A wave of alarm swept through middle-class South Africa last week as President Thabo Mbeki was sacked by the ruling African National Congress and replaced by Kgalema Motlanthe, who has already presided over sweeping cabinet changes.

The new president is still remembered as a communist militant who urged that the country’s youth be “taught to hate capitalism”.

The real winner in the coup against Mbeki is Jacob Zuma. He will lead the ANC into next April’s election and is strongly backed by the powerful Communist party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, both of which favour radical left-wing policies. Polls show that business confidence has slumped to a seven-year low.

There has long been considerable evidence of “white flight” to cities in Britain, Australia, America and New Zealand. It is estimated that up to 20% of South Africa’s whites have emigrated since the advent of democracy in 1994.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Zuma’s rise, coupled with nationwide power cuts and a continuing crime wave, has led to a further massive brain drain. Polls show that 63% of South Africans have “seriously considered” emigration.

“Among my age group the chorus is absolutely insistent,” said Geoff Landsman, 25, a civil engineer. “You must go abroad. If at all possible equip yourself with a foreign passport. I have a Dutch one. I’ll leave by Christmas. I’m not saying I’ll never come back but I want to see if I can cut it abroad.”

Anna Davids, 62, an ophthalmologist, lamented: “There’s a whole generation missing. Look around. Where are the young white couples aged 25-45? At least two-thirds of them are gone.”

She said that affirmative action plans discouraged young whites from staying. “Everything’s loaded against young whites, no matter how well qualified they are.”

Crime, although said to be in decline, is still alarmingly high. Last year the country saw 18,487 murders, 36,190 rapes, 14,481 home invasions, 14,201 carjackings and 118,312 aggravated robberies.

Zuma has sought to calm the fears, but seems oblivious to the fact that appearing at celebrations as a Zulu warrior, replete with leopard skins and assegai, and singing “Mshini Wam” (Bring Me My Machine-gun) at party rallies does little to calm confidence.

Zapiro, the pen name of Jonathan Shapiro, South Africa’s favourite cartoonist, captured the mood last week with a drawing of Motlanthe being sworn in next to a heap of rubble with the wreckage of provincial government, investor confidence and the electricity supply system strewn high and the government itself teetering.

Wise voices caution against panic. “The ANC’s leaders are acutely aware that any hope of addressing the problems of poverty and unemployment depend on maintaining the country’s growth and stability,” said Frederik van Zyl Slabbert, the former opposition leader.

Professor Lawrie Schlemmer, South Africa’s leading social scientist, agreed: “The doom and gloom is overdone. Mbeki’s Aids denialist policies have already been scrapped.

Meanwhile the economy is growing at over 3%.”Zuma moved to relieve worries about job prospects yesterday, telling a Communist party gathering: “We will continue to work with business and labour to build a vibrant, resilient and sustainable economy.”

While private business is pulling its horns in, government has more than taken up the slack with infrastructure projects for the 2010 football World Cup.

This counts for little among the rattled middle class. “The great fear is that a far left government could paralyse the economy by adopting policies that chase away more investors and skilled people. This would cause job losses, growing social frustration and probably even higher levels of violent crime,” said Sholto Cross, a development expert.

“That’s the doomsday scenario because that would frighten away even more skills and investment. So the crisis would feed upon itself. What it all boils down to is that Motlanthe and Zuma are going to have to decide fairly soon whether or not to face down the hard left. It wouldn’t be that difficult; they have plenty of patronage to dispense, after all.”

Slabbert agreed: “We can all have opinions and quite likely the outcome will be better than many fear. But not only business but the great mass of ordinary young people with marketable skills like to feel a degree of certainty about future growth and stability. By definition there are few certainties out there right now.”

50: The average daily murder toll across South Africa
Source: South African police

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