Zimbabwe’s bitter political rivals are expected to sign a landmark power-sharing agreement today designed to end months of violence and years of economic misrule.

President Mugabe and the Opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, are to initial the deal to set up a transitional government at a ceremony in Harare in the presence of regional heads of state, including South Africa’s President Mbeki, who mediated the accord.

Behind the inevitable back-slapping, handshakes and hugs, observers will strain to see who is smiling the most. They may find very few indeed.

The ruling Zanu (PF) and opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) both appear nervous about the future. Insiders in both parties remain split over whether the agreement – reached after weeks of negotiations – can end the country’s long decline, or whether it will simply open a new chapter in its misery.

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Mr Mugabe, whose policies are responsible for an 11 million per cent inflation rate, one million starving people and millions more living in penury as refugees outside Zimbabwe’s borders, remains President.

For many of his foes that is a huge failing of the accord. Others say that it was always unrealistic to expect a man who sees himself as “father of the nation” to leave office in one move. He has to go slowly and with dignity and – crucially – assure his hench-men in the security services that he is not abandoning them.

“This process has been slow, but the old crocodile’s teeth are slowly being pulled out one by one, and soon he will not able to bite back,” said one analyst close to the talks.

Others argue that Mr Tsvangirai is in danger of being hoodwinked by a superior political operator and could end up as a powerless Prime Minister overseeing a Cabinet devoid of any power. “He is there to get the West off Mugabe’s back, that is all. He will run rings around him,” said a senior Zambian diplomat close to the talks.

Signs of division and charges of betrayal within the MDC emerged even before the signing ceremony. If unchecked, these could be the deal’s undoing as Mr Mugabe, who once vowed that he would never share power with the Opposition, will not hesitate to take advantage.

Details of the accord will only be made official at the ceremony, but it is known that Mr Tsvangirai will become Prime Minister and chair a Council of Ministers, made up of most of the Cabinet. His party will have 13 Cabinet posts and Zanu (PF) 15.

However, Arthur Mutambara, the head of a small faction of the MDC, will have three Cabinet seats, opening up the possibility of horse-trading to undermine the new Prime Minister. Zanu (PF) also has two Vice-Presidents, whose roles are unclear. The arrangement runs for 18 months while the parties negotiate a constitution, under which fresh elections will follow. This could be the key to its future success or failure.

If a new constitution is adopted and truly free elections follow, the deal will be the moment Mr Mugabe’s brutal rule came to an end. There is little doubt he would suffer a crushing defeat in a truly free poll. Time and again, however, the wily former guerrilla leader has wriggled out of commitments to conduct such elections.

Some in the MDC maintain that it could have had a significantly stronger position if Mr Tsvangirai had not allowed himself to be bullied by Mr Mbeki, Mr Mugabe and Mr Mutambara, a senior diplomatic source said.

Western diplomats have expressed doubts that the deal will prevent Mr Mugabe from taking advantage of large inflows of donor finance.

How it should work

— Robert Mugabe will remain President but will have reduced powers. Morgan Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister with two Opposition deputies

— Two ceremonial Vice-Presidents will be drawn from Zanu (PF)

— The Opposition has demanded control of the police while allowing Mr Mugabe to control the military

Mr Mugabe will chair the Cabinet and Mr Tsvangirai will head a Council of Ministers

The MDC has a majority of one in the Cabinet, with 16 posts between the two factions to Zanu (PF)’s 15

Source: agencies

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