Thabo Mbeki, who is playing the key role in behind-the-scenes efforts to broker a peaceful solution to the Zimbabwe crisis, could soon find himself in a very strange position: applauded by friends and foes alike.

If, however, Mr Mugabe is still in power in a month’s time the South African President will have a lot of explaining to do.

Diplomats say that if President Mugabe is finally eased out of office, Mr Mbeki will take much of the credit.

“I don’t think you can say they are brokering the deal, but they are making all the important calls. They are quietly pressuring the parties to keep talking to each other and keeping the talks on track,” a senior Western diplomat in Pretoria said.

Gordon Brown recognises the pivotal role Mr Mbeki is playing. He has telephoned Mr Mbeki several times in the past few days and the South African leader has cancelled a visit to London today so that he can remain close to the negotiations. The United States has also been urging Mr Mbeki to continue to orchestrate events.

Mr Mbeki, long vilified for his “quiet diplomacy” approach to Mr Mugabe, is already credited with engineering the current situation by persuading the veteran Zimbabwean leader to accept a series of apparently tiny measures. These include allowing election results to be posted outside every polling station before being sent to regional centres and giving observers and election agents of all parties access to the interior of each polling station.

The result has been the most free and fair elections, though still deeply flawed, in the country under Mr Mugabe’s 28-year rule.

“Everybody was laughing at Mbeki and his mediation efforts, but his aides are saying he has delivered,” said Buchizya Mseteka, a political analyst on southern Africa.

Since last weekend’s poll Mr Mbeki has maintained solid pressure on the Zimbabwean Government to honour its previous pledges to make the results public — a move that is designed to make it impossible for Mr Mugabe and his cohorts to rig themselves back into power.

Even if Mr Mugabe declines to go and, urged on by a handful of hardliners in the security forces, opts to fight a second round, the South Africans will keep up the pressure for an honest result — a policy that virtually ensures the end of the current regime.

In his first reaction to the election results, Mr Mbeki urged all sides to respect the outcome. “If indeed Tsvangirai has been elected that’s fine, and if there is a run-off that’s fine. That’s a matter we must await,” he said.

Mr Mbeki and his closest advisers have also kept open channels of communication to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai. Last night he talked to Mr Tsvangirai again on the telephone,

It is a supreme irony that Mr Mbeki could pull off a considerable diplomatic coup at a time when he has never been weaker at home. His once-powerful grip on the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has all but evaporated since his arch-rival Jacob Zuma became its President in a bitterly fought contest last December. He is set to limp on to next year when he steps down, a bruised and battered figure largely disowned by the movement he has served all his life.

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