the failure of the Zimbabwean authorities to release the results of the presidential election held two weeks ago or to set a date for a run-off. Without the presence of Mr Mugabe a tougher position is likely to be adopted. His nonappearance will also reinforce the impression that he is no longer in control of the country, which some suspect may already have passed into the hands of the security elite around him.
The recent violence, combined with the collapsing Zimbabwean economy, its record inflation and the flight of millions of its citizens to neighbouring states, will give Mr Brown the opportunity to argue that Zimbabwe requires the attention of the UN Security Council urgently.
Getting the issue before the council could be a hugely significant first step. The Security Council has the power to enforce international law, authorise the use of force and dispatch peace-keeping troops.
Although Britain has succeeded before in pushing Zimbabwe on to the agenda, to discuss brutal episodes in the rule of Mr Mugabe, no one will be under any illusion that this time the council is being brought in to help to administer the death rites to his regime.
But Mr Brown will need guile, persuasion and passion to carry the day when Zimbabwe is expected to be discussed in the margins of the Security Council summit on African Union-UN cooperation on Wednesday.
He will be accompanying President Mbeki, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council. Although the head of a regional superpower, Mr Mbeki has failed to confront Mr Mugabe over his destructive policies. The “quiet diplomacy” of the South African leader has notably failed to halt the destruction of the Zimbabwean economy.
After two hours of talks in London last weekend Mr Mbeki did give Mr Brown a commitment that he would support action in the UN if no progress had been made to end the crisis.
Even with the support of South Africa other Security Council members could also block moves to draw up a tough statement against Zimbabwe because the wording of any text requires unanimity.
Libya, formerly a close ally of the regime, which has pursued eccentric policies in Africa, could block any critical statement against Harare. The Libyans and others may also resent Zimbabwe’s former colonial power taking such a strong position in deciding its future.
Mr Brown will have to persuade world leaders that the debate over Mr Mugabe and his failed reelection attempt is over. What matters now is the future stability of Zimbabwe and the commitment of the international community to help the peaceful transfer of power and the multibillion-pound effort needed to rebuild the shattered country.
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i don't think brown should get UK involved in aftermath of Mugabe got a lot going on right now the war in Afghanistan a lot of problems at home the money markets etc should get on with fixing problem at home before we get are self's into any more trouble abroad.and that includes sending money to Zimbabwe, wot are the African states doing to help not lot it seems,its about time we triad to fix some issues at home we seem to get are self into everybody problem's not a question of being weak we are small not very popular island , there are people in this country who need help, i would like at least some of the tax i pay to go towards helping them. but in the end as soon as brown gets a chance to send some of my money and yours to some future dictator in Zimbabwe he will do to, we as a country had chance to push issues about Africa at servel g8 meetings and failed. Â
scott treadwell, coventry,
""Crisis in Zimbabwe is Gordon Brown's chance to make a name for himself on the world stage""
If you mean in a positive action role - I don't think so.
Brown is an accountant, not a leader.
A more serious example of a supporter of war if he's hiding behind a leader (the other being Blair following Bush); a dove or more accurately a coward if he's holding the buck.
Brown will look to a leader to make a decision, gauge the public/world opinion, then go with that.
Brown will go down in history as even less important as John Major as Prime-Ministers go.
Now that's an achievement!
Phill, Wirral, England
Mbeki and the SADC have a lot to answer for in protecting Mugabe as he plays an inverted Race card, whilst treating his people much worse then the Colonialists ever did.
Alisdair Budd, Southend, UK
Labour governments have always been too weak to do anything meaningful about Zimbabwe. I doubt whether the Brown government will be any different.
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
Re Theresa comment she could be describing Britain!
I'd like to know how Gordon Brown feels he can criticize Robert Mugabe when he failed to hold a general election in Britain last year, frightened of losing power maybe! Not to mention the U turn of a referendum of the Lisbon treaty, what a hypocrite.
SHIRLEY , Josselin, France
Oh the naiveity of the article! What would be the justification of international peace keeping troops in Zimbabwe? Why the concerted effort to wriggle China's hand in dropping support for Zimbabwe? Why hasn't Britain been similarly worried about the real crisis in Darfur? Shouldn't an international force be marshalled to deal with the helpless in Darfur? Shouldn't China be plodded to exert more of a hand in Darfur than Zimbabwe?
British attempts to corrupt fellow Security Council members is a blatant misuse of influence. It's ironic that the world's worst abuser of human rights - China, is the nation Britain thinks can resolve alleged human rights abuses, utterly comical! Britain has no shame going to bed with Saudi Arabia - a chronic abuser of human and specifically women's rights! We hear no complaints about Saudi Arabia but only daily braying about Zimbabwe! What hypocrisy!
Gilbert Phiri, Swindon, UK
This weekends SADC meeting is a chance to see whether this body has any real substance or not. In supporting the "quiet diplomacy" over Zimbabwe, as espoused by SA President Thabo Mbeki,, they bear responsibility for the brutal regime that they have allowed to keep in office. The recent elections were unequivocal in placing parliament in the hands of the MDC and the Presidential elections (which have still to be formally published) were clearly of a similar result, or ZANU/PF would have told us so. Although the international community (especially Britain) should be involved in restructuring a country devastated by state sponsored starvation, corruption and poor governance, it is the African Union and SADC that needs to have the courage to tell Mugabe to go. They must do so now for the sake of the Zimbabwean people and for Africa as a whole.
Martyn McCormack, Nantwich, UK
So Roger prefers Mugabe? So what are you doing in St Albans ENGLAND if he and what he is doing to Zimbabweis so great1
(Yes, the opposition may not be wondeful, but anything is better than the crook Mugabe)
Andrew, Cambridge,
Right, so Brown should make it clear that 'they could ask that the 2010 World cup to be moved...' who are the 'they.' Britain, a medium power, doesn't have such influence. And consider this, European colonials ochestrate world cup move, African countries boycott the tournament. Whose moral victory?
Tom Baker, London, Uk
Brown and others must put pressure on Mbeki and make it clear they could ask the 2010 World cup to be moved if the region is unstable.The world cup could get bad press like the one the Olympic torch is getting.So Mbeki should be made to play ball that world events which are cash bonanzas to come to bad neighbourhoods
Zimbo, harara, Zimbabwe
As a Zimbabwean I am amazed at the rather simple analysis that is offered to explain modern day Zimbabwe; by way of simply labelling Mugabe a dictator and ordaining the opposition leader as some sort of messaih. So the Mugabe who was knighted by Queen Elizabeth in 1994 and his Zanu party who liberated us and allowed us access to education and better opportunity should now bow out owing to unfair economic sanctions and make way for some trade unionist who dropped out of school at 16 ? How would the British like it if the EU or America imposed sancitons on them and demanded that Bob Crow rising on the wave of popular support from ordinary Britons suffereng economically be installed as their new leader ? The establishment wouldn't have it - same thing in Zim we ain't having it ! Looking at the multitudes of black americans in jail or the very poorly schooled black Brits I meet here I can never be conviced that the so called west ever has the interest of the africans at heart. Let us be !
Roger Ndaba , St Albans, UK
Gordon Brown resolve the Zimbabwe situation , dont make me laugh , I doubt whether he could find it on the map , What he will do of course is throw pots of British taxpayers money at it , bask in some reflected glory and this will be acclaimed as a solution by 98% of somebodies population . What Mugs these people really are
Ed Allen, Whitby, Canada
It is good to have this kind of analysis available.
1. So we are engaging China.
2. South Africa is currently presiding or chairing over the Security Council. I thought it was chaired? Zimbabwe was chair during the first Iraq war.
3. Libya might veto - doesn't Zimbabwe still owe them some money for all that oil!
I think we might be getting to the issues now. I wonder what others will come out?
Jo, Olney, UK
The only pivotal role Brown will play is to act as the conduit for our money to transferred to another failed African state.
Easy come easy go especially when its not your money to give away.
Cant wait to read the conditions attached ,absolutely laughable which is exactly what the africans are doing to us, hence the race card.
Paul Anthony, reading, uk
And not just HIS money - the millions, indeed billions of US dollars that the military chiefs, government officials, other sidekicks and their wifes have grubbed over 28 years of hands in the till - there is a shedload somewhere.
It is the very reason they all want to hang on to government (and I use the term loosely here) no matter the cost - it's ALL about the money and the power to do with it as they please.
Susan, Texas, USA
I visited Zimbabwe in 2005 and what I saw broke my heart. Starving people...no food...no water...their money worthless...no healthcare...no shelter...desolate land in what was once lucious and productive agriculture. Zimbabwe has a very complicated situation. Tensions are high. People have been deceived by Mugabe and his lies. Certain people have profited highly from his reign. Promises have been made if he can stay in power. Mugabe definately needs to be removed from office...I just wonder who/"what" will take his place?
Teresa, Ely, USA/Iowa
Use mugabe's money first.
m wilson, bidache, france