Catherine Philp: Analysis
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Condoleezza Rice hit the nail on the head when she said that Robert Mugabe should have gone a long time ago. But having hung on this long, there is little sign that the “old crocodile” is ready to quit. His weary countrymen are resigned to his seeing it out until the end.
The international clamour for him to go may be growing louder, but in Harare, it simply sounds like one of those periodic crescendos that will soon fade away. Dr Rice, Desmond Tutu and the Kenyan President, Raila Odinga, may have increased their rhetoric in calling for his removal, but these are voices that have spoken out against Mr Mugabe many times before. The absence is of any new voices – or any that Harare has not long been deaf to.
South Africa holds the key to the crisis. Mr Odinga is correct in saying that Mr Mugabe could not survive Zimbabwe’s isolation from its southern neighbour. But even Jacob Zuma, leader of the African National Congress and a strong critic of Mr Mugabe, refuses to echo the call for him to go, insisting that any solution must be political and include power sharing with his rival, Morgan Tsvangirai.
Harare’s decision to call for international assistance for the cholera crisis is a calculated one, taken in the knowledge that the outside world cannot ignore such suffering. Zimbabwe’s neighbours will be mollified by this sensible appeal, which will help to prevent the disease from spreading across their borders. The pressure for them to act will be eased again.
The prospect of military intervention, even on a humanitarian level, looks more distant than ever. The violence that Mr Mugabe unleashed during the elections has receded. The pain inflicted on Zimbabweans now is the result of the country’s long, slow death and the crumbling of infrastructure and public services. Saving Zimbabwe will take years of rebuilding that can happen only with a cooperative government. Mr Mugabe has made clear he does not want foreign troops, even if there was a friendly country willing to send them. There is not.
The survival of the Mugabe Government defies logic. It provides none of the basic functions of state – security, welfare or representation – and yet limps on. Declaring an endgame for a regime of such tenacity is always risky – the economic implosion that could finish it off has been much predicted but never seen. Another waiting game is under way.
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