For millions of desperate Zimbabweans there were rising hopes last night that President Mugabe could finally be on the brink of surrendering if not his office then at least his monopoly on power.

Throughout yesterday, President Mbeki of South Africa chaired marathon talks in a Harare hotel between Mr Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader who won the presidential election in March but was excluded from office by vote rigging, violence and intimidation.

As the talks broke up in the early hours of today, both sides indicated that they had made progress. As he left the Rainbow Towers hotel, Mr Mugabe told reporters he was "confident" a deal was within reach. "We're not through yet, but we've taken a break," he said. Asked if there were sticking points, he answered: "There are always sticking points in any dialogue, but we are confident we will overcome."

Mr Tsvangirai left the hotel shortly afterward, saying Mbeki would "give a press statement on the issue" and refused further comment. However Tendai Biti, the party's secretary-general, nodded yes when asked if progress had been made. "I think we all need to pray," he said.

Mr Mugabe, Mr Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a smaller breakawy MDC faction who is also participating in the talks, had arrived at the hotel more than 13 hours before the talks finally broke up.

Mr Mugabe's demise has been predicted many times during his 28-year rule, but all parties appeared to agree yesterday that some sort of deal requiring him to share power with Mr Tsvangirai was within reach.

Zimbabwe's state-run media reported that in secret talks over the past week the two sides had reached a “common position” on key issues, including land distribution. Other sources were quoted as saying that a deal was just “one or two sticking points away”.

Arthur Mutambara said that a compromise agreement was close which, for all its limitations, “offered the best temporary measure to extricate the country from its worst situation”. He told AFP that Mbeki had first met all three individually before bringing them in together.

Speculation centred on an arrangement whereby Mr Mugabe would retain the presidency, which would give him immunity from prosecution for alleged crimes against humanity, but surrender much of his power to Mr Tsvangirai, who would become prime minister. The MDC and Mr Mugabe's Zanu (PF) party would both have a deputy prime minister, with one controlling the military, the other the police.

Mr Mugabe, 84, is a supremely cunning politician who has repeatedly outwitted Mr Tsvangirai in the past, and it remains to be seen whether this is just another ruse to buy time and keep Mr Mbeki on side.

Mr Mugabe's military and security chiefs would also have to approve any deal and they, too, would demand immunity from prosecution over years of brutal repression. But it is just conceivable that Mr Mugabe, whose country is collapsing around him, is suing for the best possible deal while he still has the authority to do so.

For Zimbabwe to recover from its desperate economic situation, however, he would have to cede enough power to secure the lifting of sanctions and a massive infusion of international aid. MDC officials have said that Mr Tsvangirai will accept nothing less than full executive power.

Zimbabwe's official inflation rate is 2.2 million per cent - the unofficial rate is higher - and the regime is struggling to pay the security forces on which it depends for its survival. It no longer has the hard currency to import fuel, food or paper and ink required to print enough new money. Zimbabwe's most basic services have all but collapsed. A third of the population, including most of the best-educated and productive citizens, have fled.

Once the breadbasket of Africa, Zimbabwe is now a country where millions survive on barely a bowl of sadza - mealie-meal porridge - a day, thanks to Mr Mugabe's seizure of 4,000 white-owned farms. Farms have reverted to vegetable patches, the electric bulb has given way to the oil lamp, and the wheel to the foot as the most common form of transport.

Even the doctored results of the March presidential election showed that Mr Tsvangirai beat Mr Mugabe, but with just under the 50 per cent of the vote required to win outright.

The MDC leader withdrew before the second round on June 27 after a sustained campaign of violence against MDC supporters left scores dead and thousands injured.

Mr Tsvangirai has said that he is prepared to work with moderate members of Zanu (PF) and grant Mr Mugabe immunity if that is the price of prising him from power.

On July 21 he and Mr Mugabe met face to face for the first time in a decade and agreed a framework for negotiations. Last week their deputies held talks. On Thursday the regime and the MDC issued a rare joint statement urging their supporters to refrain from violence.

Mr Mbeki flew to Harare on Saturday night and yesterday met Mr Mugabe, Mr Tsvangirai and Mr Mutambara separately before bringing them together. At one point flowers and chairs were taken into the hotel ballroom, suggesting some sort of ceremony might be imminent.

A power-sharing deal would represent vindication for Mr Mbeki, who has faced mounting international criticism for his failure to take a tougher line with a man whom he has long considered a father figure.

Next weekend he is due to host a summit of the increasingly restive Southern African Development Community, which appointed him as mediator more than a year ago.

Talks will resume later today.

The struggle for reform

1997 Morgan Tsvangirai organises a series of nationwide strikes against tax rises, provoking an attempt on his life by a group of war veterans loyal to Robert Mugabe, below

1999 Mr Tsvangirai forms the Movement for Democratic Change. Within months the MDC secures victory in a referendum to reject a draft constitution put up by Mr Mugabe

2000 Mr Mugabe's Zanu (PF) party narrowly clinches victory in parliamentary elections after squatters seize hundreds of white-owned farms

2002 Mr Tsvangirai is charged with high treason after being accused of plotting to assassinate Mr Mugabe. He is acquitted, but not before Mr Mugabe sweeps to victory in elections condemned as seriously flawed by the opposition and foreign observers

2005 Zanu (PF) wins two thirds of the votes in parliamentary polls that the MDC says are rigged. Later in the year Zanu (PF) wins a majority of seats in the newly created Senate after the MDC boycotts the poll

2007 Mr Tsvangirai suffers a suspected fractured skull, brain injury and internal bleeding after being arrested

2008 Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC claim victory after Zimbabweans go to the polls in March. When the election goes to a run-off, Mr Tsvangirai pulls out, branding it “a violent, illegitimate sham”

June 29 Mr Mugabe is declared winner and sworn in for five-year term. Three weeks later, Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai sign deal for formal talks

Sources: Times database, agencies

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