Jonathan Clayton
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Moments after formally agreeing to enter talks on a power-sharing deal, President Mugabe cautioned against outside interference. “As we embark on the programme of negotiating the way forward ... we shall be doing this as Zimbabweans ... with South Africa,” he declared.
Less than 24 hours after Monday's signing ceremony, the European Union - showing an exquisite sense of timing - agreed to broaden sanctions against Zimbabwe. EU foreign ministers said that it was important to keep up the pressure. Bernard Kouchner, the French Foreign Minister, said: “Sanctions have played a role. We have to keep up that role.”
He could not be more wrong. What the West, particularly Britain and the US, fails to understand is that it is precisely that pressure which has allowed Mr Mugabe to defy predictions and remain at the helm of the country way beyond his sell-by date.
Sanctions - including travel bans on regime officials and the freezing of their overseas assets - have been an unmitigated failure. Most of the elite have been able to ignore them; Mr Mugabe is still in power and the country is in ruins.
For years it has been a perennial refrain from the ruling Zanu (PF) party that Morgan Tsvangirai is little more than a puppet of former imperialists. Many people believe, with commodity prices at record highs, that Britain wants to get its hands back on Zimbabwe's mineral riches before China takes them. Mr Mugabe has exploited that unease adeptly for years. The West has always proved a willing helper: talking tough, threatening action and making clear its obvious distaste for any deal other than the former “freedom fighter's” departure. By so doing it has strengthened Mr Mugabe and undermined those regional voices wanting him to step down.
The West's failure to heed the lesson from past errors and adopt a different strategy lies at the heart of repeated failures of its diplomacy since the current Zimbabwean crisis began three months ago. It led directly to humiliation in the Security Council ten days ago when Russia and China vetoed a resolution imposing tough sanctions on Harare.
That vote also reflected the reality of shifting power alliances on the continent. Britain, in particular, has been slow to appreciate how little it can influence events in its former colony unless it has the backing of neighbouring states.
President Mbeki, who has been ridiculed for his “quiet diplomacy” on Zimbabwe, made it clear that he believed a UN vote on sanctions would make it even more difficult to get talks started on a government of national unity. Consequently he lobbied hard and succeeded in obtaining the veto. The vote also demonstrated how much Africa now matters to Russia and China, both of which have built up huge commercial interests on the continent in recent years.
Even Zimbabwe's most critical neighbours, Zambia and Botswana, favoured the South African approach to the frantic “Mugabe must go - now” tub- thumping of London and its European allies. Commentators argue that few people in the region believe Mr Tsvangirai and his MDC party hold the answer to the country's problems. More importantly, they know that Mr Mugabe's henchmen in the security services will only let him retire as a part of a broader negotiated settlement.
It is far too early for Mr Mbeki's approach to be vindicated, but a look at the memorandum of understanding signed by Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai shows how far he may have come.
The agenda for talks includes a new constitution, the promotion of equality, national healing and cohesion and unity. At the signing ceremony, the Opposition was upbeat while Mr Mugabe was resigned. “Everyone accepts Mugabe will not be there when the talks are over ... well, that is unless the EU and Gordon Brown keep trying to help speed things along,” said one exasperated South African diplomatic source.
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David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
If the latest article SA wants RM to surrender is true, then it is exactly what Mugable is fighting against. Zim land 2b returned to Whites or compensated. West donor nations will return and MDC will only be a puppet govt. Is this not indirect colonization?
2807
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Lim....the west wants sanctions because they have SOME morals. China and Russia want access to Africa's resources so they will turn a blind eye to human rights violations to "keep in" with Africa...and they're not noted for human rights either. And Mugabe hurts his people more than sanctions can!
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
If the latest article "South Africa tells Robert Mugabe to surrender" is true, and it happens, there's proof that sanctions work. This was not jsut due to sanctions, but they played a part in this.
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
Lim Malaysia.
The west calls for sanctions because we have a clear moral understanding of the difference between right and wrong. Posters here are mostly independent thinkers. Lobbying own government to do the proper thing is the democratic process. That is what we do to get change in the world
Colin, Carmarthen, United Kingdom
David Ashton, Bathurst , Australia
I am tired too, But please tell me why it is the only the West who calls for sanctions. Is it because the West is rich, powerful and nosy? Do you really think it hurts the target and not the poor. The hurt will trickle down to the poor.
270708
Lim , Johor Bahru, Malaysia
I am sick and tired of people who say the sanctions hurt the poor. Targeted sanctions affect the govt figures who are hurting the poor far more than sanctions ever could. Sanctions are one good way of keeping up the pressure for change and letting Mugabe & co know they are way out of line.
David Ashton, Bathurst , Australia
The very fact that Mugabe cautions against outside interference means that the sanctions DO work. Sanctions alone are not going to bring Mugabe into line but that does not mean they are useless. They should be lifted ONLY when a free & fair election is held AND the results respected by Mugabe.
David Ashton, Bathurst , Australia
Why should the West learn when they never acknowledge failure?
Brum, Montreal,
Let Zimbabweans decide their own destiny without outside interference? Is that a lot to ask? Sanctions only affect the poor and vulnerable and not the elites.
Davis, Manchester,
I will say it again - sanctions hurt. They are like ignoring someone and refusing to talk to them. The criminal junta is immensely egotistic, and this kind of thing deeply upsets them. If for no other reason, it's a major reason for maintaining sanctions! Though I think they do work anyway.
Richard Flynn, Huntingdon, UK
Jonathan Clayton asserts that it is Western pressure that has kept Mugabe in power. Surely it is Mugabes brutal suppression of the opposition and the readiness of people like Clayton to allow him to get away with it?
Rose Benton
Co-ordinator
Zimbabwe Vigil
Rose Benton, London, UK
Once again Africa has created a perfect Franz Fanon scenario, truly you are the 'wretched of the earth' . As for the gutless opposition in Zimbabwe, it's hardly surprising you have the government you deserve. You have exchanged evil white masters for greedy Black masters - enjoy your 'freedom'.
Winston Smith, Edinburgh, UK
If not sanctions or some sort of military intervention, what other means of pressuring Mugabe would the author of this article suggest? Should Western leaders come on bended knees before this selfserving, brutal dactator and cajole him into giving up power that he craves with such relish?
Ralph Hoarau, Vienna, Austria
Finally, a sensible article from the UK. It is a classical scenario - whenever an era changes, those who were beneficiaries of that era are the last ones to notice the change. Sometimes it looks the Gordon Brown and co. still believe in the power Cool Britannia had when they were teenagers.
Charles Kanengo, Los Angeles,
Too much faith is placed in Mbeki's ability to move things without any pushing. Mbeki has shown himself to be biased in favour of Mugabe and it is precisely because the west has left him to it that he has done nothing of substance. Even his latest "accomplishment" is only an agreement to talk.
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
So true. As Zimbabweans we need to know what the sanctions imposed on Mugabe and his cronnies in 2002 have achieved. Six years down the line we have not been told how much money was frozen in EU bank accounts or even traced to have left accounts in the EU to Asia or South Africa / the assets etc etc
chihera, guildford, uk
Agricultural subsidies were given to EU and American Farmers whilst African Governments were ordered through the IMF& WB programs. Now the EU wants to give Africa funding, for what, its coming at the time S.Arabia and UAE is pouring billions into Africa contract farming, or the timing is suspicious.
Thuthukani Mkhize, Harare,
Although Abramovic was staying in the resort town of Victoria Falls, he was a guest of the Hwange Colliery Limited amid revelations that the Russian oil magnate is keen to invest in Zimbabwe.While the Hwange Colliery executives might have opted to keep a tight lid on Abramovic's tour.
Thuthukani Mkhize, Harare,