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A wave of alarm swept through middle-class South Africa last week as President Thabo Mbeki was sacked by the ruling African National Congress and replaced by Kgalema Motlanthe, who has already presided over sweeping cabinet changes.
The new president is still remembered as a communist militant who urged that the country’s youth be “taught to hate capitalism”.
The real winner in the coup against Mbeki is Jacob Zuma. He will lead the ANC into next April’s election and is strongly backed by the powerful Communist party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, both of which favour radical left-wing policies. Polls show that business confidence has slumped to a seven-year low.
There has long been considerable evidence of “white flight” to cities in Britain, Australia, America and New Zealand. It is estimated that up to 20% of South Africa’s whites have emigrated since the advent of democracy in 1994.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that Zuma’s rise, coupled with nationwide power cuts and a continuing crime wave, has led to a further massive brain drain. Polls show that 63% of South Africans have “seriously considered” emigration.
“Among my age group the chorus is absolutely insistent,” said Geoff Landsman, 25, a civil engineer. “You must go abroad. If at all possible equip yourself with a foreign passport. I have a Dutch one. I’ll leave by Christmas. I’m not saying I’ll never come back but I want to see if I can cut it abroad.”
Anna Davids, 62, an ophthalmologist, lamented: “There’s a whole generation missing. Look around. Where are the young white couples aged 25-45? At least two-thirds of them are gone.”
She said that affirmative action plans discouraged young whites from staying. “Everything’s loaded against young whites, no matter how well qualified they are.”
Crime, although said to be in decline, is still alarmingly high. Last year the country saw 18,487 murders, 36,190 rapes, 14,481 home invasions, 14,201 carjackings and 118,312 aggravated robberies.
Zuma has sought to calm the fears, but seems oblivious to the fact that appearing at celebrations as a Zulu warrior, replete with leopard skins and assegai, and singing “Mshini Wam” (Bring Me My Machine-gun) at party rallies does little to calm confidence.
Zapiro, the pen name of Jonathan Shapiro, South Africa’s favourite cartoonist, captured the mood last week with a drawing of Motlanthe being sworn in next to a heap of rubble with the wreckage of provincial government, investor confidence and the electricity supply system strewn high and the government itself teetering.
Wise voices caution against panic. “The ANC’s leaders are acutely aware that any hope of addressing the problems of poverty and unemployment depend on maintaining the country’s growth and stability,” said Frederik van Zyl Slabbert, the former opposition leader.
Professor Lawrie Schlemmer, South Africa’s leading social scientist, agreed: “The doom and gloom is overdone. Mbeki’s Aids denialist policies have already been scrapped.
Meanwhile the economy is growing at over 3%.”Zuma moved to relieve worries about job prospects yesterday, telling a Communist party gathering: “We will continue to work with business and labour to build a vibrant, resilient and sustainable economy.”
While private business is pulling its horns in, government has more than taken up the slack with infrastructure projects for the 2010 football World Cup.
This counts for little among the rattled middle class. “The great fear is that a far left government could paralyse the economy by adopting policies that chase away more investors and skilled people. This would cause job losses, growing social frustration and probably even higher levels of violent crime,” said Sholto Cross, a development expert.
“That’s the doomsday scenario because that would frighten away even more skills and investment. So the crisis would feed upon itself. What it all boils down to is that Motlanthe and Zuma are going to have to decide fairly soon whether or not to face down the hard left. It wouldn’t be that difficult; they have plenty of patronage to dispense, after all.”
Slabbert agreed: “We can all have opinions and quite likely the outcome will be better than many fear. But not only business but the great mass of ordinary young people with marketable skills like to feel a degree of certainty about future growth and stability. By definition there are few certainties out there right now.”
50: The average daily murder toll across South Africa
Source: South African police
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I hate to say it, but I give a good sigh of relief that I no longer live there. I left SA in 2000 at 33, after being car jacked and shot in the arm. Before I left, I looked at Argentina, Lebanon(I'm of Lebanese extraction), and Australia."Civilization" can't be "imported" to a ppl without their own.
Joe, Brisbane, Australia
I left SA,and glad I did,most people who are staying dont have or cant get any other passport so they have to stay in SA if you can get out do it before its to late, I thank my mother for my ticket out ( my UK passport) best wishes to all that stay, you will need it
Dolores, kent, UK
God Bless Ian from Auckland. If only more white South Africans thought like you. You have a really beautiful, awesome country. My message to all South Africans stand and fight for it don't run.
Caroline Hughes, Bournemouth, uk
James from oxon AFRICA is not a country.......
Here in America we learned it is a CONTINENT.
However, your assumption of natural resources is correct. Your score is 50%. Here in America that is a failing score. Before you respond negatively I must admit most Americans do not know where Africa is.
Hulton, Carol Stream, IL
Africa is not a country it's a continent, BrightSpark! And we gonna be just fine.
Amani, Cape Town, South Africa
Im bussy doing a recki, been in the states 4months, dont want to raise my kids as Yanks(trust me).I'm now in NZ and its misserable and backward, and Im homesick after 10 days.Stop bitching people, which we SA's are so good at doing, and start fighting for the awesome country we have.
Pray for SA.
Ian, Aukland, New Zaeland
Africa is one of the richest countries in resources yet is one of the poorest in the world. Doesn't make sense does it?
Somewhere some people are just not capable of ruinning their own countries.
James, oxon,
i will never leave or break all my ties with south africa , no matter what goes on it is a place that is full of oppertunities and yes thaer can me nothing better in life than to be able to support at care for the needy. I spend alot of time abroad but i love being home
richard, cape town, south africa
Before the Europeans arrived there was nothing there - no country to speak of. Perhaps it's heading back that way?
Paul Williams, London, England
Over the past decade there has been a massive loss of skills in almost every functional area. Nobody to maintaining the power, water and sanitation systems, or produce food on a large scale.
A healthy balance sheet and changes at the top are irrelevant when there's nobody left to make things work
IF, Cape Town, South Africa
Black,White?..................Wake up people
D O'Brien, frimley, U.K
To Matt and all other Einsteins:
Whites in South Africa is not part of the black democracy. They are excluded by law. The ANC remains a racist government with all it's anti-white laws and their raw hatred against whites. There was no change, only role swapping.
Chris, Welkom, RSA, (Not so) Freestate
I must saw i am black and me and my girlfriend has been looking at our options we are considering moving, simply because we are from the minority groups(Venda) who are constantly attacked and called names by Zulus and Xhosa.
Taban Matibe, Johhanesburg, South Africa
SA has done well not to follow Zimbabwe - yet. The same radical pressures exist to retake the country for the indigenous majority, and they will eventually prevail one way or another. It's a pity that the white minority didn't do more to avoid this situation, now they can only leave.
Colin, Malaga, Spain
Walman, how are you going to describe USA when all the banks are nationalised? As for SA, say goodbye and smile for the good times(online). What will be the difference? At least the last one to leave will not have to turn out the light - it's already off!
Dr Peter Langmead, Fringilla, Zambia
Eddie, you say the whites are to blame as is the case it seems always. When will most/some blacks take responsibilty for their own bad behaviour/decisions in the US and South Africa. Some comments from Africans here show that there are some black intellectuals that take responsibilty. Stop blaming!!
henri, London,
When whites colonised SA the pop was 3,000 bushmen. The Bantu were still North of the Orange River. If the land belongs to its rightful owners it is the bushmen, exterminated continent wide by the Bantu. If white rule was so bad why the immigration. Fact Bantu spread by fleeing their own violence.
keith bentham, Wigan, uk
Im amused by those lamenting the south africans "tyring to justify their reason to leave" - aren't they doing the exact same thing by justifying their reasons to stay? Or perhaps they just dont have the option to leave? Respect the choices of others. I, for one, am outa here...
Kerry, Cape Town, South Africa
Zuma deserves a chance, and his being anti-Mugabe, and in favour of the death penalty would get my vote. However, singing "bring me my machine gun" is not going to have the same effect as Nelson Mandela wearing the 'boks rugby jersey at the world cup.......
David Ashton, Bathurst, Australia
Don't get the idea for one second that it is only whites leaving. There are educated and highly skilled blacks, who don't happen to support the ANC, and are therefore sidelined, who are leaving, as are coloureds and Asians.
Rod Baker, Cape Town, South Africa
To Gil...
"One solution would be to give the Afrikaaners a part of South Africa where they can govern by themselves and are not dominated by blacks."
Perhaps you never heard of APART-heid. It was meant to keep the races apart in their own little niche. It wasn't very popular with non-whites.
Matt, Corona, CA, USA
It's good to see that the majority of negative comments posted come from people not living in SA!
Matu Kelly, Helsinki, Finland
Inevitably,the last bastion will fall the same way as all the other African Countries. It will be another Zimbabe, Kenya,Angola, Mozambique etc., etc. Of course it will then also be the whites fault for everything and the whites responsibility to throw money into these lost causes. How repetitive!
Pedro, London, UK
Have you considered exactly how offensive it is to publish an article that uses 'white flight' and 'brain drain' interchangeably?
Brenna, London,
wow...sounds like america.....
Tam, Sacramento , USA
in orde to create you need to destroy. the whites built south africa and the blacks are destroying it before the rebuit it. that's the tread. blacks cannot just emerge from raggs to assume the sweat of south african whites, THEY HAVE TO BUILD NOT INHIRET. 20/30 yrs blacks in south africa can own it
William Kasaija-Kuuku, Gaborone, Botswana
I live in South Africa.My wife and I will be emigrating within the next 6 months.After innumerable burglaries,a hijacking and having my sons throat slit for his cellphone, enough is enough.The optimists are in for a rude awakening.I wont spend the rest of my life in fear and our skills are going too
Sean, Pretoria/Tshwane,
So Eddie who do the Ethiopians have to blame?
haralambos, joburg,
Dan of Durban - I agree SA is a land of diversity - look at how many ways you can be murdered?
ben trovato , cape town ,
Where are all the young South Africans, you ask? Behind our books, studying. Not everyone is emigrating or looking for a reason to emigrate. A smooth transition of power is a sign of a healthy democracy. Not everyone is in a frenzy, that's our contribution to a peaceful transition on a civil level.
Reeza, Stellenbosch, South Africa
The Whites were blackmailed into this position by self-righteous twit countries who divested in them during apartheid. They are owed sanctuary now that S.A. has gone to hell in a handbasket. I'm all for Africa being all Black. Can Europe go back to being all White now? No?!! Why not?!!
Michelle, San Antonio, USA
How interesting that the doomsayers are predominantly out of the country. While people are talking about the changes, most people just went about their business and were fairly up-beat when they saw some lame-duck ministers had been moved out.
There are few places I would rather live than here.
Andy Harrison, Cape Town, South Africa
It continually amazes me all the expert wisdom from people who have never lived here or those that have left and have to justify why they have left. South africa ia a brilliant country full of the diversity that many in the Western World who do not want to believe success stories in Africa.
dan, durban,
It's not a given that Zuma will be the next President. He has yet to face the courts. Meantime we have a good man in charge. Motlanthe may become President.
Even more encouraging is the fact that the ANC is splitting, issue related politics, the sign of a maturing democracy, may win the day.
Dave, Knysna, South Africa
South African whites were fatally betrayed by De Klerk and the international limousine commies who wept & screamed until the nation the whites created was given to the incompetent. Nowhere in the world is there an advanced, prosperous black-run city, let alone a country - and this will never change.
James, Crimora, Virginia, U.S.
I'm a white lawyer from Cape Town (29). My wife's (32) a dermatologist. We won't ever leave Cape Town. The lifestyle is simply amazing - we're so priviledged and thankful and happy! Everyday I have the opportunity to help someone and give thanks for what I have. Hysteria be gone!!!! :-)
Kobus, Cape Town, South Africa
They need growth so...they turn to Communism? Good idea.
walman, Boston, MA
Things wouldn't been so bad if whites would not have kept blacks in poverty and ignorance for so long. They whites have nobody to blame but them selfs!!
Eddie, MILLERSVILLE, USA
all very well being so negative,but south africans are a resilient lot.we'll be rising again don't count us out for your article focuses on whites only as if the other citizens does'nt matter!
Terence, pretoria, south africa
I am a white South African and I'm not leaving ever - through all the ups and down, SA will always be beautiful - the white-middleclass has been very comfortable the past 50 years, just uncomfortable with not having control, it is the poor that should really be worried. Rather SA than the USA!
Stefan, Cape Town, South Africa
Africa wants to get rid of it's white population. Generally speaking, blacks don't accept that whites can be Africans and therefore don't want them in Africa. One solution would be to give the Afrikaaners a part of South Africa where they can govern by themselves and are not dominated by Blacks.
Gil, Funchal, Portugal
It's not a one-party dictatorship.The article quotes Zuma affirmed the govt "will continue to work with business & labour to build a vibrant,resilient & sustainable economy".Cause for investor confidence.Yet song "Bring Me My Machine gun"at rallies doesn't encourage peaceful attitudes in the young.
Joan Moira Peters, Whangarei UK Citizen, temp o/seas in New Zealand
unfortuately South Africa will go the rest of the way of Africa. a downward slide in poverty, anarchy, 'dictatorship of the people' and the international begging bowl.
for all of africa its a disaster.
Anton, Perth.,
The final domino , Africa Adeo.Get the financial aid ready for another starving population.
Ed Allen, Whitby, Canada
Sounds like things are going down the toilet already.
Stewie O' Riordan, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
I am afraid that it is only a matter of time before South Africa will start down the slippery slope of its neighbour Zimbabwe. Corruption will no doubt get worse and with the educated middle class moving out all will be left will be those who will blame the "whites" for their own failures- very sad.
Brian, kuala lumpur,