Zimbabwe’s neighbours are bracing themselves for an influx of millions of refugees after the run-off presidential poll next week, which President Mugabe is determined to win even at the cost of regional isolation.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has put contingency plans in place in the expectation that hordes of Zimbabweans will cross the borders to Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia and South Africa, where an estimated three million of their countrymen are already taking refuge.

“UNHCR has prepositioned food and tents in all these places in the expectation of a flight of more refugees,” a senior official told The Times.

It has become clear that Mr Mugabe will not hand power to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) even if he loses the election. He is also determined to use violence and rigging to win it.

Mr Mugabe declared yesterday that “only God” could remove him from office. He was also quoted in the daily state newspaper The Herald as saying that he would not retire until he had ensured that Zimbabwe’s land was “truly and safely in the hands of the black majority” - an open-ended invitation to himself to stay in office.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC), a grouping of neighbouring states, has tacitly accepted that it is powerless to stop Mr Mugabe. More African nations have joined the US and Britain in saying that the poll will not be free or fair because of violence unleashed by thugs in Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF). But Olivia Muchen, a minister in Mr Mugabe’s Government, accused Gordon Brown of attempting to bribe and coerce African leaders to condemn the poll.

Buchizya Mseteka, a regional analyst, said: “There is no question of military intervention. But equally, the regime that emerges from the run-off will have no legitimacy at all. Effectively we are witnessing a military coup. The economy will be his undoing.”

Most observers believe that the election will provide no solution to Zimbabwe’s problems and that the economic situation is now so dire that people will just leave the country to find food. “People are too tired and exhausted to take to the streets, and neighbouring states can do nothing except stand by and condemn events,” a regional diplomatic source said.

Reports emerged yesterday that Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader and Mr Mugabe’s election opponent, was considering pulling out of Friday’s election because of the violence and fears that it will be a charade.

Nelson Chamisa, a party spokesman, said: “There is a huge avalanche of calls and pressure from supporters, especially in the rural areas, not to be participants in this charade.” He added that the MDC would decide on Monday whether to contest the poll. Zimbabwean doctors published a list yesterday showing that 85 people had died in political violence in the past 11 weeks. At least 21 of the deaths were murder-squad “executions”, with the victims snatched from their homes or off the street and the bodies found days later dumped in the bush.

But police dismissed detailed witness reports of the deaths this week of Abigail Chiroto, wife of the unofficial mayor of Harare, and four young men in an attack on the home of an MDC councillor in Chitungwiza township on Wednesday. “We are not aware of any of these murders,” Chief Superintendent Oliver Mandipaka said, adding that police had recorded a decline in cases of political violence.

MDC campaigning has all but dried up compared with the March ballot, when the opposition was able to out-campaign Zanu (PF) with rallies, posters, meetings and advertising. Now buses are forced to carry Zanu (PF) stickers and many business offices in Harare are displaying ruling party posters for protection in case they are raided by mobs. In rural areas, Mugabe T-shirts are ubiquitous, also as an insurance against attack.

“The MDC’s structures have been decimated,” Mr Tsvangirai admitted last week. MDC officials say that Zanu (PF)’s campaign of violence has eliminated most of the activists responsible for mobilising party support.

But Mr Tsvangirai still believes that he can end Mr Mugabe’s 28-year rule and he said that Zimbabweans must have “hope and courage” and turn out to vote next week. “If we fall into despair or disarray, my friends, the regime will have succeeded in its evil machinations to divide and discourage us,” he said in a message to supporters.

President Mbeki of South Africa, the SADC’s official mediator for the crisis, failed this week to broker a face-to-face meeting between Mr Tsvangirai and Mr Mugabe to push the idea of a government of national unity. Mr Mugabe flatly refused to consider the idea.

Mr Mbeki, long criticised for failing to take a tough approach with his Zimbabwean counterpart, is reported to want the MDC to pull out of the poll, which he believes will lead only to more violence.

The SADC balks at any suggestion of military intervention, but does now appear ready to isolate Mr Mugabe diplomatically - even if there is a huge exodus of people.

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