Analysis: Jonathan Clayton
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It was a day when President Mugabe must have realised that the tide in Africa had turned against him. As Nelson Mandela joined the chorus of international criticism of his regime, almost all of his last, long-time allies finally presented a united front and called for tomorrow’s election to be postponed.
Although leaders from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) were merely repeating what the rest of the world has already said, it was one of the toughest and most significant statements ever issued by the group.
Before the crisis in Zimbabwe, few people in the West would have heard of SADC. The 14-member grouping, which now holds the fate of millions of Zimbabweans in its hands, has been described as one large dysfunctional family, myriad bitter historical rivalries hidden for years by a convenient unity against “Western imperialism”.
It was set up in 1980 with the main aim of co-ordinating development projects to lessen economic independence on South Africa, then ruled by the apartheid regime.
Margaret Thatcher treated the club with disdain, accusing its leaders of secretly trading with South Africa at the same time as calling on Western powers to cut economic ties. This cut little ice with the likes of Tanzania’s Socialist leader Julius Nyerere and Zambia’s Kenneth Kaunda, towering figures in the independence movement, who would riposte that it was Britain that was the master of double standards. London, they were fond of emphasising, did nothing when Ian Smith declared independence to prolong white rule in Rhodesia, but wanted immediate action when President Mugabe stepped out of line.
Similar rhetoric has hidden SADC’s divisions, which Mr Mugabe has cleverly exploited to prevent any regional criticism of his actions. However, as the days of colonialism have faded into history and a generation of more pragmatic young leaders has emerged, the mask of unity has slipped and now – over Zimbabwe – it has almost fallen off completely.
President Mwanawasa of Zambia, the group’s chairman, is typical of the new type of African leader more interested in the present than past battles. Last week he publicly expressed his frustration with the lack of progress in resolving the crisis and openly criticised SADC’s mediator, President Mbeki of South Africa.
At the heart of the row was SADC’s reluctance, epitomised by Mr Mbeki’s so-called quiet diplomacy, to criticise one of its own – particularly a state under fire from the West.
Mr Mugabe may have become the grouping’s unlikely saviour. His determination to cling to power at all costs and subsequent bloody crackdown on opponents led even his closest allies in SADC to turn against him.
The extent of his human rights abuses led to Mr Mandela abandoning his policy of not commenting on current affairs and criticising recent events in Zimbabwe – a move that will be welcomed across the world and pile even more pressure on the hapless Mr Mbeki.
Even the ANC – which for years would not criticise a liberation struggle leader of Mr Mugabe’s stature – has made clear that it has had enough of Mr Mugabe’s antics. Mr Mbeki may still be reluctant to criticise the Zimbabwean President, but the ANC and its new leader Jacob Zuma, who is set to succeed Mr Mbeki next year, are now lined up alongside Morgan Tsvangirai, a former trade unionist who is much more appealing to the party’s left wing.
Angola’s decision to throw its lot in with the antiMugabe camp is the most significant development – the two countries were inextricably linked in the fight against colonialism – while Tanzania, once the exiled home of Zanu, is now ruled by the young President Kikwete, who has no time for Mr Mugabe’s posturing and appeals to the “revolution”.
What the neighbours think
Angola
SADC’s most influential country after South Africa and Mr Mugabe’s closest ally. The two countries worked closely together in their respective guerrilla wars and more recently in themed-1990s moved into neighbouring Congo together to prevent the overthrow of Laurent Kabila, the then President. Their armies also looted the country of much of its mineral wealth
Namibia
An old Mugabe ally that fell out with him two years ago when it offered him a retirement home near the capital Windhoek so as to allow an alternative Zanu (PF) leadership to emerge. Still opposed to the opposition taking power, it wants to see a change at the top for reasons of regional stability
South Africa
President Thabo Mbeki has been reluctant to criticise his Zimbabwean counterpart for historical and ideological reasons. The position of SADC’s most important state has been weakened by internal divisions within the ruling African National Congress (ANC), but the left wing is now dominant and said that enough is enough
Zambia
Another close ally, but mistrusted by President Mugabe because of its previous support for his great rival Joshua Nkomo and his Zapu movement which was ultimately merged to form Zanu (PF)
Tanzania
Historically close to President Mugabe. Socialist President Julius Nyerere supported Zanu during the fight against white minority rule in what was then Rhodesia. Allowed it to have military bases for its hard-core Chinese-trained guerrilla fighters. One of the most significant defectors
Mozambique
A very close ally, but still one of the poorest countries in the world and desperate to stop more refugees from Zimbabwe flooding across its border. It keeps quiet, but will go with the majority. It has also benefited from the arrival of many white farmers from Zimbabwe
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