R W Johnson in Johannesburg
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THE president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, has been warned by Thabo Mbeki, the South African president, that he faces prosecution for the crimes he has committed during his 28 years in office unless he signs a deal to give up all effective power.
Mbeki, who has done all he can to shield and support Mugabe for the past eight years, has come under overwhelming western pressure and has had to tell Mugabe that he could no longer protect him and his key cronies from being charged by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The power-sharing talks between Mugabe’s Zanu-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are shrouded in secrecy. But The Sunday Times has learnt that Mugabe, who has vowed that Tsvangirai will never be in government and that “only God can remove me from power”, faces humiliation over the terms of the deal that he will be forced to sign next month.
He will remain as president in name only and all real power will be held by a 20-member cabinet under Tsvangirai as prime minister. The opposition MDC will have 11 cabinet posts to nine for Mugabe’s Zanu-PF.
All Mugabe’s senior officials in the army, police and intelligence services, who have unleashed a campaign of terror since the MDC won a disputed victory in the elections held in March, will be dismissed.
Observers caution, however, that bringing Mugabe to justice could be protracted since Zimbabwe does not recognise the jurisdiction of the ICC. Any investigation would require a referral from the United Nations security council, which would probably be blocked by China or Russia.
The transitional government will have close ties to a group of western donor nations known as the Fishmongers Group, set up a year ago on Britain’s initiative. It includes the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Canada and Australia. China declined an invitation to join.
The decisive showdown came last week when Mugabe realised that his power was broken. On Monday Mbeki’s emissary, Sidney Mufamadi, a South African cabinet minister, arrived in Harare to read the riot act to Zanu-PF officials.
According to the officials who were present, he told them bluntly: “You don’t have a government. You can’t summon your parliament. You have no legitimate president and thus you can have no cabinet. You cannot behave as you have been doing. Real talks have to start right away.”
The Zanu-PF negotiators, still congratulating themselves on Mugabe’s spurious “victory” in last month’s stolen election, were taken aback.
Worse was to follow. Mbeki flew to Harare and said that Mugabe and Tsvangirai must meet to sign a memorandum of understanding committing themselves to serious negotiations and to share power.
The talks, he insisted, must be concluded within two weeks and the two men must meet, shake hands and sign the memorandum.
Mugabe had never been willing to meet Tsvangirai, let alone shake his hand. According to leading Zanu-PF sources, he is frightened of going on trial for human rights crimes, particularly since an arrest warrant was issued against Omar Bashir, Sudan’s president, earlier this month. Under Mbeki’s pressure Mugabe gave in.
He agreed that Tsvangirai should come to State House, the president’s official residence. Tsvangirai refused to attend, saying that to do so would be to acknowledge Mugabe as the legitimate president of Zimbabwe: he would sign only on neutral ground.
Mugabe had to be persuaded to leave State House and was driven to Rainbow Towers, the former Sheraton hotel in central Harare, to sign the document and glumly shake hands with a triumphant Tsvangirai.
The power of the western donor nations has grown as the Zimbabwean economy has catapulted towards meltdown. Hyperinflation means that a newly introduced Z$100 billion note is not enough to buy a loaf of bread.
The latest harvest has been dismal, bread may soon run out and widespread famine is a threat. The World Food Programme estimates that by early next year 5.1m people could be facing starvation.
The Fishmongers Group, which is based in Holland, stands powerfully in the wings and in effect has a veto over the negotiations. Planning is already far advanced for a post-Mugabe future, with individual countries agreeing to focus their efforts on education, health and other sectors. A total of £2 billion has been pledged to date.
The transitional government will be obliged to follow edicts laid down by the group. They will insist that the new government gives full and equal access to food aid, plans a return to financial stability, restores the rule of law with an independent judiciary and respects property rights. This will mean that the farms stolen by Mugabe and his cronies will either have to be restored to their owners or compensation will be paid.
The group will also insist that the government be committed to freedom of the press and hold fair elections within 18 months. The group will not release even a dollar to a government that includes anyone guilty either of gross corruption or human rights violations. Zanu-PF will be hard pushed to find nine ministers who qualify.
The new dispensation will bring to a halt the campaign of terror unleashed by Mugabe since he was defeated in the first round of the presidential elections in March.
A diplomatic source said: “The toughest part of the negotiations is going to be the question of immunity from prosecution for Mugabe and, say, the top 20 members of the junta.”
Another diplomat said: “It’s ironic. Mbeki could and should have brought Mugabe to heel eight years ago. It would have saved a lot of lives.”
Professor Lawrence Schlemmer, South Africa’s leading social scientist, said that the deal would be of “epochal importance” to the whole southern African region: “The West could have just walked away from another African disaster. Instead, they are showing a huge commitment to democracy in this region.”
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Although this is really great news no one should ever forget the inaction of Mbeki, He could have saved countless suffering and death had he done the job he signed up to.
Peter, Vancouver BC., Canada
While I would like to believe this story is true - why is no other news source reporting a similar version of events? And most reporting the exact opposite?
Emma, Leeds,
This article has dramatised this whole issue of talks and power sharing. Its as if the reporter has been one of the delegates in the meeting in SA. As far as we are concerned, the nation of Zim hasnt been briefed on the outcome of the talks; on how many cabinet ministers will be appointed etc
D.Dube, Plumtree, Zimbabwe
Tanaiwa is right, this story does rather seem to have been proved wrong by current events. Thabo Mbeki does have a history of not following through when he (rarely) does something right. He got the march election right, then failed to insist that the results were announced and followed.....
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
Your paper seems to over-dramatise when reporting about Zimbabwe.A few days ago you reported that a deal which could see Tsvangirai appointed as Executive prime minister,Mugabe as titular president with the MDC getting 11 ministrial posts while Zanu PF getting 9.This is contrary to current events.
Tanaiwa, Northampton, Northamptonhire
gI used to visit Zimbabwe in the seventies and eighties,lush, green, self suffcient now as so often happens in Arica, one big mess.Then out comes the begging bowl !!!!.
Thabo Mbeki should hang his head in shame along with 90% of his cabinet it could have been prevented all the refugees everything.
gordon f , glasgow, scotland
Interesting developments, but will Africa learn from it. The culture is just to different and always, but always the blame game is played. It seems that nobody want to accept the responsibility of what transpires. If the acceptance of accountability is not engendered, they will keep on failing.
Fred, Pretoria, South-Africa
thanks to Thabo Mbeki ,at list he is doing some good for poor
Zimbabweans , Mugabe and his crew have destroyed that beautiful country ,justice should be done and they should be made to answer for all those Ndebele peole they murdered in the 80"s ,and the latest elction murders .
ROY, Leeds, uk
Roger Ndaba, you hit the spot about Rhodies and Ian Smith. A lot of people keep blaming the white colonialists for all the ills in Africa, but the facts show that the whites handed over in most cases, fully functioning countries with good infrastuctures. Look what happened 30-40 years later.
Gil, Funchal, Portugal
The sad fact is that the leadership in Zim simply reflects us the population. This simplistic notion that once we rid ourselves of Bob things will be alright is rubbish. How did the Rhodesians build a great country was it because of Smith or because of the patriotism and idustriousness of the Rhodie
Roger Ndaba , St Albans, UK
The negotiater's first preocupation was about staying in a more luxurious 5* hotel. Can you believe this?. The country is in an economic meltdown, with millions starving, and yet these selfish people only want the best for themseves!. May God help Africa, to get rid of these vultures.
Gil, Funchal, Portugal
Its carma. Mugabe! Your time is coming and not quick enough!!
Cal, Perth, Australia
Glory be to God. There is hope. At last Mbeki has woken from slumber. Mugabe should be allowed to fade away because it is so sad. Look at the injustice that happened to the white farmers. It is irrelevant who farms the land, so long as Africans have not risen above premevial crudity in farming.
adonis, la, us
Remember the Geneva talks in the 70s?
Smith and his delegates refused to stay in a 5 star hotel because of the shortage of Forex in the country. He refused to spend more than the official holiday allowance $450 - it would be unfair to the populous. they walked to the conference centre.
Ian Robinson, Ndola, Zambia
I'll believe it when I see it...If true maybe Africa is finally turning the corner and its popultion can truelly enjoy individual democtratic rights and the accountability that should properly flow from those acting on a peoples behalf back to the people. Then they can enjoy their time in the sun.
Mark Stewart, Grandvaux, Switzerland
Mugabe will be dealt with later please save my country and the people of Zim which is the most important thing to do at the moment. Do whatever you want with mugabe, he should be very sorry for all the people he killed to get back into power
sally, manchester,
Charan...ref the bickering over minibars....sounds suspiciously like reports of that meeting in the train on the Vic Falls Bridge. They drank the bar dry there too apparently.
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
Yes, Mbeki is responsible for many lives in Zim - mostly those damaged young minds that may come back to haunt us in years to come in the form of bitter vengances. I wonder how many of the skilled Zimbabweans will return home now that they have settled elsewhere - 8 years is a long time!
Gunduane, Sydney, Australia
This news too hard to believe we often hears such stories about Zimbabwe when some thing worse happens. Sound like a red herring. Sound too much the the Zimbabwe Herald what ever the Herald sais believe the opposite to be true.
kevin, Greendale, Harare, Zimbabwe
"Any investigation would require a referral from the United Nations security council, which would probably be blocked by China or Russia." The same two culprits who have shielded the Mugabe regime from UNSC resolutions and sanctions. A Professional Courtesy among dictatorships, one might say.
David J. Crook, Coatesville, Pa, USA
Can this be true, or just wishful thinking? I hope the former. The power of the West must be brought to bear outside the Security Council. Mugabe has outmaneuvered his opponents repeatedly; this time he must be cornered and made to pay in full for his despotic, murderous tyranny. Yes please!
James S, Mombasa, Kenya
Slowly but surely Africa's "Big Men" are being brought, kicking and screaming, into the real world of accountability, thanks to western resolve and commitment to doing the right thing.
Marvin Caldwell-Barr, Kempton Park, South Africa
Yet through the hollow eyes of death I see life peering.
Shakespeare.
David Wheeler, London, UK
I hope this is true. I hear that the conference started with petty bickering about the 3 star venue and its lack of minibar facilities. They have now moved to a 5 * site. The MDC delegation have been made abundantly aware that people do not want a settlement in which Mugabe retains executive power.
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
Mugabe and those of his guilty cronies must still be charged with genocide for the 1980s Ndebele massacres. Africa must learn that political murders do not pay, even if it did get Mugabe and Mbeki and the ANC into power.
B J Deller, Marbella, Spain
mugabe should not be allowed to get away with this for over a decade the country and it's citzens have suffered under his and his henchmen.there has to be justice for those who have died andlost their entire lives he cannot go scott free.
roy, ferreira de zezere, portugal
Mbeki, what about South Africa? Or are you going to wait also till it has reached the proportions of Zim? I do not think you deserve praise now as you have a lot of blood on your hands.
Ametad, London, UK
It;s sad that Zimbabwe has had to wait all this time for a solution to it's problems. What is important now is to implement the agreement as soon as possible. And let the question of the ICC wait. Mugabe's time will come but let's sort the country out first.
Mike C, London, UK
this is pure political fiction.who has caused more troubles in the world Robert Mugabe or George Bush?what rank hypocrisy.i hope China & Russia will continue to grow militarily to block these bullish western institutions.
Paulo, Perth, Australia
Thank God for the West. If this debacle had been left to China and Russia, who don't give a damn for human rights, the deterioration would continue until there's nothing left. Mbeki should be ashamed of himself. That old African/Marxist mindset has had it's day. May democracy flourish. God Bless Zim
F. Swinton, Oxford, UK
Mbeki reacted so so late, The situation in southern African region is going crazy. I hope they can live the young Generation rule the country. We need peace in our Region.
Logaritmo, Maputo-Moçambique
Boaventura, maputo, moçambique
See how easy it was to sort this out, Mbeki?
So why the hell did you not do this 8 years ago?
David Ashton, Bathurst , Australia
I have my reservations about this news. If it's true, it shows that the economic meltdown as well as pressure and targeted sanctions by the West are beginning to take effect. Mugabe you have no way out except to give up power and hand the country over to the MDC and pray that the ICC doesn't get U
Gil, Funchal, Portugal
i agree with tthat Mbeki shoul have brought Mugabe down 8 years ago it would of saved many lives adults and childrens and expecially women being raped young children watchin their parents die in front them and then themselves being killed as well as thye do not agree with Mugabe lets hope it works
iram, london, uk