If Zimbabwe’s politicians had expected news of a power-sharing deal to elicit a wave of euphoria, they were to be disappointed yesterday as the world hedged its bets and waited to see how much power Robert Mugabe had really ceded to his bitter rival, Morgan Tsvangirai.

Details of the agreement will not be released until the formal signing ceremony on Monday, but it is already clear that Mr Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), will at best be sharing power with the man he defeated in the presidential election in March and may have signed up to an unworkable system of parallel governments. One Western diplomat said that it remained to be seen whether Mr Tsvangirai had been “suckered” by the wily octogenarian or started a process that would end in Mr Mugabe being sidelined. “The jury is out,” he said.

Analysts said that the West would not provide the massive assistance needed to rebuild the shattered Zimbabwean economy unless it was certain that Mr Tsvangirai was running the Government, and that Mr Mugabe was not using him as a front to have international sanctions lifted.

There were even doubts that the ceremony would take place on Monday. Sources in Harare did not believe that Mr Mugabe had won the approval of his military and security chiefs, who orchestrated the violence and who fear prosecution if he lost power.

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Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai must also agree some key but highly contentious details, including the distribution of ministries. Mr Tsvangirai is determined that the MDC should control the police but is prepared to let Mr Mugabe control the army.

Under the agreement Mr Mugabe will remain President and chair the 31-member Cabinet. Mr Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister and head a council of ministers comprising all the Cabinet except Mr Mugabe and his two Zanu (PF) vice-presidents.

MDC officials said that the council would run the country day to day and formulate policy, while the Cabinet would help with implementation. They insisted that Mr Mugabe would not have a veto. David Coltart, an opposition MP, said that while Mr Tsvangirai “does not have absolute power he does have substantial power”, and that the powers of Mr Mugabe would be “greatly reduced”.

Mr Tsvangirai believes that once he enters government he can rally the silent majority in the civil service and security forces who loathe Mr Mugabe, and establish himself as an alternative source of authority. Independent observers questioned whether it would work that way in practice. “Mr Mugabe doesn’t give things up easily, particularly power,” one observer said.

The Zanu (PF) party of Mr Mugabe will have 15 Cabinet seats, the MDC 13 and a breakaway MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara, 3. That means the combined MDC will have a majority of one but Mr Mugabe would need to win over only one member of the Mutambara faction for him to hold sway.

The two sides must also set aside a history of enmity if the Government is to work, especially as MDC ministers will be determined to reverse years of draconian security legislation, disastrous economic policies and media repression. An 18-month process of constitutional reform leading to elections will also begin. “Virtually all of the Cabinet ministers to be appointed [by the MDC] have at some stage in the last nine years been brutalised on the instructions of those they will now have to work with,” said Mr Coltart.

Eldred Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe, said: “It’s going to be like walking out of a landmine field while carrying a huge load.”

At the Central Methodist Church in Johannesburg, where 1,500 Zimbabwean exiles have taken refuge, Pamela Zinyengere, 28, said that Mr Mugabe had to surrender all power. “It is not good,” she said. “Tsvangirai must be the only one to govern the country so we can go back.”

Q & A

Who will be in charge?

This is still not clear - and may not even be clear next week. Robert Mugabe will remain President and will chair the Cabinet. Morgan Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister and will chair a Council of Ministers, which will contain almost all the Cabinet.

MDC officials said that the council would run the country and formulate policy and that Mr Mugabe would have no veto — the crucial point— but this has not been confirmed. Who emerges as the real decision- making body will determine who runs the country

Who will sit in the Cabinet?

There will be 15 members of the Zanu (PF) party of Mr Mugabe, 13 members of Mr Tsvangirai's MDC party and 3 members of Arthur Mutambara's MDC splinter group.

That gives the combined MDC factions a majority, although Mr Mugabe would need to win over only one MDC member to prevail

Who will control the muscle?

This has yet to be announced but the MDC is expected to take charge of the police while Mr Mugabe keeps control of the Army. Not all the police will like this but they would broadly fall into line.

The dreaded Central Intelligence Organisation, which at present reports directly to the President, is likely to be disbanded or restructured. Quite how the so-called war veterans of Mr Mugabe, whose worst excesses are ignored by the police, will respond to the new situation is hard to tell

Will the West give the new unity government the aid it desperately needs to rebuild a shattered country?

International donors will wait to see how the new arrangements work. They will need convincing that Mr Tsvangirai, and not Mr Mugabe, is in charge

Will anyone be punished for the crimes of Mr Mugabe's regime?

Probably not. Mr Mugabe will enjoy immunity from prosecution as President. His military and security chiefs will almost certainly demand similar immunity in return for supporting the deal

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