Zimbabwe is to go ahead with a second-round presidential election run-off in the coming weeks, leaving the Opposition scrambling to decide whether to take part or sacrifice the contest to Robert Mugabe.

The Zimbabwe Election Commission said yesterday that it would fix a date for the run-off “soon”, despite the protestations of the Movement for Democratic Change that the contest is unnecessary.

Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, claims to have won the poll with more than 50 per cent, avoiding the need for a second round. At meetings last week to verify the vote count, his representatives refused to accept official figures showing him falling short of an absolute majority.

The verification process is supposed to continue until all parties are in agreement over the count but the election commission push to put a date on the calendar suggests that it is determined its figures will stand.

Mr Tsvangirai remains outside the country, both for his security amid a brutal campaign of violence against the Opposition, and to lobby for international support.

His absence has left his party divided and unsure how to proceed. The former trade unionist has said that there is “no need for a run-off” but that he might take part in a second round if international observers were present. Effectively, however, he has little choice but to stand, as a boycott would hand victory to Mr Mugabe.

The election commission told state-run media yesterday that it would meet “as soon as possible” to decide on a date for the run-off, which must take place within 21 days of the publication of results. More than five weeks after the election, the only official release has been to party candidates at last week’s verification meetings, which put Mr Tsvangirai at 47.9 per cent and Mr Mugabe at 43.2 per cent. Most of the remaining votes went to Simba Makoni, the renegade ruling party candidate, with less than 1 per cent to an independent.

Speaking after an MDC meeting on Saturday to thrash out a strategy, Thokozani Khupe, the party’s deputy leader, said: “In the unlikely event of a run-off, the MDC will once again romp to victory by an even bigger margin.”

The violence unleashed in the wake of the disputed election, targeting party activists and polling officials, has led to fears that a second round will be far bloodier than the first, and destroy the Opposition’s chances. According to the MDC and human rights groups, at least 20 of its supporters have been killed, thousands displaced from their homes and hundreds remain in hiding from the government-backed militias roaming the countryside.

The campaign, coordinated by senior army personnel, has been called “Operation Where You Put Your X” because of the warnings not to vote MDC again.

Few believe that Mr Mugabe is prepared for the humiliation of losing another round, after coming in second in the first and seeing his Zanu (PF) party lose control of Parliament.

Analysts, who say the ruling party was stunned by its defeat, believe that Mr Tsvangirai’s margin of victory was simply too large for the Government to overturn credibly through rigging, and so the second-round option has become its only path back to power.

State-run media put a gloss on the election commission’s figures when they published a leak with a banner headline “no winner”. The Opposition said that such leaks are part of a strategy to make the results official before they have a chance to challenge them. South Africa’s ruling African National Congress has encouraged the parties to seek a compromise in the form of a government of national unity.

Gwede Mantashe, the secretary-general, said: “We need to look at whether a rerun will be in the best interests of Zimbabwe or whether they can negotiate a more accommodative arrangement.”

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