Michael Evans, Defence Editor
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Two separate contingency plans for military action in Zimbabwe are held by the Ministry of Defence,The Times has learnt, although the Government insisted yesterday that intervention was not “a plausible course”.
One plan involves the deployment of troops into Zimbabwe to resolve a humanitarian crisis. The other is to provide military support if a national evacuation order to help British residents to leave the country was implemented.
The plans were drawn up as part of a general request for military options ordered by the Defence Crisis Management Organisation of the MoD. The military plans assume that a neighbouring African country would agree to play host to British troops and transport aircraft. Defence sources acknowledged that such an agreement in the current climate was unlikely.
Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon, the former international envoy, who gave warning yesterday of the risk of genocide in Zimbabwe, toldThe Times that if military intervention was agreed by the international community Britain could not take the lead role because of its colonial past. Lord Ashdown said that if genocide was threatened military intervention would have to be considered. “But it could not be undertaken without widespread support from Zimbabwe’s neighbours, in particular South Africa,” he said.
The main burden would have to fall on the neighbouring countries, with neither Britain nor the United States playing a leading role, he added.
Lord Ashdown and Lord Carrington, the former Foreign Secretary, who led the negotiations that brought white rule in Rhodesia to an end, paving the way for the birth of Zimbabwe, said that the African Union was the ideal organisation to deal with President Mugabe.
Lord Ashdown pointed to action taken by the African Union in March when 400 troops from Tanzania and Sudan landed in the rebel-held island of Anjouan in the Indian Ocean – part of the three-island Union of the Comoros – and ousted Mohamed Bacar, who had seized power in a 2001 coup and who held flawed elections last year.
Lord Carrington said: “Any military intervention by the British would be regarded – not just by Zimbabwe but by all the neighbouring African countries – as a return to colonisation. The real solution lies with the Africans themselves and there are signs that neighbouring countries are getting worried.”
When asked yesterday about possible British military intervention Lord Malloch-Brown, the Foreign Office Minister, said: “It’s not a plausible course and would not enjoy international support. I have not heard anyone here or in any other capital suggest military action is a solution.”
Major-General Julian Thompson, who commanded 3 Commando Brigade Royal Marines in the Falklands conflict in 1982, said action against the Zimbabwe military would be relatively straightforward, but the problem would be getting the troops there.
He said: “I think the Zimbabwean Army and police force would collapse and the population would treat an intervention force as liberators – but would any of the neighbouring African countries give us flying rights over their territory?”
Referring to Ian Smith’s Unilateral Declaration of Independence in Rhodesia in 1965, he said that the colonial powers in the region at the time had refused Britain flying rights – “and today it would be Zimbabwe’s neighbours who would turn us down”.
The former Royal Marine added: “Even if it was decided to use, say, Mozambique’s airspace without permission to reach Zimbabwe, what would the mission be? Would it be to kill Mugabe or put him in prison? – and what about all the generals who support him, what would happen to them? These are the sort of questions the Chief of the Defence Staff would ask if he was given an order from Gordon Brown to send troops to Zimbabwe.
“I think military intervention is morally justified, but we won’t do it because Mugabe keeps on saying that British colonialists are behind the trouble. So if we took part it would be seen as a self-fulfilling prophesy,” he added.
Any involvement by British troops would place further strain on the Armed Forces. Two of the principal go-anywhere brigades are already committed. The 2nd Battalion and the 3rd Battalion of The Parachute Regiment, part of 16 Air Assault Brigade, are serving in Afghanistan, and 3 Commando Brigade Royal Marines takes over in Afghanistan in the autumn.
Harare’s armed forces
25,000 Army personnel
4,000 Air force
21,800 Paramilitary
£79 million 2006 defence budget
3.8% Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (2006)
45 Number of combat-capable aircraft
40 Number of main battle tanks, mostly nonoperational
80 Armoured infantry fighting vehicles
85 Number of armoured personnel carriers
242 Number of artillery pieces
18-24 Years of age for compulsory military service Sourcesthe Military Balance 2008, IISS; CIA World Factbook
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South Africa has a vested interest in a healthy Zimbabwe. If military intervention becomes necessary, SA must take the lead. Africa solving African issues. Zim is paralysed until Mugabe and Co. are retired.
Sean, London, UK
If U.K leaves it in the hands of the South African goverment to liberate the people of Zimbabwe, I have some bad news. If the West does not want to use force to remove force, then at least put real pressure on Mugabe's many friends, like smart sanctions on members of the SA cabinet.
wim kotze, johannesburg, south africa
What a mistake this would be you evacuate your nationals and leave a repressive regime to murder the people, to this day the west's selfish ambitions are still there remember Rwanda, the moment you will eneter Zimbabwe will be the end of that country. Sad that some people still think force works.
George Grant Fitzgerald, Harare, ZImbabwe
I think Mugabe is acting like a Ghost, as if he is not Zimbabwean, and is getting mud. Let him do that has plained, but hand of Lord God will act on him.let ask God to take over Zimbabwe.
Emmanuel Sandram, Blantyre, Malawi
Believe it or not we have contingency plans for evacuating UK and other entitled citizens from trouble spots all over the world - a sound precaution - I used to have update a number of them in my time - Ther have been a number of times over the years with citizens coming home courtesy of the forces.
Jim, London, UK
It is incongruous to read the UK politicians and military chiefs are holding back from intervention in Zimbabwe because they feel that such action would not have international support. What has changed since March 2003? It will change again when USA madmen order GB to bomb Iran.
Brontus Horace, Truro, UK
People should not fall hook ,line and sinker for the propaganda that a military intervention is the ideal.The majority of Zimbabweans will not view such action as liberation and will fight back.Reports on the ground from Zimbabwe indicate that people are now very angry at this outside interference.
Davis, Manchester,
Yes it would be 'easy' to invade zimbambwe...the big task would be how you would ever get out. Never learn from history. Mugambe would love UK to re-colonize zim again.
jesee itotian, newcastle, uk
A large scale 'Private Military Force' similar to the Security outfits working in Iraq and Afghanistan seems like a viable option. It doesnt commit any particular country to solve the situation in Zim, but a 30,000 man private army Im quite sure could restore Zimbabwae back to the people
John Kiddle, Olympia WA, USA
The French do not have the same problems as our wet PC addicts in Goverment. They go in , do the job , and there are no recriminations afterwards
swisschris, New Malden, UK
I bet Gordon wishes he didnt oversee all those cuts to the Army and RAF now, because we can't actually do anything to help.
What a surprise, politicians who are so short sighted cutting defence capabilities, yet all along revert back to using them, it is pathetic.
Evan, London,
We didn't hear these arguments against intervention for Sierra Leone, another former colony. The French wouldn't be wringing their hands if it were their ex- colony, we have a greater obligation to intervene in Zim than Iraq.
Steven, Dunedin, New Zealand
Zimbabwe is a lost cause, Britain has no intention of military intervention, its ties to South Africa are more important, it would be to costly for no return, except if Mugabe was deposed by a private military force, which would be a solution.
Peter MacDonald, Auckland, New ZEALAND
its a great tactic Mugabes come up with- using political correctness to stop us from intervening in Zim. they have already begun murdering members of the opposition, how much more will it take for us to do something? is it more important for us to not look like colonialists or is it to defend lives
will, grimsby, uk
Forget what the World thinks, it is much more important to do the right thing, there is nothing wrong with Britain going in and restoring the rule of law and getting out, it's not colonizing the country, we cannot sit aside and let this happen. People and dying and suffering.
Farai, Harare, Zimbabwe
What can UK services expect to do with its 'Bare-Bones' Forces.
If Brown + Co want to justify this sort of action..then they need to start building up our Armed Forces and stop the rot.
kirk, Rotherham, UK
So the UK government is worried about being called colonialist if they liberated Zimbabwe.
Africa thrived on colonialism, and prospered, disease was was under control.
I was under the impression this Labour government cared about black people,but I must have it wrong.
Richard Partridge, Ruislip, UK
"The Zimbabwean Army would collapse and the population would treat us as liberators".
We learn nothing from history then?
Paul, Singapore,
Mbeki may well be a clever fellow, but he is quite incapable of fixing the situation. Mugabe is also a clever fellow and has established the idea that this is a struggle between him (saviour of Zimbabwe) and those who would return Zimbabwe to colonial rule. This ensures Mbeki's support.
Martin, Newmarket, Suffolk
Intervention would be a colossal error. Mugabe is a monster who is clever enough to have created a situation so toxic that we would be stuck there for decades, and then would just end up taking the blame for Zimbabwe's suffering.
I hear Mkebe is a clever fellow. Let him fix it.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
As an ex British infantryman I would much prefer to see our boys and girls liberate Zimbabwe and its starving people, than make American Buisnessman richer by supporting there financial rape of Iraq
charlie, Wellington, newzealand
Ashdown & Carrington reckon the African Union will sort out Mugabe, do they? They offer as proof the landing of a few troops on a flyspeck island, to overcome three men and a dog. A shame to admit we have let Mugabe win, but we have no real incentive to spill our own blood.
Paul Francis, Brisbane, Australia
Ashdown: "If genocide was threatened military intervention would have to be considered...but Britain could not take the lead role because of its colonial past".
That's like saying if there's an ongoing genocide in the Philipines, America would not take the lead role in stopping it.
Dead wrong
Eric, Boston, USA