THE distress that tonight’s dinner in Berlin has caused in capitals across Europe is hardly going to make the menu more palatable for Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder.

In their pique at being excluded Italy, Spain and Poland have conjured up a fantasy of the Big Three sitting down together in confident intimacy, to script the future of the European Union, as prime ministers of the smaller 22 countries bang impotently on the locked doors.

If only. You do not have to subscribe to the view that the Big Three want to dominate Europe to feel that it would not hurt the cause of progress if they did manage sometimes to agree. As it happens, the three supposed titans will sit down tonight to a long agenda on which there are very few points of consensus.

Above all, they face the wreckage of the constitution. At the turn of the year, no capital really wanted to look again at last year’s failure. But in the past month, Bertie Ahern, the Irish Prime Minister now holding the EU presidency, has been assiduously meeting his 24 counterparts, as has his Foreign Minister.

Tonight’s dinner will show whether there is appetite for a deal among Britain, Germany and France, the bare minimum for a new attempt.

It is now conceivable that a new deal could be struck within the Irish presidency. Last month, that was unthinkable. If there is to be another attempt, many will give the credit to Ahern.

He began, in any case, with a reputation as a cool and sophisticated negotiator, unlike his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi. In his steady sequence of quiet bilateral talks, he has methodically probed the room for compromise.

There is some room, it seems. Take, for a start, the question of how countries should make decisions in a club of 25 members, the issue which brought down the curtain in December. There is a hint that Spain and Poland might shift their positions, by a fraction. Both stood to lose most from the attempt to simplify the voting rules set in place in Nice in 2000, which inadvertently gave Spain and Poland rights almost equal to those of the big countries.

Until this month, both Spain and Poland had adamantly objected to plans to replace the Nice rules with “double majority voting”. Under this scheme, a Bill would have to be supported by a majority of the 25 member states, and by states representing 60 per cent of the EU population.

It would be foolish to expect any change in Spain’s position before its March 14 general election. But, at the same time, does José María Aznar, the Prime Minister, really want to be the man who brought down the constitution? Does his near-certain successor, Mariano Rajoy? Countries pressing for a deal hope that this is a vulnerable flank.

Poland is generally reckoned to be less flexible, given the Government’s own vulnerability, and the prominence it has given to the issue. But there is hope that Poland’s objections stemmed more from feeling that it was being treated as a junior member, particularly by France, than from any belief that double majority voting was inherently unfair. The test will be whether, after enlargement in May, Poland feels secure enough in its position as a full member to contemplate compromise.

Some attempts to broker deals have looked at whether the thresholds of double majority voting should be changed. Should it be 65 per cent, even a bit higher, to tempt those now opposed? The attraction to Poland and Spain — in theory — is that a higher threshold would more easily allow them to block moves by the bigger countries.

But the interest appears to be draining out of this option. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, the London-based think-tank, says: “I think it is now most likely that they will keep the existing numbers. If you start changing them, other countries will get upset.”

Even if Spain and Poland do shift on voting rights, however, the Big Three themselves may present other problems. Blair is thought sincerely to want a deal, but will have to fight all over again for his “red lines”, points that he says are unacceptable to Britain. The question is whether he wants a deal this summer.

Germany has its own reservations about other clauses, but on the whole, favours a push for a new deal.

However, above all there is France, and the question of whether Chirac wants a deal at all. He does not want to have to hold a national referendum on the constitution — although others in his Government might. It certainly would take little from France to provoke Spain and Poland again into opposition and bring the whole debate to a halt.

If Ireland decides that there is support for a new deal, it will put it to the EU’s capitals next month. But without the support of Britain, France and Germany, there is no chance.

If tonight’s dinner has as much importance as Italy, Spain and Poland have furiously assumed, then it will yield a clear sign about whether it is worth another attempt to write the constitution.

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