This time last week I was at the Retreat Polling Station doing my MDC Agents duties. When it came time to count the ballot papers at the polling station there was a huge sense of the dramatic as the seals were cut off and the nearly 600 ballot papers fell out on the counting table. All heads craned in and one could see a number of marked ballot papers but the first task was to verify if the box contained the same number of ballots as I had recorded on my counter = 585. The initial count gave 584 so the Presiding Officer ordered a re-count.. but same result. At that stage the ballot box was checked and then the missing ballot was found on the floor ( the hazards of counting by gas and candle light ) and all 20 witnesses were asked if they were satisfied with the count? With no queries the ZEC staff went on to do the actual contestants count, turning the ballots face up for all to see.

This stage had every one absolutely riveted as the 3 main contestants piles began to grow. We all watched the uncounted pile decrease and tried to guess the outcome but it was obvious that Bob was doing very poorly. It looked like Morgan was ahead but it was difficult to judge the lose piles until they were reduced into clipped piles of 20 ballot papers. We could all do the quick maths but only once the Presiding Officer did the final count was the result official :-

Bob 53 or 9%

Simba 240 or 41%

Morgan 282 or 48%

It was quiet smiles all round , except for the ZPF guy who was muttering about " rigging". We continued on with the other 3 election results and finished at 3.30 am. We all signed the ZEC official " Final Analysis Pro forma ", or Blue Paper, in quadruplicate and saw the one copy tied to a tree outside the polling station as required by law. There were several journalists waiting for the details and they were relaying results back to their agencies. I finalised the MDC " Critical Analysis Report ", which included all the ballot book details, numbers, last ballot issued, spoilt papers and a general report on the conduct of the poll, then signed the certification. I then took the disposable camera we were given and used up the entire spool on photographing the 4 Blue Papers and the site, as evidence in case of a rigging problem.

I then went to the Constituency Command Centre to drop off my Report and camera. It turned out that Retreat was the last polling station to finish as we apparently had the most votes cast. It took 2 minutes to transcribe my details onto the Spread Sheet and the final "Popular Vote" results were now complete. Mugabe did not gain more then 10% in the whole Constituency !!

I have taken some time to explain the details I personally witnessed as this was a microcosm of the process being carried out across the whole country. It is on this basis that the 99% of all of the popular results were known by all involved by lunch time on Sunday.



If Mugabe had won, the results would have been out on Monday and he would have been sworn in on Tuesday!



So what the hell is going on ?? Most of you would have followed the general themes that are coming out.. rigging.. buying time.. negotiations.. coups.. etc. So let me give you my insight as to what is going on.

The results took ZPF totally by surprise and they had never dreamed that their loss would ever materialise. In 1980 , when I was still in the Rhodesian Army, we started to 'tidy house' well in advance. We had organised Dakota's to fly out all " non-essential " documents and files, the Regimental Silver and Regimental Colours in the event of a loss at the Polls. A great deal of planning was done to provide a series of contingency plans to meet the possible threat. This was not the case with the arrogant ZPF. They were now faced with the huge task of " housekeeping " 20 years of corruption, dirty tricks and all manner of shenanigans including the DR Congo escapade. There was also the stark reality that the good times were over and that it was their turn to eat the tough, unpalatable, full of feathers and bones...CROW.

The interminable delays by ZEC in announcing the pre-counted results has been a carefully choreographed TV and Radio drama that has been played out to allow ZPF and Robert Mugabe ( "our dear old man" to quote Didymus Mutasa) to come to terms with reality and to plan a palatable way forward. Finding some sort of sauce or relish, some wonderful condiment that will make the CROW taste better is proving to be an elusive task.... it is still CROW.



Some of the options that have been put forward include :-

~ A 6 Month Transitional Govt with RGM as Head of State.

~ A Govt of National Unity with RGM as its Head.

~ Rule by Decree for 90 Days and then have a re-run.

~ Stage a Coup and retain power. ( Mbeki vetoed that one and said you will have real sanctions if you go that route. No fuel, no power and a closed border. This

was echoed by Botswana, Zambia and Mozambique.

~ Assassinate the hard liners, president(s) or any one else.

But the reality is that none of the above are even options. RGM has been under great pressure to take as graceful an exit as possible along the following lines :-

~ " Give " Morgan the Presidency.

~ Retire as a" Statesman"

~ Receive the accolades of the Region and International community

~ Retire to his farm in Zwhimba and live out his immunity ( in Zimbabwe only) for the rest of his days.

~ Reserve Plot No1 at Hero's Acre for him.

It appears that this option has been generally accepted by RGM as he knows the real results and will suffer a drubbing if he goes for a re-run. The problem now lies with all the toxic Service Chiefs and Cabinet who are encouraging him to fight on to preserve their special interests. How is it possible to accommodate all their devious interests ??. Hence the delay in making a final announcement... it will not be made until a final agreement has been made that accommodates the main players interests.

At this stage every one is playing very high stakes poker. Both sides are building their own positions with threats and lots of bluffing as they try to strengthen their respective hand. A lot of cards have been shown but who still holds the colour cards? Can RGM turn a pair of Two's into a Flush ?? Such is the nature of the game.

So in the interests of sanity, minimizing bloodshed, loss of life and keeping the country stable the waiting game will continue to be played out. See the threats of War Vets, Politburo statements and interviews by Jabulani Sibanda for what they really are, scare tactics to try to wring more concessions from President Morgan Tsvangirai. The longer the wait, the more you can be convinced that the end game is going our way.

To finish off a couple of things to help get some more perspective :-

~ The combined votes of MDC T, MDC AM and Simba Makoni will result in a 75% positive poll result that will be impossible to " Massage "

~ The 33% of votes available in the Matabeleland and Bulawayo will never go to Mugabe, regardless of any level of intimidation. This is a good foundation to build on and allow more resources to be concentrated on better prospects.

~ Fact. In the areas where my staff come from they have already had all the election promised buses, micro-buses and tractors pulled out. " They were just like a big election poster !"

~ It will be very difficult to re-campaign in those areas again.

~ The electorate is singularly dis-interested in historical rhetoric, ramblings on about sovereignty and past dead hero's. They want to know about food, health care, schooling, bus fares, electricity and the day to day issues that they stare in the face every single day. You cannot eat political Rhubarb.

~` We have a harvest this year that will meet 25% of the nations needs. The next crop will only come in May 2009! Who will feed the people - certainly not RGM.

~ The MDC does have the friends and means to quickly change the current levels of starvation to sufficiency until next years crop comes in.

~ ZPF and RGM face an incredibly difficult election campaign if they go this route.

~ ZPF are struggling mightily and we do not know what their final plans are at this stage, They are desperate and still may have some surprises in store.

Dave Bradshaw, Harare, Zimbabwe

its plain he will never go of his own accord. i ask that the 'world police' talked about since 9/11 simply arrest him by whatever means. difficult to do? of course, but we owe it to his people, for we could easily have been born there ourselves.

mike, manchester, uk

Mugabe rules the country by brute force of the gun and bullet, not by consent of his people. Now that his friends in China cannot deliver armaments to Zimbabwe what will he depend on? The brutal army will soon run out of bullets. ZANU(PF) and Mugabe are finished!

Charan Muzaya, London, UK