A single mother of five children describes the agonies of everyday life in Zimbabwe

Each morning and afternoon a nauseating ritual is performed in Harare as President Robert Mugabe travels in a heavily guarded motorcade between his home and State House. Police motorcyclists force traffic off the road to allow the presidential motorcade unimpeded progress through the crumbling streets of the capital.

Guarded by truckloads of soldiers, Mugabe sits in the back of a custom-built, armoured and gadget-equipped Mercedes. A small man in a black Savile Row suit, he is invisible behind the black-tinted windows. Woe betide anyone who gets in the way — even pointing at the motorcade can lead to imprisonment.

In a few days the people of Harare may be spared the twice-daily passage of their unpopular president, at least for a little while. Mugabe is due to take his traditional new year holiday with his wife Grace — notorious for luxury shopping — in the Far East. This has been their favourite destination since they were banned from Europe and America and most of their assets have been transferred there.

However, a question has arisen over their holiday this year. Zimbabweans and Harare-based diplomats are watching keenly to see whether Mugabe leaves the country. They will see his decision as a sign of how secure he feels in the face of intensifying outrage against his rule.

In the past few weeks, as Zimbabwe has battled economic disintegration and a ferocious cholera epidemic spread by the collapse of the water and sanitation systems, Mugabe has come under unprecedented pressure to quit.

He has reacted viciously. Before Christmas, security agents secretly arrested some 40 activists ranging from humanitarian workers to journalists, academics and opposition supporters. It now appears the agents are determined to link them to a trumped-up plot to overthrow the president. Last week police defied a High Court order to release eight of them into hospital.

Another matter that may give Mugabe cause to hesitate before leaving the country is the disunity within his ruling Zanu-PF party. Its annual party conference, which has just ended, was largely held in disarray with delegates drifting away. Mugabe had to apologise for delegates’ food being stolen — a sign of how desperate even his supporters have become.

While these developments suggest that Mugabe has his back to the wall like never before, his fiery rhetoric shows that his determination to stay in power through 2009 and beyond is undiminished. He has decided to rule without the opposition, even though Zimbabwe has been without a legal government since Zanu-PF lost the elections in March to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). He bases his legitimacy on having won a second presidential round in June amid massive intimidation.

Just before Christmas he reinforced his hard line, remarking that Zimbabwe is “mine, mine, mine”. But last week America piled on the pressure, indicating that it wanted the international community to impose greater sanctions against members of Mugabe’s government and entourage. It also dropped its support for power sharing between Zanu-PF and the MDC, saying the only solution to the economic and humanitarian crisis was for Mugabe to leave power.

Lord Malloch-Brown, Britain’s Africa minister, endorsed the American position and yesterday predicted that Mugabe would step down in 2009 because he had lost the support of the army. “We have seen difficulties around army pay day for the last two months,” he said. “In November troops actually rioted. There were reports of disturbances in the December pay day.”

He also said a serious outbreak of malaria was likely because of the collapse in public health measures, such as the distribution of free mosquito nets and the chemical spraying of public spaces.

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