THE US House of Representatives thinks that Pakistani rug-makers are more deserving of American aid than Turkish rug-makers. Without ceremony, Turkey was removed from the list of beneficiaries in a trade Bill before it was passed on Wednesday, an act of legislative sabotage that lifts the lid on the furious horse-trading surrounding the build-up to war with Iraq.

The bazaar economics which lavished up to $500,000 (£312,000) of aid on Pakistan, but denied Turkey a cent, has nothing to do with textiles and everything to do with rounding up both into President Bush’s “coalition of the willing”. Not for nothing has the group been dubbed the “coalition of the billing”.

Pakistan has one of six crucial votes on the UN Security Council that America, Britain and Spain on one side, and France, Russia and Germany on the other, are furiously courting. Pakistan, along with Chile, Mexico, Guinea, Cameroon and Angola, controls the fate of a second resolution.

Turkey is a case on its own, holding the key to the Pentagon’s preferred war plan for a northern front against Iraq. Denying Turkish rug-makers any help is designed as an immediate slap for Ankara’s decision not to allow 60,000 US troops on to its soil, and a warning of more to come if the Turkish parliament does not rethink its stance soon.

It is the Russians, however, with their multibillion-dollar trade agreements with Iraq, who stand to lose the most. A senior American diplomat in Moscow gave warning that the Kremlin could jeopardise its relations with any future US-installed government in Baghdad if it was seen to stand by Saddam’s regime in its final days.

“The Russians understand that their degree of involvement in post-Saddam arrangements will be significantly influenced by the degree to which they are seen as supporting, or not obstructing, on a resolution to the crisis,” he said. “I think they understand there could be negative consequences of a veto with respect to Russia’s interests (in Iraq).”

He added that Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organisation and other interests could be damaged “in the short term” if it voted against the motion on Iraq.

Around the rest of the Security Council table, America is wielding a mixture of carrots and sticks as it tries to round up the nine votes it needs for a majority. Chile is waiting for Congress to approve a lucrative free-trade deal with the US that is the result of a decade of negotiation. The decision this spring could hinge on which way it swings on Iraq.

Mexico is pursuing tariff negotiations with the US, while Bulgaria, which is a solid Security Council voice against Iraq, is optimistic about being granted the status of a “market economy”, a decision which would provide a huge boost domestically. Cameroon and Guinea are both eligible for preferential access to US markets through the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, but only if they refrain from engaging in “activities that undermine US national security or foreign policy interests”.

The message seems to be getting through. Guinea, one of the poorest countries in the world, which is chairman of the Security Council this month, has signalled that it will bow to Washington’s pressure. Although its opinions on foreign policy are usually ignored, there was quiet celebration in London and Washington when the Guinean Cabinet, meeting in the capital, Conakry, insisted that Iraq “conform scrupulously” to its UN obligations.

Angola, the former Marxist state, is also expected to join the Anglo-American position, largely because of its strong trading links with America, which imports most of the country’s offshore oil.

Only Cameroon is thought to favour the position taken by France, its former colonial master. Nevertheless, envoys from America and Britain have recently visited the country and Mr Bush intervened personally on Wednesday by lobbying the country’s leader in a telephone call.

Pakistan, America’s key ally in the war in Afghanistan and the struggle to track down al-Qaeda chiefs, has recently received a loan from the International Monetary Fund, thanks in large part to American support. But it is due to receive a further $305 million in direct US aid later this year, which may never appear if it opposes America at the Security Council.

The US also wants to show that going against Washington can provoke penalties. Earlier this week the Pentagon announced plans to move thousands of US troops from Germany to Eastern Europe, where support for Washington has been much stronger. Nikolai Svinarov, the Bulgarian Defence Minister, announced after a visit to Washington that his country might provide four or five bases for relocated US troops.

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