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His rival, the Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, warned Ukrainians not to take part in mass protests on election day. The Government fears they could snowball into an uprising such as Georgia’s “rose revolution” last year.
But pressure on the Government mounted as the United States threatened to take action against Ukrainian officials who tampered with results and 160 reporters from Ukrainian television stations issued a statement protesting against censorship. The exchanges set the stage for a showdown that could determine if this country of 48 million people draws a line under its Soviet past and turns towards Europe or slips back into the fold of an increasingly authoritarian Russia.
The contrast could not be greater between the two leading candidates to take over from President Kuchma, retiring after a decade in office. Mr Yushchenko, a former Prime Minister, wants Ukraine to join the EU and Nato and promises an end to the oligarchic capitalism, official corruption and human rights abuses that marked the Kuchma era.
“People have an amazing feeling right now that they are holding the future in their own hands, that they are in control and that no one can stop them,” he said.
Polls show that Mr Yushchenko’s Western-style election campaign, complete with catchy slogans, photogenic logos and a slick PR machine, has won over almost a third of the electorate despite having virtually no exposure on state media. At a rally this week in the town of Cherkasy, four hours’ drive from Kiev, he spoke off the cuff for an hour in colourful Ukrainian, prompting chants of “Yushchenko! Yushchenko!” from a crowd of about 10,000 people waving flags and banners.
Backstage, he told The Times that Mr Yanukovych — Mr Kuchma’s designated heir — could not win without cheating. “That’s why he is mobilising all his resources to falsify the result through cheating and intimidation,” Mr Yushchenko said, his face blotched and pockmarked by a mysterious illness.
He says his opponents poisoned him, possibly with a cocktail of viruses or a chemical agent, in one of many dirty tricks against his campaign. Regional airports have refused permission for his aircraft to land. Rally venues have been abruptly closed for renovations. Flyers have demonised him as Hitler and a puppet of the West.
Mr Yanukovych, by contrast, has had blanket positive coverage in state media and the explicit support of President Putin of Russia, who praised him live on Ukrainian television at the start of a strategically timed visit to Kiev this week. Mr Yanukovych promises to maintain Mr Kuchma’s policies, strengthen ties with Russia and make Russian an official language. He lacks his opponent’s charisma but appeals to the ethnic Russian minority in eastern Ukraine and to older voters nostalgic for the Soviet Union.
He speaks in blunt, sometimes crude, Russian at rallies reminiscent of Communist Youth League meetings. At a briefing for the foreign press this week, he lectured reporters for 20 minutes before taking just three questions, all cleared in advance.
“Some groups are calling . . . on people to come out on the streets on the day of the election and the day after the election. This call is placing illegal pressure on the electorate and the citizens of Ukraine,” he said.
Ukrainian officials accuse the opposition of plotting with the West to overthrow the Government and have pledged to break up protests by force if necessary.
Mr Yushchenko is backed by a network of non-government organisations and student groups, many funded by the West. The Serbian youth group Otpor, which helped to topple President Milosevic and to co-ordinate Georgia’s revolution, has been advising Ukrainian activists.
Western governments, while not explicitly supporting Mr Yushchenko, have raised concerns about state media bias and possible election fraud. A statement from the US mission to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe said: “If the election fails to meet international standards, a variety of measures to hold officials responsible for electoral misconduct accountable will be considered. Bilateral relations and integration into EuroAtlantic institutions will suffer.”
The question is whether Mr Yushchenko can summon enough people on to the streets. The Opposition hopes tens of thousands will gather outside the election commission tomorrow. Natalya Belitser, an analyst at the Pylyp Orlyk Institute of Democracy, said: “It’s unpredictable. Everything could happen peacefully or there could be large-scale unrest and even a military crackdown.”
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