Analysis: Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor
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For a man who has battled for nearly a decade to become President of Zimbabwe, Morgan Tsvangirai's decision to pull out of the race against Robert Mugabe only days before polling must have been the toughest of his career.
The former union boss has suffered arrest and beatings at the hands of his rival. His supporters have been murdered, arrested and tortured. Many wanted him to continue the fight until election day on Friday, but he reached the conclusion that staying in the presidential race would only lead to more bloodshed.
As Mr Mugabe has made clear in both words and deeds over the past week, the outcome of the vote was never in doubt. A clear majority of Zimbabweans may want him out, but there is not much that the civilian population can do against the combined might of the Zanu (PF) militia and the security forces, not to mention the electoral authorities, which have still not given a full account of the last vote. In Mr Mugabe's own words, “only God” could remove him from office.
Mr Tsvangirai has probably rightly calculated that he can still prevail, but that he will have to adopt different tactics to oust Mr Mugabe. The battle will now move beyond the country's borders to the international community, in particular the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC), the African Union and the United Nations.
In the past South Africa, and in particular President Mbeki, has shielded Mr Mugabe from outside pressure. There is now growing evidence that Zimbabwe has become an embarrassment for African leaders and a burden on its neighbours, where millions of Zimbabweans have sought sanctuary.
SADC members such as Zambia, Tanzania, Angola and Botswana have broken ranks to criticise Mr Mugabe's regime. He has also come under regular attack from South Africa's ruling African National Congress and its leader, Jacob Zuma, Mr Mbeki's likely successor next year.
The aim of the anti-Mugabe forces will be to turn Zimbabwe into a pariah state. As a first move, the international community can refuse to recognise Mr Mugabe when he is sworn in for another term as President. Sanctions can be increased against the leadership, particularly any figures responsible for the latest violence. If South Africa throws its full weight behind the effort, the regime in Zimbabwe will be doomed.
Britain and America are likely to press for action from the United Nations Security Council, where even Zimbabwe's old allies, such as China, may distance themselves from his regime.
While political pressure grows from abroad, the unopposed re-election of Mr Mugabe is likely to lead to the final collapse of the Zimbabwean economy. The regime may still retain the loyalty of party activists and the security forces, but its ability to function will be seriously tested amid spiralling inflation and growing food shortages.
The combined political and economic forces squeezing the country should make it clear to the regime that it is not possible to turn the clock back to the situation that existed before the first-round elections in March, which Mr Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change won.
It is not now a question of whether Mr Mugabe's regime will collapse, but when. The worst possible outcome would be a descent into further conflict and the need for an international intervention force to restore order.
Hopefully before that happens the veteran Zimbabwean leader can be persuaded to bow out peacefully. That could allow some political settlement to be reached, perhaps a transitional period leading to fresh elections. Mr Tsvangirai may yet succeed Mr Mugabe, without the need for divine intervention.
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John, Davenport, USA
Absolutely correct. Why can't the others think like you? I really admire you." Do not do unto others what you do not want others do unto you." The wisdom of Confucius.
To my other western friends, please read John's comment & be wiser. Peace to all.
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Angela, Epping, Australia
From Mr.Sam Madondo, Masvingo, Zimbabwe's comments the MDC is not all that saintly. Thank you Sam, now we the people outside Zim. know that Zanu PF is not the only violent and nasty party. A coin has 2 sides.
Angela, it is God help those who help themselves, right?
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Western civilisation has evolved over hundreds of years; most of southern Africa was in the stone age until 300 odd years ago. Metaphorically, Zimbabwe's ministers fell out of a cave and into a Mercedes. Is it any wonder it all went wrong? Get him out, & teach his replacement to walk before he runs.
Charlie - Ex-Zim, Cheltenham,
I endorse peter c, Devizes, wessex comment. However, Peter,
I would conclude that many Americans share your views. Let
Africa be. We should telling others how to operate their countries.
John, Placentia, Republic of California
Sam Madondo, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
You may not need anyone's help but an awful lot of dead Zimbabweans could have benefited enormously from some.
If you are supporting Zanu P through fear - God be with you. If you are supporting them through conviction - well, God help you.
Angela, Epping, Australia
Blame the British and American governments for the problems in Rhodesia. They are the ones that slapped sanctions on the Rhodesian government of Robert Smith and forced him to cede power to Mugabe and his band of thugs in the name of "democracy" and look what it got the people of Rhodesia.
Herb Smith, Cleveland, Texas, United States
It is time for the SADF to enter Zimbabwe and roll into the streets of Harare taking care of any ZANU-PF supporters along the way as they arrest Mugabe and his criminal military junta cabal pending transfer to the UN Tribunal to stand trial for their crimes against humanity. Down with Mugabe/Mbeki!
David, Los Angeles, USA
We should stay out of Zimbabwe's business. Let them handle their own problems.
How would the USA or the UK feel about a foreign nation telling them what to do in their own country? If some other country had forcibly come into the USA during our Civil War they would have been attacked by both sides.
John, Davenport, USA
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia:
I think non-Zimbabweans can legitmately offer opinions on this matter.
This sort of thing does affect us all if we allow it to spread.
We have had Bush for 8 years in who stole an election in many eyes and non-Americans are allowed opinions on that.
Jason Pearson, Toronto, Canada
You British & US backed press, you just talk of imagined violence from Zanu PF , but do not talk on that which is being perpetrated by MDC,why? Ask us Zimbabweans who have relatives who were killed by MDC thugs. You want another Iraq type of invasion & loot Zim"s uranium. We don"t need your help
Sam Madondo, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
Everybody keeps talking about the "Revolution" that Mugabe was involved in as if it was some great event in African history. Seems to me Zimbabwe was alot better off under British colonialism. They replaced a colonial government that provided jobs and stability with a murderous government of thugs.
Thomas Morgan, Bangkok, Thailand
The world should support ICC efforts to indict Mugabe as a war criminal. He has all but declared war on Zimbabwe and it's people. They should ratchet up pressure on Thabo Mbeki to denounce the thugocracy and endorse the MDC. There is no place in Zimbabwe for Mugabe, no place at all.
Robert Glennie, Christchurch, New Zealand
Tsvangirayi...a would be president who encourages stay away boycotts to paralyse the economy....who goes and sources sanctions against his own people.Who creates a coalition with AWB and Rhodesians .Funny when it yields results he points a finger at Mugabe.we need real change not cosmetic reform
yahwe, harare, zimbabwe
The fall of the British empire in S,. Rhodesia(Zimbabwe),resulting in the eventual rise of Mr. Mugabe will become part of the cycle of one dictator replacing another until stability can be achieved through the pursuit of common good and goals that appeal to the average ciitizen in Zimbabwe.
Mike, sparks, usa
I am impressed with all the interest that Zimbabwe's plight has brought to the international audience. Greatful that technology can bring us together to present our views and thoughts. More folks than not care hence the time spent on this sad situation. Emotions bleed for all humanity. thank y'all!
Paula, Houston,
What is needed at this point is much prayer. This is a war or principalities and powers of which our eyes can't see. All the saints of God need to fast and pray for God's Kingdom to come and His will being done in Zimbabwe.
Gloria Broadous, CA, USA
I want none of my tax $ going into Africa - period.
Richard, Bucharest,
we need to redefine what actions are illegitimate by a sovereign government. when such actions take place, there needs to be an agreed mechanism for international intervention and outside accountability. supporters of violence and genocide should be tried in an international court.
stephen, china, china
Richard, Melbourne, australia
I wonder why you Aussies and Kiwis are so interested and concerned about this African matter. Are you thinking the destiny of Zimbabwe might have an effect on Aust. & NZ.in d future.e.g Natives reclaiming land?
Don't get me wrong. Like u, I 'm just having my say.
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
The South African Trades Unions should step in here by cutting power supplies and halting lorry traffic into Zimbabwe.
It is time to step over the politicians and take direct action. Jacob Zuma depends on trades unions support for his upcoming presidency and should now step forward to take a lead.
Colin , Carmarthen, UK
The joke, of course, is that Great Britain under Harold Wilson sold Rhodesia/Zimbabwe down the river. What was then a highly prosperous country has turned into what we see today. And all because Wilson couldn't stomach UDI under Ian Smith.
Keith, Grantham,
What is it Ezhi Opfu most admires (from afar I note) about Mugabe's gangster regime? is it the 1 million per cent inflation, the 80% unemployment or the army and police being transformed into extensions of the ruling corrupt mafia? I think we should be told
James , Leicester, UK
jem, london, uk
Yes, you can be kind by donating milk, food, health equipment and others to Zimbabwe for the Zimbabwean people. To interfere in their politics is not kind. It is divisive and may contribute to misunderstanding, conflicts and even civil war. Am I right?
240608
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
with 8500 less election observers, widespread violence, murder and displacement the MDC was never going to win a free and fair election. Mr Tsvangarai's decision was the right one and only one. A decision which demonstrates that its the people's party and one of extreme maturity.
George, Dubai,
Ezhi Opfu, London, UK
I believe you. Not only Zimbabweans and Africans but all the various people of the world are capable of running their countries. Under developed countries can become developing and upwards to developed. If there is a will there is a way. My African brothers, show u can.
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
"our" hero Tsvangirai is now sipping Heinekens in the Dutch embassy while his supporters get beaten up. When Mugabe liberated us he spent years in white prison, being tortured and even on death row. Thats the difference.Is he in there begging his bosses for more sanctions to squeeze the poor more
Roger Ndaba , St Albans, UK
Why has the most respected South African voice been so quiet in the midst of all the mayhem in Zimbabwe? I speak, of course, of Nelson Mandela. Maybe, when he celebrates his 90th birthday in London, wise council will prevail and persuade him to use his influence in this unhappy situation.
Evelyn Proctor, Edinburgh, Scotland
Any outcome will drive more reverse apartheid, keeping out the white core that would surely sustain and rebuild this economy's farm lands - just as tensions in South Africa drive the ex-pat Zimbabweans home. More of the same to come here, methinks.
Geordie Kidston, London, UK
I think non-Zimbabweans miss the point. Zimbaweans are not divided into two distinct pro Mugabe and pro Tsvangirai camps. We are about more than that and we just want to get on with our lives !! But Tsvangirai has tasted western media celebrity and quite taken to it - so we can expect more stunts !!
Roger Ndaba , St Albans, UK
The international community have betray the People of Zimbabwe. Why is everyone getting excited now that the harm is already done and tens have died with hundreds injured or displaced?
The UN should have stepped in once the elections were stolen, and Mugabe arrested when he came to Europe recently.
Tom, London,
Bruised,blooded,bowed and dead describes the thousands and thousands of young black Zimbabweans who sacrificed their lives (during the liberation struggle) to bring the one man, one vote and human dignity to their fellow Zimbabweans.
Freedom and democracy require sacrificeand not retreat. Heroes?
Davis, Manchester,
To: Ezhi Opfu
Morgan Tsvangirai is a black hero not a white hero. He is also a trade unionist popular with the working people, hence his unpopularity with the Mugabe regime.
Colin , Carmarthen, UK
Zimbabwe has been predicted to collapse for the last ten years . The picture painted here does not reflect the real situation in the country. I was recently in Zim and there was an awful lot of building work going on in both the rural areas and towns. Would you build when you are hungry? Come on!
Davis, Manchester,
This is why some of us Zimbabweans cannot stand Tsvangirai. His audience is out here in the west. He should make way for somebodyelse to take on Zanu PF. All he wants is power not the betterment of Zim. So what next, a call for more sanctions and more suffering for ordianry folk so he can misrule?
Roger Ndaba , St Albans, UK
It's finally time for a police action by South Africa, a quick in and out rapidly followed by internationally supervised elections, just like Tanzania did with Idi Amin.
If Mebeki carries on his failed quiet diplomacy policy, then he can be the first to welcome another 2million refugees!
Patrick, Prague,
Ezhi Opfu,: If Mugabe is so popular why does he have to resort to such violence to win an election? Nelson Mandela won huge majority of votes from both blacks and white South Africans by peaceful and honest means. In fact if Mugabe's Zim is so wonderful why did you leave it to come here?
Luke, London, UK
"why should an englishman care what goes on thousands of miles away?" - is it, perhaps, because the life of a black child in zimbabwe is worth every bit as much as a white child in england? is it because our lives are blighted simply by the existence of such brutality and unfairness? conscience.
jem, london, uk
I can only assume that Mugabe has a large pile of dirt to drop on the ANC leaders if they turn off the power. Otherwise, their behavior is inexplicable. But then again, their behavior over HIV was also inexplicable. South Africa is another Zimbabwe waiting to happen. Give it 20 years or so....
Dr Robin Laundon, London, UK
Zimbabwe may not have collapsed, and it may not collapse, but it is certainly not thriving under Mugabe's rule. This has nothing to do with white supremacism. This is Africans killing Africans! And I don't see how anyone can defend it. We have spent way to much time begging off responsibility...
Lex, Cape Town,
Both Barclays Bank and the Chinese Government should stop their shadowy financial activities inside Zimbabwe (BBC news report today.) By providing finance credit to the Mugabe Government, these institutions are directly assisting the brutal regime.
Colin , Carmarthen, UK
Pieter, Oxford,
In your wildest dream, you believe because your people are saying so, that Mugabe is unpopular!
If indeed Mugabe is so unpopular where are the cream of Zimbabwean society, the university dons and professionals siding the MDC? How educated is the white hero, Morgan Tsvangirai?
Ezhi Opfu, London, UK
Nkomo predicted the current situation in Zimbabwe 25 yrs ago. Mbeki the cowardly neighbour could end this problem in days, but insists "Africans will sort out Africa's problems". Mbeki does not say when as his unseen efforts fail to deliver. Look for China's footprints in this region.
Bernie, Greater Manchester , UK
Ezhi,
Zimbabwe is divided amongst Mugabeites, and non-Mugabeites. The white population is insignificant and has been since Mugabe ended the white-seat quota in Parliment. This is not a white versus black issue. This is about what is right, and Mugabe and Shiri are not right.
Pieter, Oxford,
Frustrated White supremacist dreamers you are! You predicted about a year ago that Zimbabwe will collapse in 6 months and it has been more than 12 months without it happening. Stop dreaming and face reality!! Zimbabwe says no to White minority rule either directly or by puppetry!!!
John Iteshi, London, UK
Frank, Pretoria, South Africa
Where is your evidence of the thousands of deaths...? Did you elect Pres. Mbeki to rule Zimbabwe?
I think there are not many (if any) White South Africans that can genuinely claim to care so much for Black People except when they are worried about land redistribution!
John Iteshi, London, UK
The Court of Human Rights is waiting for you Mugabe! Starving (even your own) people is genocide!!! If you were white you'd have been in a cell in The Hague years ago.
richard jones, Athens, Greece
What's saddest is that it has to come to this..
The world has known for years what Mugabe has been up to.
Chris C, Zurich,
Dee, Manchester,
Which people's president? Your white supremacist people or the people of Zimbabwe?
Get it right, Zimbabwe is divided between those who believe in white supremacy and those who want to prove that Black people can build their own societies! If you truly belie we are equal keep off Zim
Ezhi Opfu, London, UK
A sad day indeed. This decision will rob Mugabe of the legitimacy of SADC that he craves. It is now time for SADC, the AU and Mbeki to act. Hopefully South Africa will remember the support it had in Zimbabwe when they too were fighting for democracy and freedom. Let the lights go out.
simon, London,
So much wishful thinking! So far nothing has happened to curb Mugabe's brutal regime. Past behaviour is the best indication of future behaviour - Mugabe's and the international powers that be.
Elizabeth, Belmopan,
What a triumph for Mbeki's quiet appeasement
Chris Jay, Shropshire, UK
It is very unlikely that there will be an intervention by the United Nations or any other similar body and the regime knows this. The UN Security Council is, as usual, unable to agree. Sorry to ask this question: what certainty is there that the country would be better governed by the MDC?
bruce, Apt, France
He has been beaten and tortured. He has shown courage in the face of a very real threat to his life while giving up everything to bring freedom and basic human rights to Zimbabwe. No words could be truer when he said, 'MDC has done everything humanly possible.' You are the People's president Morgan
Dee, Manchester,
What is happening in Zim is shameful & sad. I think Mr Tsvangirai made the right decision by pulling out of the bloodly run-off elections. But the end is still far. I hope the the SA leadership, SADC, AU and UN can help in the coming negotiations. We don't want another Iraq in Africa with invasions.
Nomsa, Johannesburg, South Africa
Nothing can embarass Mbeki and just now he will claim that quiet diplomacy worked forgetting the thousands of deaths carried out by Mugabe and the poverty that now exists. Mbeki has watched over a process in Zimbabwe much worse than apartheid.South Africa is going the same way. The signs are there
Frank, Pretoria, South Africa
perhaps Zimbabwe will go back to how it was before the Europeans went there. apparently that is what Mugabe wants and maybe it would be a good thing but why should an Englishman care what goes on thousands of miles away?
peter c, Devizes, wessex
Mugabe will now 'win' a new term in conformity with the country's constitution. However morally deplorable this situation may be, this legal legitimacy will inevitably be used as a powerful argument to brand efforts to unseat him as illegal. The day of collapse may a long way off yet.
William C, Hong Kong,
Peter Johnstone - comforting to us all that you are still so self satisfied about the huge risks you took to save the people of South Africa.
Aubrey Sonnenberg, Sydney , Australia
I endorse Peter Johnstone's comments. We personally were arrested and spent the entire 1981 Springbok tour protesting in order to help win South Africa's freedom from apartheid. Mbeki's gutless refusal to aid the defenceless people of Zimbabwe is sickening and must shame the decent people of SA.
Alan Wilkinson, Russell, New Zealand
Disgusted with South Africa's lack of leadership on this one. Some of us here risked our own wellbeing to protest apartheid in the 70's & 80's. Not embarassed about that (Mandela's freedom made it all worthwhile), but Mbeki's pandering to Mugabe is sickening. Mugabe is now Amin without the jokes.
Peter Johnstone, Christchurch , New Zealand
David of Bathurst: the SADC and the AU certainly can ignore the fact that Mugabe inspired violence caused the pullout! They have ignored, or at best, dismally wrung their hands at the violence but can you envisage the South African leadership actually condeming Mugabe's actions? Don't think so!
Richard, Melbourne, australia
Sad, but probably the best decision. Wonder what SADC and AU are going to do now? They cannot ignore the fact that the violence on Mugabe's part forced the pullout. Will they recognise a victory by default? In their decision you will see the future of Africa.
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia